NFL Matchups: Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders Fantasy Football Preview

This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing Jaguars vs. the Raiders for Fantasy Football Lineups. With just a few weeks left in the season, we have to begin assessing not only injuries and matchups, but also potential resting of stars for the long haul. All of it has a tremendous effect on our NFL DFS and season-long fantasy lineups. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 15 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.

To read the FULL column, click HERE.


Also be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders

Total: 45.5

Line: OAK -6.5

Jaguars passing game

Gardner Minshew started to really struggle before Nick Foles took over a few weeks back and hasn’t been all that great since re-taking the starting job. The matchup this week is definitely favorable, however, as the Raiders are coughing up the second-most points per drive (2.54), as well as the most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.60). Oakland also ranks 29th in the league in pressure rate (20.1 percent), while allowing a seven percent passing touchdown rate, the second-highest mark in football.

They just allowed nearly 400 yards and three touchdowns to Ryan Tannehill last week and while you don’t love Minshew potentially being without his top receiver, the Raiders are bad enough for him to have a solid game. I like him as a mid-range DFS play this weekend, especially with 71.4 percent of the yardage surrendered by this defense coming through the air.

Breakout wide receiver D.J. Chark suffered an ankle injury and didn’t practice on Wednesday. He was spotted in a walking boot and it seems highly unlikely that he plays this week. If that is the case, Dede Westbrook would become a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 play for me. He’s seen seven, eight and nine targets over the last three weeks, hauling in a solid 19 passes. Against a bad Oakland secondary, he would be a very strong play if Chark sits out.

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Meanwhile, I will have a ton of NFL DFS interest in Chris Conley too. The higher-upside player, Conley is 11th in the league in yards per reception (16.6), while averaging over six air yards per target. And if Chark sits, Conley becomes the only deep threat in this offense, as Chark has accounted for 35 percent of Jacksonville’s air yards on the season, the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. Chark also third in the league with 25 deep targets, while his nine end zone targets are tied for the eighth-most in football.

Chark being gone would not only open up so many chances for Conley, but high-upside, high-leverage chances, which is what we love. At $3,600 on DraftKings, he is going to be one of my favorite NFL DFS value plays if Chark sits, especially against a Raiders defense that is coughing up the third-highest average depth of target in football (9.8), as well as the most yards per completion (12.7).

Jaguars running game

It was a bad game for Leonard Fournette last week but you still love the volume. His 18 touches were his fewest in a game since Week 11, but Fournette is still averaging 23.3 touches per game, the second-most in the league. He is sporting an 89.4 percent opportunity share on the year, the third-highest mark in the league, while only Christian McCaffrey has run more pass routes among running backs (420). Oakland started the season as a strong run defense but over the last four weeks, they are coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. And over the last three weeks, the Raiders are allowing 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game, the second-most in football during that stretch.

Raiders passing game

I wasn’t really on Derek Carr last week but he finished with a solid game, throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns, as that game got into a bit of a shootout early. His price has jumped from $5,000 to $5,600 on DraftKings and while this matchup isn’t awful, I like other guys around him more, including Minshew. The Raiders are very run-heavy in neutral game scripts and that is really how you beat this Jacksonville defense, so I worry about Carr’s upside here, as I normally do. I will say, however, that the Jaguars are allowing the most fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks (0.64), so Carr could easily take advantage of a team that has basically given up. But again, I just like other signal callers a bit more.

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Darren Waller has gone back to giving us a very nice floor over the last two weeks, posting stat lines of 6-73-0 and 7-100-0. You don’t love the fact that he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 8 but perhaps he starts to get more looks in the end zone with both Hunter Renfrow and now backup tight end Foster Moreau on injured reserve. His 23.7 percent target share is third-highest among tight ends, while he’s second at his position in receptions (72) and second in receiving yards (880). Waller is essentially a lock for 7-10 targets every week but it is fair to wonder if he has a huge ceiling in this slow-paced, run-heavy offense.

Over the last three weeks, Tyrell Williams has caught six balls for 62 yards. Not great, Bob. I really have no interest in him right now, as he also hasn’t scored since Week 8, while failing to see more than six targets in a game since Week 7. The value tier of receiver is going to be loaded this week, making it highly unlikely I get to Williams.

Raiders running game

Well, it sounds like Josh Jacobs is going to play this week. After missing last week’s game with the shoulder injury, Jacobs underwent an MRI to determine the severity of it. The MRI came back clean and despite having a bum shoulder, the Raiders are going to throw him out there in a meaningless game. Assuming Jacobs is starting for the Raiders, he starts for your fantasy team, especially in an elite matchup. The Jaguars have allowed five 100-yard rushers over the last six weeks, just allowing over 200 scrimmage yards to Austin Ekeler in Week 14. Jacksonville is also sixth in the NFL in missed tackles (101), while Jacobs is fourth in the league in yards after contact per attempt this year (2.8). His 61 avoided tackles on the ground are the most in football, too.

If Jacobs suffers a setback in practice or his shoulder starts bothering him, DeAndre Washington becomes the chalk at running back and an easy top-15 running back NFL DFS play. In Jacobs’ absence last week, Washington got the start and played 63 percent of the snaps, while touching the football 20 times to Jalen Richard’s nine. He’d be the lead back against a Jacksonville defense surrendering a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry.

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