This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing Dolphins vs. the Jets for Fantasy Football Lineups. With just a few weeks left in the season, we have to begin assessing not only injuries and matchups, but also potential resting of stars for the long haul. All of it has a tremendous effect on our NFL DFS and season-long fantasy lineups. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 14 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Total: 45
Line: NYJ -5.5
Dolphins passing game
The legend continues. Ryan Fitzpatrick did whatever he wanted to against the Eagles awful secondary last week, torching them to the tune of 365 yards and three touchdowns. He was super fun to watch in this game and while it may seem crazy to trust him in the first round of your fantasy playoffs, Fitzpatrick has plenty of potential again this week. The Jets are already one of the more vulnerable pass defenses in the NFL and they could be without their top overall player in Jamal Adams, who is nursing an ankle injury.
New York has surrendered 20 fantasy points to four of the last six quarterbacks they have faced, a list that doesn’t include many big names. They are also allowing opposing offenses to find the end zone on 64.7 percent of red zone trips, the third-highest rate in football. Fitzpatrick is a great streaming option this week, though his $6,000 price tag on DraftKings is still a bit concerning for NFL DFS.
DeVante Parker continues to shine. His breakout season continued last week against the Eagles where he went off for 159 yards and a pair of touchdowns on seven catches. Since Week 6, Parker is third among all wide receivers in fantasy points, while also leading the AFC in receiving during that span (653). There is clearly a ton of big play potential here, as Parker is averaging 12.0 yards before the catch per reception, the 10th-highest mark in the league. He is also fifth in the league with 21 deep targets, while his 50 percent contested catch rate is eighth in football.
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This Miami passing game is very concentrated right now, as Parker has seen at least 10 targets in each of the last four games. Now he gets another good matchup against a bad Jets secondary that is coughing up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Parker is a strong WR2 once again this week.
Here in his second year, tight end Mike Gesicki is figuring things out. The athletic pass catcher has now found the end zone in consecutive weeks, seeing a solid 14 targets during that span. The Dolphins are using Gesicki as a wide receiver, as no tight end is operating out of the slot at a higher rate this season (73.8%). He is third among all tight ends in slot yards (307), fourth in slot targets (36) and seventh in slot catch rate (77.8 percent). With a healthy target share and plenty of explosiveness, Gesicki has emerged as a top-12 tight end option, especially against a Jets defense that is funneling everything to the pass. 76.2 percent of the yardage surrendered by the Jets has come through the air, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Dolphins running game
Kalen Ballage and his 1.8 yards per carry are now on injured reserve, opening the door even wider for sudden NFL DFS darling Patrick Laird. After Ballage left the game last week, Laird ended up playing 60 percent of the snaps. He touched the ball 14 times for 48 yards and a touchdown, while also adding a two-point conversion. Laird is not a special runner at all but at $4,100 on DraftKings, you aren’t playing him in NFL DFS for his work between the tackles. He caught four passes last week and ran a healthy 18 pass routes. The team did sign Zach Zenner and I imagine they will continue to take a hard look at Myles Gaskin but Laird seems to be locked in as the pass-catching back in an offense that is throwing the football 66.9 percent of the time, the second-highest rate in football.
Jets passing game
In another great matchup, Sam Darnold definitely let us down last week. Of course, he is in another great spot this week, hosting the Dolphins. Miami is allowing the highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL to this point of the season (7.3%), while no team is allowing more fantasy points per pass attempt than the Dolphins (0.60). The Dolphins are also pressuring the quarterback just 16.7 percent of the time this year, the second-lowest rate in football. They are also coughing up a league-high 2.63 points per drive, giving Darnold every opportunity to have a good game. He’s a viable streaming option and a borderline top-12 play but I really, really wish DraftKings didn’t price him all the way up to $6,000.
Robby Anderson has gotten it going over the last two weeks, hauling in 11 of 15 targets for 187 yards and a touchdown. In those two games, he’s averaged 14.4 and 21.5 yards per catch, two of his highest marks of the season. And it makes sense, as the Raiders and Bengals both struggle to rush the passer and as a result, allow a ton of big plays. That could be the case again here with the Dolphins, who are 31st in pressure rate but also surrender 12.1 yards per completion, the fourth-highest mark in football. We have seen these speedy perimeter receivers crush the Dolphins this season, as they have allowed seven different receivers to reach the 100-yard mark against them this season.
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Despite seeing nine targets last week, Jamison Crowder finished with just two catches for eight yards. He still has a healthy 23.2 percent target share on the season, the 19th-highest rate in football, while Darnold is targeting the slot 39.4 percent of the time this season. Miami is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season and Crowder got them for 8-83-1 back in Week 9.
Ryan Griffin has seen 33.3 percent of the Jets targets from inside the 10-yard line this season, the seventh-highest rate among all pass-catchers. He’s found the end zone in two of his last three games and has seen a healthy 15 targets during that span. Continue using him as a back-end TE1 for NFL DFS with solid touchdown equity.
Jets running game
It is another great matchup for Le’Veon Bell, yet I’m still not all that excited to play him. He’s just been so underwhelming this season, ranking 48th among all running backs in yards per touch (4.2). He has one breakaway run all year long while ranking 45th among 46 qualified rushers in yards before contact per attempt (1.2). Fortunately, the Dolphins are allowing 3.26 yards before contact per carry this year, the second-highest mark in football, while Miami is also coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The volume is still on Bell’s side, as he ranks third among all running backs in snap share (88.6%) and eighth in opportunity share (75.8%), while ranking inside the top-10 in both carries (184) and targets (67). Even in this smash spot, Bell still sets up as a back-end RB1. The ceiling just hasn’t been there this season.
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