Awesemo Daily Fantasy Sports
Awesemo Fantasy Football
Awesemo Odds & Sports Betting
Awesemo Podcast Network
Awesemo Side Action
Odds Shopper by Awesemo
Connect with us

Articles NFL

Optimizer Groups: Week 11 Sunday NFL DFS Optimal Lineup Strategy on DraftKings & FanDuel – Sunday Update

Terry McBride

Published

on

Week 11 NFL DFS Optimizer Picks DraftKings FanDuel Groups stacking optimal lineup strategy advice predictions best bets free expert

Week 11 brings an interesting 12-game NFL DFS slate that is loaded with star-caliber talent. There is one major focus game for the field, the Chiefs and Cowboys are squaring off in a contest with a mammoth 56-point total and a spread of just 2.5. When we get a game with that high a total and that close a point spread, we can reasonably expect fireworks. With two other games totaled in the 50s and a few other spots leaning toward the passing attack in Awesemo’s Game Script Adjusted Stats, it seems there will be no shortage of upside spots for NFL DFS point-scoring this Sunday.

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within Fantasy Cruncher. All of the concepts and pairings included below can be applied to hand-building as well, the goal is to create lineups that have high scoring correlation and take advantage of combined outcomes within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

Fantasy Cruncher – New How-To Video

The uptick in questions related to the how-to aspects of Fantasy Cruncher along with several noteworthy new tools demanded a new how-to tutorial video. I put together the above review of all of Fantasy Cruncher’s advanced options with some basic how-to on the constructions, rules, limits, and groups that we use in this article. The tutorial also reviews all of Fantasy Cruncher’s new features and the important distinctions between the various sets of projections that are available.

Week 11 NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks – Sunday Update

Overview

The Week 1 article featured a deep dive into the general settings menu and various utilities within Fantasy Cruncher, it is still available for anyone who would like to refer back. We will maintain the list of rules and limits below throughout the season, with occasional tweaks, if needed. Each week sees yet another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in the process of creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still of critical importance to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential, as well as our optimal lineup rates and Boom/Bust potential. Getting to a strong mix of the most optimal positively leveraged plays will be a strong foundation for a large pool of tournament lineups.

DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules

This set of rules will force Fantasy Cruncher to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to always stack at least one skill player, ideally a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while also playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to truly deliver a ceiling score in most situations, otherwise the team that is ahead will simply slow down and run out the clock. These rules are applied by completing the sentences with selections from the drop-down menu, they follow a very straightforward logic. Exceptions can be made for teams at the bottom of the rule creation window. After a rule is set, click the blue bar to add it, it will appear at the bottom of the screen as a completed rule.

Get a risk free bet + 3 months FREE of Awesemo+ platinum all-access!

Week 11 NFL DFS Optimizer Picks DraftKings FanDuel Groups stacking optimal lineup strategy advice predictions best bets free expert

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it for each team via Groups)

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (this is more of a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limit Rules

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

Week 11 NFL DFS Optimizer Picks DraftKings FanDuel Groups stacking optimal lineup strategy advice predictions best bets free expert

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team

Limit RB from Same Team to one (one can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB,” but it is a personal preference for NFL DFS)

Construction

These groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player (by clicking the key icon next to his name), with the thinking that the quarterback play is the driving factor in which stack is utilized in that lineup. Built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback, so four groups per game. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the Week 1 groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, quite often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes then crated by settings, available salary and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Check out today's FREE DFS tool of the day

Sunday Updates

This week’s Sunday update includes a number of boosts and downgrade recommendations to control in-group exposures. With a few standout values at the running back position, it will be important to ensure that shares of, for example, A.J. Dillon, do not overcome all of the lineups that start with Aaron Rodgers at the quarterback spot and drive Green Bay stacks. We want Dillon in some of those lineups when creating a large pool for sorting entries, but not to the extent that he would appear without controlling exposures.


Latest NFL DFS Content


NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Week 11 Team Groups

The goal here is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Crunch far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table in Excel to filter to the best set of lineups for entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership on individual players within their team’s stacked lineups.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Arizona Cardinals

Key Player: Colt McCoy (… or maybe not. After Kyler Murray had been trending toward playing all week, reporting early on Sunday morning indicates that it will likely be Colt McCoy once again)

Setting: At least one

Group: Christian Kirk, AJ Green (+10%), Rondale Moore (+10%), Zach Ertz (-15%), Antoine Wesley (+30%), James Conner (DeAndre Hopkins is out for Week 11. James Conner is primarily included to control the number of lineups that feature him as well as a pass-catcher)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Tyler Lockett (+10%), DK Metcalf, Gerald Everett (+10%), Freddie Swain (+30%), Alex Collins (-15%)

Baltimore Ravens

Key Player: Lamar Jackson (Jackson is questionable with an illness, as of Sunday morning his status is supposedly a true 50/50. Tyler Huntley is the backup)

Setting: At least one

Group: Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay (+25%) (Marquise Brown is out for Week 11)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Marquise Goodwin, Damiere Byrd (+25%), Jakeem Grant (+25%), David Montgomery (-15%)

Buffalo Bills

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Stefon Diggs (+10%), Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Zack Moss, Dawson Knox (+15%) (Gabriel Davis can be added with a boost in large formats)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Jonathan Taylor (-15%), Michael Pittman Jr., T.Y. Hilton (+15%), Zach Pascal (+15%), Nyheim Hines, Mo Alie-Cox

Carolina Panthers

Key Player: Cam Newton (yup.)

Setting: At least one

Group: Christian McCaffrey (+15%), DJ Moore (-15%), Robby Anderson (+15%), Terrace Marshall Jr. (+25%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, DeAndre Carter (+15%), Adam Humphries (+15%)

Chicago Bears

Key Player: Justin Fields

Setting: At least one

Group: David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Marquise Goodwin (+15%), Damiere Byrd (+25%), Jakeem Grant (+25%) (Allen Robinson is doubtful for Week 11)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Player: Joe Burrow

Setting: At least one

Group: Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd (+15%), CJ Uzomah (+10%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Darren Waller (-15%), Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow (+15%), Bryan Edwards (+25%), DeSean Jackson (+25%)

Cleveland Browns

Key Player: Baker Mayfield (Mayfield is expected to give it a go, playing through several injuries)

Setting: At least one

Group: Jarvis Landry (-15%), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Q) (+15%), Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Rashard Higgins (+15%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: D’Andre Swift (-15%), TJ Hockenson, Kalif Raymond (+15%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (+15%), Trinity Benson

Dallas Cowboys

Key Player: Dak Prescott

Setting: Between one and two

Group: CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz (-10%), Michael Gallup (Amari Cooper is out for Week 11. Malik Turner (+25%) or Noah Brown (+35%) could see targets as deep format dart throws in the highest totaled game of the week)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce (-5%), Darrel Williams, Mecole Hardman (+15%), Byron Pringle (+25%), Demarcus Robinson (+25%)

Detroit Lions

Key Player: Tim Boyle (Jared Goff is out for Week 11)

Setting: At least one

Group: D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson (-15%), Kalif Raymond (+15%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (+15%), Trinity Benson (+35%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Jarvis Landry (-15%), Donovan Peoples-Jones (Q) (+15%), Austin Hooper, David Njoku, Rashard Higgins (+15%)

Green Bay Packers

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams (-15%), AJ Dillon (-35%), Randall Cobb (+25%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+25%), Marcedes Lewis (Aaron Jones is out, Dillon needs an aggressive in-group downgrade or almost every lineup will include him and Adams)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Dalvin Cook (-15%), Justin Jefferson (+15%), Adam Thielen (+25%), K.J. Osborn (+35%), Tyler Conklin

Houston Texans

Key Player: Tyrod Taylor

Setting: At least one

Group: Brandin Cooks (-15%), Danny Amendola (+25%), Nico Collins (+25%), Jordan Akins

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: A.J. Brown (-15%), Marcus Johnson (+25%), Anthony Firkser, Nick Westbrook (+35%), Chester Rogers (+35%)

Indianapolis Colts

Key Player: Carson Wentz

Setting: At least one

Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., T.Y. Hilton (+15%), Zach Pascal (+25%), Nyheim Hines, Mo Alie-Cox

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders (+15%), Zack Moss, Dawson Knox (+25%)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Player: Trevor Lawrence

Setting: At least one

Group: Marvin Jones Jr., Dan Arnold (-15%), Laviska Shenault Jr., Jamal Agnew (+15%) (James Robinson is likely to play, he comes up in less than 10% of lineups in a typical Jaguars locked crunch if left out of the group so his status will not greatly impact group distributions. If John Brown is active he can be added as a dart throw in large formats)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Deebo Samuel (-15%), George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk (+15%), Jauan Jennings (+15%)

Kansas City Chiefs

Key Player: Patrick Mahomes

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Darrel Williams, Mecole Hardman (+25%), Byron Pringle (+25%), Demarcus Robinson (+35%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson (+35%), Malik Turner (+35%)

Las Vegas Raiders

Key Player: Derek Carr

Setting: At least one

Group: Darren Waller (-15%), Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards (+25%), DeSean Jackson (+35%), Zay Jones (+35%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Joe Mixon (-15%), Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins (+15%), Tyler Boyd (+15%), CJ Uzomah

Miami Dolphins

Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa

Setting: At least one

Group: Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki (-15%), Albert Wilson (+35%), Mack Hollins (+35%), Preston Williams (+35%) (the final three receivers can take a far more aggressive bump to force additional shares in what is projected to be one of the higher-volume passing games this week)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Michael Carter (-10%), Corey Davis (+15%), Jamison Crowder (+15%), Elijah Moore (+35%), Ryan Griffin

Minnesota Vikings

Key Player: Kirk Cousins

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson (+15%), Adam Thielen (+15%), Tyler Conklin, K.J. Osborn (+25%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams, AJ Dillon (-25%), Randall Cobb (+15%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+15%), Marcedes Lewis

New Orleans Saints

Key Player: Trevor Siemian

Setting: At least one

Group: Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Tre’Quan Smith, Adam Trautman (-15%) (Alvin Kamara will miss Week 11)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: DeVonta Smith (+15%), Dallas Goedert (Q) (-15%), Quez Watkins (+15%), Jalen Reagor (+25%)

New York Jets

Key Player: Joe Flacco (he’s as surprised as we are)

Setting: At least one

Group: Michael Carter (+10%), Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Elijah Moore (+25%), Ryan Griffin (Braxton Berrios can be added in deep formats. Flacco is an oddball value play this week)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Myles Gaskin (-15%), Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki (-15%), Albert Wilson (+25%), Mack Hollins (+25%), Preston Williams (+25%)

Philadelphia Eagles

Key Player: Jalen Hurts

Setting: At least one

Group: DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert (-20%), Quez Watkins (+10%), Jalen Reagor (+25%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Tre’Quan Smith, Adam Trautman

Seattle Seahawks

Key Player: Russell Wilson

Setting: At least one

Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf (+10%), Gerald Everett, Freddie Swain (+25%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Christian Kirk (+15%), AJ Green (+15%), Rondale Moore (+15%), Zach Ertz (-10%), James Conner (-15%), Antoine Wesley (+35%)

San Francisco 49ers

Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo

Setting: At least one

Group: Deebo Samuel (-15%), George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Jeff Wilson (-25%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: James Robinson (Q) (-35%), Marvin Jones Jr., Dan Arnold (-15%), Laviska Shenault Jr., Jamal Agnew

Tennessee Titans

Key Player: Ryan Tannehill

Setting: At least one

Group: A.J. Brown (-15%), Marcus Johnson (+25%), Anthony Firkser, Nick Westbrook (+35%), Adrian Peterson (-25%), D’onta Foreman (-25%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola (+25%), Nico Collins (+25%), Jordan Akins

Washington Football Team

Key Player: Taylor Heinicke

Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurin (-15%), Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Carter (+15%), Adam Humphries (+15%), John Bates (-25%) (Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones are out for Week 11)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore (-10%), Robby Anderson (+25%), Terrace Marshall Jr. (+35%)


Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!


If you’re interested in other NFL DFS tools for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and daily fantasy football stacking. View our FanDuel NFL rankings and our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings. We also have NFL DFS showdown projections and showdown ownership projections. Take a look at our NFL depth charts, inactives list and starting line-ups.

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

React App

Sign up to Receive Expert DFS Advice & Exclusive Offers From Awesemo

Subscriber Counter

We respect your email privacy

More NFL