NFL Matchups: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Preview

This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing Seahawks vs. the Panthers for Fantasy Football Lineups. With just a few weeks left in the season, we have to begin assessing not only injuries and matchups, but also potential resting of stars for the long haul. All of it has a tremendous effect on our NFL DFS and season-long fantasy lineups. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 15 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.

To read the FULL column, click HERE.


Also be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!


Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 48.5

Line: SEA -6

Seahawks passing game

Despite attempting 36 and 31 passes over the last two weeks (a significant amount for him), Russell Wilson has scored just 18 and 11.6 fantasy points. He also scored fewer than 12 fantasy points in Week 12 against Philadelphia, though he would have had two more touchdowns in that game if it weren’t for some drops. Still, Wilson is the QB24 in fantasy since Week 10, averaging a lackluster 14.9 fantasy points per contest during that span. Over the course of the season, Wilson has still been very efficient, averaging 0.57 fantasy points per dropback, the fourth-best mark among all signal-callers, so the NFL DFS upside is always there with him.

There’s nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Panthers are beginning to fall apart. Over the last three weeks, Carolina is coughing up 6.7 yards per play, the third-worst number in the league during that span. Wilson also leads the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line this season to zero interceptions, while the Panthers are allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on nearly 61 percent of red zone trips, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Wilson remains a borderline top-five play for me this weekend.

Well, at least he was on the score sheet this week. After posting a goose egg in Week 13, Tyler Lockett caught four balls for 43 yards in Week 14. He was targeted six times. Lockett got the first look of the game but it was once again an unimpressive game, as the big-play receiver has now been under 45 receiving yards in four straight games, while failing to find the end zone during that span.

It has been super frustrating but it still seems like Lockett is due for a big game, as he’s seventh in the league with 23 deep targets, while 27 percent of his targets have come 20 yards or more down the field. The matchup is middle of the pack and his recent play makes Lockett more of a boom-or-bust WR2 option in the second round of the fantasy playoffs. And at sub-$7,000 on DraftKings, he remains an intriguing GPP play in NFL DFS.

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D.K. Metcalf has been way more of a consistent fantasy option than I would have imagined heading into his rookie season. He has seen at least six targets in every game since Week 9 and during that span, Metcalf is WR21 in fantasy. The rookie has also reached at least 70 yards in four of his last five games, catching 27 of 38 targets with a 14.4 yards per catch mark during that stretch. That consistent usage has bumped Metcalf up to the weekly WR3 range, while his high-leverage looks give him massive weekly upside in NFL DFS tournaments.

Metcalf is still tied for the league lead with 14 end zone targets, handling 17.3 percent of Seattle’s end zone looks, the fourth-highest rate in the league. He is also 13th in football with 21 deep targets, while Wilson remains one of the more accurate deep passers in the NFL, ranking sixth in adjusted deep completion rate. Metcalf will likely draw coverage from James Bradberry, who is one of the better corners in football. The Panthers as a team, however, are coughing up a league-leading 15.1 receptions per game to opposing receivers.

Tight end Jacob Hollister hasn’t done much as of late but he’s still played 77 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, while seeing a solid 18 targets. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends but Hollister is a near every-down player tied to one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He’s a borderline top-12 tight end the rest of the way.

Seahawks running game

After a late-season surge, a torn ACL has ended Rashaad Penny’s season prematurely. It is a big loss to this team, as Penny was starting to find his groove and was way more involved as of late. In Weeks 12 and 13, Penny logged 46 percent of the snaps, while averaging 16.5 touches per game. He was touching the football on 50.8 percent of his snaps during that span, too. With Penny done for the year, Chris Carson, who was still getting a ton of work, will return to the 25-touch range most weeks, and he has an outstanding Week 15 matchup.

Carolina continues to get torched on the ground, surrendering the most rushing touchdowns per game on the season (1.8). Meanwhile, 58.5 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Panthers this season have come via the run, easily the highest rate in football. And over the last three weeks, they have allowed six running back touchdowns, while no team has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in more games this season (seven). Carson is a top-five running back option this week and a core NFL DFS play.

Panthers passing game

Kyle Allen tossed seven touchdowns and zero interceptions during his first four starts of the season. However, over his last seven games, he’s fallen off a cliff, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, while throwing nine touchdowns, 12 interceptions and losing three fumbles. He’s played poorly over the last two games too, though garbage time and rushing touchdowns have salvaged his day for fantasy purposes. Allen gets another decent matchup, as the Seahawks are sporting the fifth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (20.2 percent), while allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the league. Still, it is hard to want to get to Allen in Week 15.

D.J. Moore is coming off his worst outing since Week 8, yet he still gave you four catches for 81 yards. He is still averaging just under 100 receiving yards per game since Week 9 and leads all receivers in targets during that span, being targeted on over 15 percent of his snaps. Moore is now fourth in all of football with 121 targets, averaging 9.3 per game, while also ranking sixth in receptions (78) and fourth in yards (1,061). The Seahawks are 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season so the matchup is middling but Moore has established himself as a must-start, weekly top-10 play.

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It was another quiet game for Curtis Samuel last week but for whatever reason, I can’t get away from him in tournaments. This is still a guy with a 31.3 percent target share from inside the 10-yard line this season, which is the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. Samuel is also 10th in the league with 22 deep targets, while sporting 33 percent of the air yards, the 16th-highest rate among all receivers. And Samuel is still seeing plenty of opportunities, averaging a solid seven targets per game, while ranking third among all wideouts in routes run with 529. Moore, by the way, is second with 532.

With Greg Olsen out with a concussion last week, the Panthers stated that they would use a committee approach at the tight end position. That was not the case, as Ian Thomas ended up playing 86 percent of the snaps, while no tight end ran more routes on Sunday than Thomas (42). He was targeted 10 times, catching five of them for 57 yards and a touchdown. If Olsen can’t play again this week, you have to feel good about Thomas, especially against a Seattle defense that is surrendering the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends on the season (13.0), as well as the second-most yards per game to the position (70.6).

Panthers running game

It was another “down” game from Christian McCaffrey last week, who failed to find the end zone for the second straight week. However, he still caught 11 passes for 82 yards and has now been targeted a whopping 33 times over the last three weeks. With the playoffs no longer a destination, the Panthers might just try to get McCaffrey that 1,000/1,000 season. He has 1,220 rushing yards and 726 receiving yards with three games to go. McCaffrey still leads all running backs in opportunity share (91.7 percent) and targets (108) so keep viewing him as the clear top running back in all of fantasy football.

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