Using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 11 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using the Boom/Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 11 Optimal Lineups
*Percentages indicate Optimal Lineup Scores
Deebo Samuel — DraftKings: 16%, FanDuel: 10.9%
Projecting for sub-10% ownership on DraftKings, Samuel is a tremendous GPP target this week. Samuel was incredible on Monday, hauling in all five of his targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. Additionally, Samuel produced 36 yards and a touchdown on the ground in five carries. In total he finished with 30.3 DraftKings points against the Rams, who are PFF’s top-graded defense this season. This marked Samuel’s fourth showing of at least 25 DraftKings in his past six games, and he could be in line for some extra work as rusher again with Elijah Mitchell (questionable, finger) banged up. Nonetheless, as a receiver Samuel ranks fourth in the league in target share (31.6%) and leads the 49ers in route rate (91%). With this role he has been one of the most efficient players in the NFL, ranking first in yards after the catch (519), fifth in yards per reception (18.1) and fourth in DraftKings points per game among all skill players (23.5).
Samuel’s salaries simply do not reflect how productive he has been, and his terrific season will almost certainly continue against the Jaguars this Sunday. Jacksonville is giving up the sixth-most yards per attempt (7.6), and the 49ers’ implied team total is the sixth highest on the slate (26 points). Via Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, Samuel has a top-five ceiling on DraftKings regardless of position.
Samuel is garnering some ownership on DraftKings, but despite gaining some popularity throughout the week, he is still a solid value for his price, which Geoff Ulrich wrote about in his Week 11 NFL DFS Ownership, Grades & Values article.
Nick Chubb — DraftKings: 13.3%, FanDuel: 12.5%
After sitting out last week, Chubb is expected to be activated off the COVID-19 list and play this Sunday against the Lions. With Kareem Hunt (calf) still on the IR, there is direct path for Chubb to see a heavy workload in this dream spot. Prior to his quarantine, Chubb erupted for 137 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Week 9 blowout win over the Bengals, resulting in a season-high 33.3 DraftKings points. This season Chubb has been one of the most efficient backs in the league, ranking fourth in DraftKings points per touch (0.54). Facing a Detroit defense that is the ninth-worst-graded unit on PFF, the Browns carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (27.5 points) and are 11.5-point home favorites.
Chubb has scored 22.4 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 starts as a home favorite. With running back flooded with appealing options this week, Chubb’s ownership is expected to stay relatively in check on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Awesemo’s Ownership projections.
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Jaylen Waddle — DraftKings: 16%, FanDuel: 10.9%
Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start this Sunday, which is great news for Waddle. In the four full games Tagovailoa has started and finished this season, Waddle has led the Dolphins in route rate (91%) and has been targeted on a team-high 24% of those routes. He has turned this volume into 16.8 DraftKings points per game across those four contests, and on tap for Sunday is gorgeous matchup with the Jets. New York is yielding the second-most yards per attempt (8), and they are the worst-graded defense on PFF this season. In this spot the Dolphins’ implied team total is up to 24.3 points.
For DraftKings this week, Waddle is rating as a top-five value and has a top-five optimal lineup percentage score among receivers. Last but not least, he is slated for single-digit ownership, making Waddle a terrific way to differentiate in GPPs.
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