The wait is over and on tap for this Sunday is a full slate of 13 NFL games. Using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate, based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 1 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 1 DraftKings & FanDuel Optimal Lineup
Marquez Callaway — Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 20.3%, FanDuel 9.1%
The highest optimal lineup percentage score of the week for DraftKings goes to Callaway. At a near minimum $3,400 price tag, the wide receiver is standing out as a core value play for all formats. With Michael Thomas (ankle) on the PUP list and Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring) on IR, Callaway automatically becomes the No. 1 wideout in a Saints’ offense that should be forced to air it out against the Packers. Currently, the Saints are 3.5-point underdogs in this contest that presents a very healthy game total of 49 points.
The fearless Jameis Winston has been named the starting quarterback for the Saints for Week 1, and he and Callaway built a nice rapport during the preseason. Most notably in the preseason finale against the Jaguars, Callaway caught all five of his targets from Winston for 104 yards and two TDs. Thanks to his impressive play, Callaway was the highest graded wide receiver on PFF during the preseason for the entire NFL. While he is going to be chalky, ranking in the top-five in Awesemo’s ownership projections for DraftKings, rostering Callaway and differentiating yourself in various spots of your lineup is an optimal strategy for Week 1.
Travis Kelce — Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 15.2%, FanDuel: 22.6%
Via Awesemo’s Boom Bust tool, Kelce sports the highest optimal lineup percentage score of all tight ends this week. For FanDuel, the 31-year-old owns the highest score of any player on the slate, regardless of position. Last season, Kelce was incredible, ranking fifth in the NFL in catches (105) and receiving TDs (11). Furthermore, the tight end finished 13th in target share (25.3%), third in redzone target share (30.4%) and third in YAC (583). To open the 2021 season, Kelce and the Chiefs will be facing the Browns at home, competing in the highest game total on the slate at 54.5 points.
In this spot, no team competing this week holds a higher implied team total than Kansas City at 30 points. A year ago, the Browns were extremely susceptible to tight ends, giving up the fourth most DraftKings PPG to the position. In his lone matchup against this defense, Kelce torched the Browns for eight catches, 109 yards and a score. Lastly, whenever the Chiefs carried an implied team total of at least 30 points last season, the tight end was outstanding with 26 DraftKings PPG. Particularly for the always volatile Week 1, paying up for Kelce at the thin tight end position appears to be one of the best routes for roster construction.
Jalen Hurts — Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 8.0%, FanDuel: 6.3%
Based on optimal lineup percentage scores, Hurts is a top-five quarterback for both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. In his four starts last season, Hurts flashed elite upside. He threw for over 300 yards twice and averaged 11.5 carries for 68 yards per game. The quarterback produced eight total TDs over the four-game stretch, and finished the season seventh in fantasy points per drop back (0.62).
To kick off his sophomore season, Hurts is facing the Falcons in a game total that is up to 49 points. He should see plenty of volume with the Eagles as four-point underdogs, and this is a prime matchup for Hurts, considering Atlanta surrendered the fifth-most yards per attempt last season. With sub 10% ownership projections and reasonable price tags on both sites, the dual threat quarterback is a must-have in this potential shootout.
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