This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing Dolphins vs. the Giants for Fantasy Football Lineups. With just a few weeks left in the season, we have to begin assessing not only injuries and matchups, but also potential resting of stars for the long haul. All of it has a tremendous effect on our NFL DFS and season-long fantasy lineups. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 15 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Also be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants
Total: 46.5
Line: NYG -3.5
Dolphins passing game
A lot of people went to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and it didn’t exactly pay off. The Dolphins offense was carried by kicker Jason Sanders and his seven field goals while Fitzpatrick finished with 245 scoreless passing yards and an interception. Interestingly enough, his price jumped up $200 to $6,200 this week on DraftKings, which is going to be really difficult for me to get to, especially if he is without his top receiver.
The matchup definitely isn’t bad, as the Giants are allowing the fifth-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL to this point of the season (5.5 percent), while also allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers (21.0). They are also coughing up 2.21 points per drive this year, the sixth-most in the league. He is worth a look as a streaming option this week and if he has his top wideout, I actually might play him over Rodgers. But his price tag in NFL DFS contests is going to be difficult for me to get to.
DeVante Parker suffered a concussion last week and now he’ll need to pass the protocol in order to suit up on Sunday. If active, I don’t know how you get away from this guy, as Parker is still the WR11 in fantasy since Week 4. He’s developed a nice rapport with Fitzpatrick and the veteran quarterback has no issues forcing throws to his big-bodied receiver, as 20.9 percent of passes have gone into tight windows, the sixth-highest rate in football. Parker has done a good job of coming down with those passes, as his 51.9 percent contested catch rate is the ninth-best mark in football.
Not a member of Awesemo.com? Enjoy 50% off any weekly or monthly Awesemo+ package with promo code MATCHUPS.
The Giants, meanwhile, are allowing the sixth-highest completion rate in football at 67.2 percent, as well as 14.3 fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers, where Parker lines up 36 percent of the time. If he clears the protocol, Parker is an easy top-15 wide receiver.
Of course, if he sits, the Dolphins are going to be really short-handed at wide receiver. With Albert Wilson also suffering a concussion last week, the Dolphins are currently down to Allen Hurns, Isaiah Ford and recently-signed Mack Hollins as their healthy receivers. Ford led the team in catches (six), targets (nine) and receiving yards (92) last week and would be the starting receiver if Parker can’t play. He would also draw coverage from rookie corner DeAndre Baker, who has allowed 0.45 fantasy points per cover snap, 2.03 fantasy points per target, six touchdowns and 15.6 yards per reception this season.
Tight end Mike Gesicki is healthy, though he was basically non-existent last week, catching one of five targets for six yards. He’s still very involved, leading all tight ends in routes run (223) since Week 9, while ranking fourth at the position in targets during that same span (37). The Dolphins continue to essentially use him as a wide receiver, as no tight end in football has lined up in the slot more than Gesicki (73 percent), while he’s caught nearly 72 percent of his slot targets on the season. So while the Giants have been pretty good against the tight end position this year, remember that Gesicki is being used more like a slot receiver.
Dolphins running game
In their first game without Kalen Ballage falling forward for half a yard, the Dolphins mainly relied on NFL DFS community star, Patrick Laird. He played 82 percent of the snaps last week, while touching the ball 19 times. He totaled a mediocre 86 yards on those touches but Laird has legitimate PPR potential, seeing five targets in each of the last two games. Miami is calling pass 66.3 percent of the time on the year, the second-highest rate in football, which means Laird will have plenty of pass-catching opportunities. Still, I was surprised that the Dolphins didn’t give Myles Gaskin more run, especially in a lost season.
Laird is once again a low-end flex in PPR leagues and a viable cheaper play on a site like DraftKings. We just saw the Giants really struggle against the Eagles running backs in the screen game on Monday night, surrendering 10 catches for 93 yards to their two main backs.
Giants passing game
It was a tale of two halves for Eli Manning in his first game back last week. In the first half, he connected on a pair of long touchdown passes, entering the locker room with over 150 yards and two touchdowns. He and the Giants offense struggled in the second half, however, totaling 30 yards the rest of the way. Daniel Jones is still nursing an ankle injury, though at the moment, we don’t know who will start for New York.
If it is Manning again, you could look to him as a cheap NFL DFS play at home against the Dolphins. Miami is surrendering the most points per drive (2.59) and the highest passing touchdown rate (7.2 percent) in all of football. They are also only pressuring opposing passers 18.2 percent of the time, the lowest rate in football. That is very, very helpful to Manning and his statue-like tendencies.
Golden Tate returned from his one-game absence with a concussion, though he didn’t do much, catching just one of his five targets for 11 yards. Tate went back to his usual slot role, lining up there 86.7 percent of the time against the Eagles on Monday night. As a result, Sterling Shepard was only inside 13 percent of the time, though he was targeted a solid seven times. Over the course of his career, Shepard has been far less efficient when playing on the outside, though it might benefit him for this Week 15 matchup with the Dolphins.
Be sure to follow us on Twitter @Stokastic_Com.
Miami is surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to left wide receivers, where Shepard will line up for the majority of the game with Tate back. Miami has also allowed eight different 100-yard games to pass catchers this season, as well as the third-most yards per completion (12.2). Shepard is my favorite Giants receiver this week, though both he and Tate are high-end WR3 plays.
The story of last Monday night’s game was Darius Slayton, who continued his strong rookie season, catching five of eight targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns. Even with Tate and Shepard in the mix, it was great to see Slayton so involved, as he continues to serve as the downfield threat in this offense. Slayton is 15th in the league in yards per reception (15.7) and 16th in yards per target (9.6), while handling a team-high 31 percent of the air yards. The Dolphins have really struggled against the speedy perimeter receivers and Slayton certainly fits the bill. He’s the cheapest of the three Giants wideouts and has the most NFL DFS upside.
A foot sprain has kept Evan Engram out of the lineup for the last five games and it sounds like there is some pessimism regarding his availability the rest of the way. With both Engram and Rhett Ellison out since Week 11, Kaden Smith has played 95 percent of the snaps during that span, tied for the highest rate among all tight ends. He’s seen a respectable 19 targets over the last three games and is worth a look as a streaming option if you are really hurting at the tight end position this week.
Giants running game
The disappointing season continues for Saquon Barkley, who failed to find the end zone for the fifth consecutive game. Barkley has also been under 100 scrimmage yards in six of his last eight games, scoring two total touchdowns during that stretch. It has been very underwhelming, though I still believe Barkley is an elite talent. This Giants offensive line has done an awful job of providing him with running lanes, as Barkley is averaging just 2.0 yards before contact per attempt, 26th among all runners this season.
If there is any spot for him to break out of it, it would be this one, as the Dolphins are bottom-five in yards before contact allowed to running backs. They are stuffing just 13 percent of all runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Miami is also coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and Barkley is still second among all running backs in opportunity share (89.5 percent). I really believe this is the breakout week and at $7,700 on DraftKings, I’ll definitely be using him.
Click HEREÂ to go back to the matchups column.
