This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing Falcons vs. the 49ers for Fantasy Football Lineups. With just a few weeks left in the season, we have to begin assessing not only injuries and matchups, but also potential resting of stars for the long haul. All of it has a tremendous effect on our NFL DFS and season-long fantasy lineups. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 15 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Also be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Total: 47.5
Line: SF -11
Falcons passing game
We saw another 300-yard game from Matt Ryan last week, his league-leading ninth of the season. Of course, a huge chunk of it came off a 93-yard touchdown but hey, it still counts. He has what seems to be a tough matchup on the road with the 49ers, though this defense is really banged up right now. There is a strong chance that they will be without cornerbacks Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams, as well as safety Jaquiski Tartt and defensive lineman Dee Ford. That would still make this a below average matchup, but not a death sentence. Ryan is already averaging 40.1 pass attempts per game and as an 11-point road dog, I expect him to be throwing quite a bit again here. The loss of Calvin Ridley certainly doesn’t help his case but at sub-$6,000 on DraftKings, I think Ryan is very interesting in tournaments.
Julio Jones hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3, as he’s been a bit underwhelming for the majority of the season. His 22.6 percent target share (23rd among WR) is very upsetting but perhaps that number goes up with Ridley now out for the season. Ridley saw 37 targets over his final four games, all of which now need replacing. Julio would greatly benefit from the absence of Sherman, who is allowing the fewest yards per reception among all corners this season (7.4), as well as just 1.45 fantasy points per target. At just $7,000 on DraftKings, I will be playing Julio in tournaments, especially if Sherman can’t suit up.
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Tight end Austin Hooper returned to the lineup after a three-game absence last week, catching two balls for 32 yards. He should be more involved this week with Ridley on injured reserve, especially in a game where the Falcons are likely playing from behind. The matchup is obviously less than ideal, as the 49ers are coughing up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends (7.4) but Hooper remains the only viable intermediate target in this offense. And with the 49ers pressuring the quarterback at the fourth-highest rate in football (28.9%), Ryan could have to get the ball out of his hands quickly this week.
Falcons running game
Devonta Freeman scored his first rushing touchdown of the season last week. Of course, that came against the Panthers, who allow every running back to find the end zone. Now he travels to San Francisco to take on a 49ers defense that is surrendering 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for the third-fewest in the league. Freeman is averaging a very strong 21 touches during his first two games back from injury, while catching four passes in both games, giving him a decent floor. But in this spot, against this defense, I highly doubt there is much of a ceiling in NFL DFS.
49ers passing game
I absolutely love this spot for Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is fourth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks (0.64), while ranking 10th in fantasy points per dropback (0.46) for the season. His skill players have been fantastic and electric, as Garoppolo is averaging 6.4 yards after the catch per completion on the year, the second-highest mark in football. That bodes extremely well for this matchup, as the Falcons are coughing up the second-most yards after the catch in all of football.
Atlanta is also sporting the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (19.1%), so Garoppolo should have plenty of time to find his receivers down the field. San Francisco has the highest implied team total of the slate and against an Atlanta defense allowing the fourth-most points per drive in the league (2.40), Garoppolo should have himself a very good game. He is one of my top NFL DFS quarterback plays of the week.
Emmanuel Sanders is coming off a crazy Week 15 outing. He caught seven of nine targets for 157 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown, but Sanders also threw a 35-yard touchdown on a trick play. Sanders was really struggling to produce prior to this game but his snaps went back up to 94 percent against the Saints. In this matchup, Sanders can be trusted as a high-end WR3 for your fantasy playoffs, though I do like Deebo Samuel a little more as an overall play.
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The Falcons have allowed 10 touchdowns to receivers lined up on the outside this year, while coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the left side of the formation (13.9). Samuel, meanwhile, lines up on the left 44 percent of the time and is already one of the most dangerous players in the league with the ball in his hands. His 7.3 yards after the catch per reception are good for second-best among all qualified receivers this season and like we already mentioned, the Falcons are allowing the second-most yards after the catch in football.
Samuel will also line up against Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed the second-most YAC among all cornerbacks (309). Oliver is also coughing up 0.42 fantasy points per coverage snap, the seventh-most on the slate.
Finally, perhaps no one is better after the catch than George Kittle, who showcased that skill-set last Sunday. He is second among all tight ends in YAC, while ranking first at his position in yards per target (10.1) and yards per pass route (4.03). Kittle has so much upside this week and should be viewed as one of the top-two tight ends on the NFL DFS board.
49ers running game
Raheem Mostert is the top back in San Francisco. He logged 60 percent of the snaps last week, touching the ball 12 times for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Mostert has been the team’s best back all year long, averaging six yards per carry and 6.7 yards per touch, first and second in the league, respectively. Head coach Kyle Shanahan recently stated that the team has “no choice” but to use him as the number-one back. As the lead option in an offense calling run at the league’s second-highest rate (50.1 percent), Mostert is suddenly a top-20 NFL DFS running back option in a solid matchup.
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