Using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Wild Card Weekend DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using the Boom/Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Projections for DraftKings & FanDuel
*Percentages indicate Optimal Lineup Scores
Joe Mixon — DraftKings: 73.7%, FanDuel: 70.6%
Mixon missed the regular season finale due to health protocols but will be available for Saturday’s Wild Card matchup with the Raiders. He has been a true workhorse for the Bengals this season, averaging 18.25 carries per game. Mixon also ranks eighth in red-zone carries (39) and ninth among running backs in DraftKings points per snap (0.43). As a receiver he has caught 89.4% of his targets while running a route on 58% of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks.
Las Vegas has the seventh-worst graded run defense on PFF, and the Bengals present the highest implied team total of Saturday’s slate (27.25 points). Plus, they are 5.5-point home favorites. Mixon averaged 24.7 DraftKings points in the eight games in which Cincinnati was favored this season, including a 27.3-DraftKings-point showing against these Raiders in late November. Holding the highest projection among skill players in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, Mixon is a core play for Saturday’s short slate.
Darren Waller — DraftKings: 52.3%, FanDuel: 55.2%
At season-low price tags on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Waller is a must-play for Saturday’s slate. After missing six straight games with a knee injury, he returned last week and saw no limitations, logging 83% of the snaps. While the result was only two catches for 22 yards, Waller still racked up nine targets in the win over the Chargers. In the 11 games he has been active this season, Waller has been targeted on 24% of his routes, including 13 red-zone targets and a team-high 15 targets over 20 yards. He also has an 84% route rate.
Among tight ends Waller ranks sixth in DraftKings points per snap (0.23), and this is an outstanding spot for him against the Bengals. This season Cincinnati has given up the fourth-most catches (96), fifth-most yards (1,083) and sixth-most touchdowns (eight) to the tight end position. When these clubs met back in Week 11, Waller hauled in seven of his eight targets for 116 yards, resulting in a season-high 21.6 DraftKings points. He brings similar upside this Saturday and has a top-three optimal lineup percentage for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool.
Leonard Fournette — DraftKings: 69.6%, FanDuel: 61.6% After missing the final three games of the regular season with a hamstring injury, Fournette returned to practice this week and will be available for Sunday’s matchup with the Eagles. Before this recent absence, Fournette was thriving as the Buccaneers’ featured back. Since fully taking over as the starter in Week 4, he has handled 67.5% of the running back carries for Tampa Bay, including 34 red-zone attempts, while playing 67.1% of the snaps. Additionally, Fournette was one of the most utilized pass-catching backs in the league during this time, running a route on 63% of dropbacks and garnering a target on 23% of those routes. With 20.5 touches per start, Fournette averaged 21.7 DraftKings points per game during the Buccaneers’ four-game Super Bowl run last season. Tamps Bay should continue to heavily rely on him this postseason, particularly this Sunday, with Ronald Jones (ankle) doubtful and the Tampa Bay an 8.5-point home favorite over the Eagles. Fournette should receive a minimum of 20 touches, and Tampa Bay’s implied team total is the second highest on the slate (27.25 points). Furthermore, he is a -125 favorite to score a touchdown on BetMGM, which is the best odds of any skill player in this game. Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool is giving Fournette a slate-best ceiling among all skill players, and he is rating as the No. 1 value for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Update: Fournette is unfortunately not expected to suit up Sunday. Ke’Shawn Vaughn should now serve as the Bucs’ main rusher, making him a viable cheap option for this short slate. The 24-year-old is averaging a strong five yards per carry this season and is rating as a top-five flex value for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Awesemo’s projections.
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Elijah Mitchell — DraftKings: 38.1%, FanDuel: 28.8%
Relative to his large role as the 49ers’ workhorse back, Mitchell is far too cheap at only $5,500 on DraftKings. Mitchell averaged 18.8 carries in his 11 games this year, which ranks third in the league behind only Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook. Twenty-one of Mitchell’s rushes have come in the red zone, and he is averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Mitchell has seen at least 20 carries in five straight games, and the 49ers are competing in the highest total on the slate against the Cowboys (51 points) on Sunday. Mitchell has eclipsed 15 DraftKings points in six of 11 starts this season and has a top-three optimal lineup percentage score for DraftKings in Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool.
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