This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing Washington vs. the Packers for Fantasy Football Lineups. With just a few weeks left in the season, we have to begin assessing not only injuries and matchups, but also potential resting of stars for the long haul. All of it has a tremendous effect on our NFL DFS and season-long fantasy lineups. So let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 14 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers
Total: 42
Line: GB -13
Redskins passing game
The Redskins won their second straight game last week but once again, it had nothing to do with the play of Dwayne Haskins. The rookie signal-caller completed 52 percent of his passes for 147 yards and zero scores last week while taking five sacks. Even with the Green Bay pass defense struggling a bit during the second half of the season, Haskins isn’t someone that should be anywhere near your starting lineup, especially in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Meanwhile, you aren’t playing any pass-catchers from this offense for NFL DFS outside of maybe Terry McLaurin. And even that might be a stretch, as McLaurin is the WR47 in fantasy since Week 8. If the Redskins ever take shots down the field, McLaurin is going to be the guy, as he’s seen 44 percent of Washington’s air yards on the year, which is the highest rate in the league.
The Redskins are huge road dogs here, so this should be the first time in two weeks where they are forced to pass a lot, giving McLaurin a potential for double-digit looks. And I actually don’t hate the matchup against Kevin King, who hasn’t been playing all that well lately. In fact, since Week 10, King is coughing up 2.35 yards per coverage snap, the sixth-most among qualified cornerbacks. He has also allowed two touchdowns, a 123.5 passer rating and a reception every 6.3 coverage snaps during that span, the fourth-worst mark in the league.
Redskins running game
Washington’s ground attack was the reason they were victorious last week, as they pushed the Panthers front around all day long. Derrius Guice is coming off the best game of his young career, rushing for 129 yards and two touchdowns on just 10 carries. He showed a ton of explosiveness on a 60-yard run where he stiff-armed a Carolina defender into another dimension. There is no secret who the best back in Washington is but with archaic Bill Callahan calling the shots, it seems unlikely that he becomes a 20-touch back the rest of the way. Last week, Guice played just 30 percent of the snaps, the lowest mark among the three Washington running backs. Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson both logged 36 percent of the snaps.
Guice continues to show his elusiveness, avoiding 13 tackles on just 47 total touches this year, giving him PFF’s fourth-highest elusive rating in the NFL. The Packers are vulnerable on the ground, allowing 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for the third-most in the league, while 46.4 percent of the touchdowns scored against them have come via the run, the fifth-highest rate. Guice is a viable flex play and at sub $5,000 on DraftKings, is still worth a look in NFL DFS tournaments, despite the projected game script.
Packers passing game
Despite playing in snow, Aaron Rodgers torched the Giants last week to the tune of 243 yards and four touchdowns. Rodgers has been a bit inconsistent as an NFL DFS producer this season, but he has been able to destroy in favorable matchups like the Giants, Raiders, Chiefs and Eagles. He’s in another good spot this week, hosting the Redskins, who are allowing the seventh-most points per drive in the NFL (2.15). They are also allowing a 5.6 percent passing touchdown rate to this point, the sixth-highest mark in the league.
Despite having a down fantasy season, Rodgers is still top-10 in both fantasy points per dropback (0.47) and fantasy points per game (18.4) and over the last four weeks, Washington is coughing up 20.4 fantasy points per game to opposing passers, the fifth-most in the league during that span. There is some concern that the Green Bay running backs do most of the work here but I still have Rodgers ranked as my number-two quarterback of the week.
Be sure to follow us on Twitter @Stokastic_Com.
Man. It is so good to have Davante Adams back in our lives. After not finding the end zone in his first four games, then missing four more games and not scoring in his first two games back, Adams has now scored three times over the last two weeks. Rodgers has tunnel vision for his top pass-catcher, as Adams has been targeted on 20.4 percent of his snaps since returning from his toe injury in Week 9, the second-highest rate among qualified receivers. He has seen double-digit targets in every game, averaging 10.8 looks per game during that span.
Adams has four end zone targets since returning, tied for the fourth-most in the league, while also ranking fourth with 12 red zone targets. He’s seen a whopping 29 percent of Green Bay’s red zone looks since returning. Look for him to continue rolling this week, facing a very beatable Washington secondary that is allowing 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing receivers, tied for the fourth-most in football.
After debating who the number-two receiver in Green Bay was all offseason, it appears that the answer is Allen Lazard. Since Week 11, Lazard has played 61 percent of the snaps, leap-frogging Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has played just 33 percent. Geronimo Allison is still slightly ahead of Lazard at 65 percent of the snaps but Lazard has been the better, more explosive player, as five of his 22 receptions this year have gone for 20 yards or more. In a Rodgers-led offense with a high implied team total, Lazard is worth a look on DraftKings at $4,200.
Packers running game
If you played Aaron Jones last week in NFL DFS, you were tilting. He had a touchdown called back, was tackled at the one and had another big play called back due to penalty. It stinks but at the end of the day, Jones, who has been fairly touchdown dependent this year, has now been held out of the end zone in three of his last four games. And since the return of Adams, Jones’s pass-catching usage has diminished, seeing just 2.5 targets per game since Week 9. In Weeks 5-8, however, Jones was averaging 6.75 targets per game.
With Adams out, Rodgers didn’t trust any other receiver so he’d constantly check it down to the running backs. That’s not the case anymore and Jamaal Williams is stealing third-down work from Jones, too. Jones is still going to get the first crack at the goal line work, while the Redskins are allowing a healthy 3.7 red zone trips per game, the seventh-most in football. But there is no denying that his upside takes a hit with Adams back and Williams still very much in the mix, as he’s playing 46 percent of the snaps since Week 9.
Click HEREÂ to go back to the matchups column.
