Using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate, based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 5 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 5 DraftKings & FanDuel Optimal Lineup
Ezekiel Elliot – Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 11.2%, FanDuel: 11.1%
Elliot is a superb target this week against the Giants. This NFC East matchup’s total is up to 52 points and the Cowboys boast a 29.5-point implied team total, both of which are high marks for this slate. Furthermore, Dallas is a seven-point home favorite, setting up a huge workload for Elliot. Via Awesemo’s Advanced Stats, Dallas ranks 10th in game-script-adjusted rush rate and Elliot is averaging 16 carries per game this season while playing 75.4% of the snaps.
Also, the running back currently ranks sixth in the league in yards per rush (5.34), sixth in red zone carries (13) and has run a route on 70% of Dak Prescott’s dropbacks. The Giants’ have been susceptible on the ground, yielding the seventh highest yard per rush (4.5) and Elliot is a lock to find the end zone this weekend. After opening the season against Tampa Bay’s elite run defense, the 26-year-old has generated four rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks, and is currently a -150 favorite to score against the Giants on Caesars Sportsbook. If you weren’t sold on Elliot yet, he has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points at a 74% clip when competing in a game total of at least 50 points for his career.
Jakobi Meyers – Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 14.6%, FanDuel: 13.8%
Meyers has quickly become Mac Jones’ favorite target and is underpriced for his strong role in this pass-heavy offense. With the rookie under center, the Patriots have relied on Jones’ arm, ranking dead last in game-script-adjusted rush percentage per Awesemo’s Advanced Stats. So far this season, Meyers leads the Patriots in route rate (97%), target share (25.8%) and air yards (366 yards). The wideout has also seen three red zone targets and six targets over 20 yards. Meyers has racked up double-digit targets in back-to-back games and now meets a Texans’ defense that has allowed the eighth-highest yard per attempt (7.8). In this spot, the Patriots carry a healthy 24.25-point implied team total, which is the ninth-highest of the 24 teams on the main slate.
Via Caesars Sportsbook, Meyers’ prop over/unders are set at 5.5 receptions and 60.5 yards, and the receiver also carries +150 odds to score a touchdown, which are the best odds among all the skill players in this contest. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Meyers is rating is as a top-10 receiver value, per Awesemo’s projections.
Marvin Jones – Optimal Lineup Percentage Scores: DraftKings: 5.3%, FanDuel: 6.5%
Jones is an excellent contrarian way to gain exposure to one of the best game environments of the week. This matchup between the Jaguars and Titans presents the third-highest total on the slate at 49 points. As 4.5-point underdogs, the Jaguars should be forced to air it out in this potential shootout, and the Titan have been very vulnerable against the pass this season, yielding the fourth highest yard per attempt (8.0). Operating as the Jags’ No.1 receiver, Jones has run a route on 94% of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks this season and handled a team-high 22.8% target share. Additionally, the veteran leads the team in air yards (359), targets greater than 20 yards (5) and has seen an elite 44.4% red zone target share, which ranks sixth in the NFL.
Opposing receivers have exposed the Titans for the second-most yards and a league-high eight touchdowns this season, and Jones is expected to come with low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in this beautiful spot.
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