Using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool, each player carries an optimal lineup percentage score, which is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup for that slate, based on Awesemo’s projections. Below are three of the players with the highest Week 9 DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineup percentage scores of the week using the Boom/Bust Tool. Check out all of the Awesemo expert tools and cheat sheets when making your NFL DFS picks this week.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 9 Optimal Lineup
Ezekiel Elliot – Optimal Lineup Scores: DraftKings: 18.7%, FanDuel: 16.1%
At home against the Broncos, Elliot is an elite option this week. The Cowboys have the second-highest implied team total on the slate (29.75 points), and this matchup’s total is the second largest (49.5 points). Plus, Dallas is a 10-point favorite. With 16.8 carries per game, Elliot has handled 62.4% of the Cowboys’ running back carries this season, including 19 rushes in the red zone. Furthermore, he has played 72% of the snaps, run a route on 67% of dropbacks, ranks 13th yards per attempt (4.84) and is fifth in touchdowns rushing (five).
The Broncos just traded away Von Miller, who is the sixth-highest-graded edge defender on PFF, and Elliot has been unstoppable as a home favorite throughout his career, averaging 21.8 DraftKings points per game. In fact, he has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in eight of his last 10 starts as a home favorite. Regardless of position, Elliot has the highest optimal lineup score for DraftKings this week, according to the Boom/Bust Tool.
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Alvin Kamara – Optimal Lineup Scores: DraftKings: 16.4%, FanDuel: 15.6%
Kamara is another stud running back that is rating highly in the Boom/Bust Tool this week. Per Awesemo’s Advanced Stats, the Saints rank 10th in game script-adjusted rush rate this season, and they should rely on their running game even more going forward, with quarterback Jameis Winston (knee) done for the year. Hosting the Falcons, the Saints present a 24-point implied team total, and they are 6.5-point favorites. Atlanta has given up the 10th-most yards per carry (4.4), and Kamara has been outstanding, with 23.5 DraftKings points per game in his last five starts. This season he is seeing 19 carries per game, which is 81.6% of the Saints’ running back carries, and he is also running a route on 67% of dropbacks and has a team-best target share (20.8%). Among all running backs, this is the best target share in the NFL, and Kamara also ranks ninth in red-zone carries (21).
Relative to this incredible role, which is arguably the best in the league at his position, Kamara is vastly underpriced. And when he has been a home favorite over the last two seasons, he has destroyed his opponents for 27 DraftKings points per game.
Marquise Brown – Optimal Lineup Scores: DraftKings: 6.2%, FanDuel: 5.9%
At low projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Brown is a tremendous GPP target. Facing the Vikings, Baltimore’s implied team total is the fourth largest on the slate (27.5 points), and this game’s total is the second highest (49.5 points). Brown has led the Ravens in target share (25.1%), including six red-zone targets, while running a route on 90% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks this season. Browns has especially been utilized as a deep threat, ranking second in the league in targets beyond 20 yards (19), fourth in air yards (908) and fifth in average depth of target (16.5).
With this being a tough spot for Mark Andrews, considering the Vikings have allowed the second-fewest receptions to tight ends this season, Jackson should rely on Brown even more so than usual this Sunday. Brown has recorded at least 19 DraftKings points in five of seven games this season and could be a slate winner in this projected shootout.
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