Using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate, based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 4 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel Optimal Lineup
Justin Jefferson – Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 7.3%, FanDuel: 11.2%
With low expected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jefferson is a must-have for GPPs this week. This season, the 22-year-old has run a route on 98% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and leads the Vikings with a 25.6% target share. Jefferson also ranks 14th in the NFL in air yards (333), has seen a team-high four targets over 20 yards and has obtained four red zone targets. Hosting the Browns, the Vikings are two-point underdogs, carry a 24.75-point implied team total and this tilt’s total is up to 51.5 points. While the Browns have been stingy on defense, ranking 10th in yards per attempt allowed (6.4), this strong game environment trumps any concerns we should have with this matchup for Jefferson.
The second-year wideout has been far more productive at home for his career, generating nearly double the fantasy points per game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Plus, of those home contests that presented a total of at least 50 points, Jefferson has generated 26 DraftKings points per game. Cousins has been stellar this season, with an 8:0 touchdown interception ratio that has led to him being the third-highest graded quarterback on PFF. Despite the tremendous efficiency, Cousins is slated for minimal ownership and pairing him and Jefferson together is a sharp move for tournaments.
Alvin Kamara – Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 17.7%, FanDuel: 21.8%
For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Kamara sports the highest optimal lineup score of all running backs for Week 4. On the menu for this Sunday is a home matchup with the Giants, who have given up the eighth-highest yard per rush this season (4.6). In this spot, the Saints are seven-point favorites and possesses a 24.25-point implied team total. So far this season, Kamara’s usage has been incredible. He ranks third in the NFL in carries per game (17.3) and sixth in red zone rushes (10). Additionally, Kamara has run a route on 73% of Jameis Winston’s dropbacks and has led the Saints with a 22.9% target share, including three red zone targets. Per Awesemo’s Advanced Stats, New Orleans ranks first in game script adjusted rush percentage, and as large home favorites, the Saints should feed Kamara 20-25 carries this week on top of his huge role as a receiver.
Since the start of last season, Kamara has provided 24.4 DraftKings PPG when the Saints have been favorited, and he holds the highest raw projection on the slate among all skill players, via Awesemo’s projections.
Darrell Henderson – Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 12.7%, FanDuel: 14.4%
Henderson missed Week 3 with a rib injury, but logged a full practice on Friday and is expected to be a full go for Sunday’s matchup with the Cardinals. Before the injury, the 24-year-old was handling a strong workload as the Rams’ top back. Henderson was logging 80.2% of the snaps and seeing 14.5 rushes per game, including seven red zone carries through the first two weeks. As a receiver, the back was running a route on 71% of Matthew Stafford’s dropbacks, with a 10.9% target share. Henderson has supplied a full DraftKings point per touch and finds himself in an elite spot this Sunday. Facing the Cardinals, the Rams’ implied team total is the third highest on the slate at 29.25 points, and this NFC West matchup’s total is the second highest on the board at 54 points. Furthermore, the Rams are 4.5-point home favorites and the Cardinals have been vulnerable on the ground, allowing the second highest yard per rush in the league (5.4).
Via PointsBet, Henderson is a -120 favorite to the find the endzone and he is the perfect pivot play off the very chalky Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. Henderson isn’t expected to crack double-digit ownership on either DraftKings and FanDuel, and owns the highest leverage score of the week for all running backs via Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool.
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