The Week 14 NFL DFS slate features an 11 game schedule with only one contest carrying a game total of more than 50 points. That one is, of course, the last to kick off in the afternoon between the Buccaneers and Bills, with two of the top-end teams in the league squaring off and dropping numerous major upside pieces onto the board for NFL DFS lineup building and team stack creation. Naturally, that game is drawing a massive amount of attention in projected ownership, getting to alternate primary stacks or building differentiation into the lineups that use the popular stacks is of critical importance on a slate such as this one.
This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within Fantasy Cruncher. All of the concepts and pairings included below can be applied to hand-building as well, the goal is to create lineups that have high scoring correlation and take advantage of combined outcomes within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
Fantasy Cruncher – New How-To Video
The uptick in questions related to the how-to aspects of Fantasy Cruncher along with several noteworthy new tools demanded a new how-to tutorial video. I put together the above review of all of Fantasy Cruncher’s advanced options with some basic how-to on the constructions, rules, limits, and groups that we use in this article. The tutorial also reviews all of Fantasy Cruncher’s new features and the important distinctions between the various sets of projections that are available.
Week 14 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks – Sunday Update
Overview
The Week 1 article featured a deep dive into the general settings menu and various utilities within Fantasy Cruncher, it is still available for anyone who would like to refer back. We will maintain the list of rules and limits below throughout the season, with occasional tweaks, if needed. Each week sees yet another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in the process of creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still of critical importance to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential, as well as our optimal lineup rates and Boom/Bust potential. Getting to a strong mix of the most optimal positively leveraged plays will be a strong foundation for a large pool of tournament lineups.
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules
This set of rules will force Fantasy Cruncher to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to always stack at least one skill player, ideally a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while also playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to truly deliver a ceiling score in most situations, otherwise the team that is ahead will simply slow down and run out the clock. These rules are applied by completing the sentences with selections from the drop-down menu, they follow a very straightforward logic. Exceptions can be made for teams at the bottom of the rule creation window. After a rule is set, click the blue bar to add it, it will appear at the bottom of the screen as a completed rule.
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it for each team via Groups)
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (this is more of a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limit Rules
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (one can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB,” but it is a personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction
These groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player (by clicking the key icon next to his name), with the thinking that the quarterback play is the driving factor in which stack is utilized in that lineup. Built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback, so four groups per game. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the Week 1 groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, quite often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes then crated by settings, available salary and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Sunday Updates
This week’s Sunday Update includes a wide range of recommended boosts, but fewer downgrade requirements than we typically see. A few outlier running backs are drawing massive ownership shares in crunches on both sites when they are left uncapped, so be wary of the overall distribution of players like Ezekiel Elliott across all groups. These running backs are included in their team and run-back groups typically with a downgrade to control the in-group exposures, but nothing is currently in place to prevent them from appearing in most of all other lineups in a crunch; this is where randomness and ownership caps are used for additional layers of control. All active/inactive news as of the mid-morning is included.
Latest NFL DFS Content
- Want to Learn How to Win a DraftKings Milly Maker With Stokastic Sims? Steve Buzzard Will Tell You How
- PrizePicks, Sleeper & Underdog Cheat Sheet: Best More/Less Picks Today for NFL (February 11)
- DraftKings NFL Cheat Sheet: Super Bowl Sims Picks | George Kittle
- NFL Super Bowl 58 DFS Picks: 49ers vs. Chiefs (February 11)
- NFL DFS Captain Picks for Super Bowl 58: Rashee Rice, George Kittle & More
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Week 14 Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Sunday Update
The goal here is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Crunch far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table in Excel to filter to the best set of lineups for entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership on individual players within their team’s stacked lineups.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: Between one and two
Group:Â Cordarrelle Patterson (+15%), Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage (+15%), Tajae Sharpe (+50%), Olamide Zaccheaus (+50%) (Calvin Ridley is out again for Week 14)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (+25%), Brandon Zylstra (+50%), Tommy Tremble
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At least one
Group:Â Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman (+35%), Sammy Watkins (+35%), Devin Duvernay (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Donovan Peoples-Jones (+25%), Austin Hooper, Ja’Marcus Bradley (+50%), Rashard Higgins (+50%)
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least one
Group:Â Stefon Diggs (+10%), Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders (+15%), Dawson Knox (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans (+10%), Rob Gronkowski, Breshard Perriman (+25%), Leonard Fournette
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At least one
Group: DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (+35%), Brandon Zylstra (+50%), Tommy Tremble, Chuba Hubbard (Christian McCaffrey is out for Week 14)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cordarrelle Patterson (+15%), Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage (+15%), Tajae Sharpe (+25%), Olamide Zaccheaus (+25%)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Joe Burrow (P)
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Joe Mixon (P), Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins (P), Tyler Boyd (+15%), C.J. Uzomah (+15%) (Mixon and Higgsins are expected to play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Deebo Samuel (P), George Kittle (-15%), Brandon Aiyuk(+15%), Jauan Jennings (+50%), Jeff Wilson (-35%), JaMycal Hasty (-15%)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt (+15%), Donovan Peoples-Jones (+25%), Austin Hooper, Ja’Marcus Bradley (+50%), Rashard Higgins (+50%), Nick Chubb (-15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews (-10%), Rashod Bateman (+35%), Sammy Watkins (+35%), Devin Duvernay (+50%)
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player:Â Dak Prescott
Setting: Between one and two
Group:Â Ezekiel Elliott (-25%), CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz (-10%), Michael Gallup (+10%) (Tony Pollard is most likely out for Week 14. Cedrick Wilson can be added for massive field tournaments)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group:Â Antonio Gibson (-25%), Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic (Q), Ricky Seals-Jones (-10%), DeAndre Carter (+15%), Curtis Samuel (Q) (+15%)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one
Group: Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jermar Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds (+15%), Kalif Raymond (+15%), Brock Wright
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least one
Group: Jermar Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds (+15%), Kalif Raymond (+15%), Brock Wright (De’Andre Swift is out for Week 14)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Javonte Williams (-25%), Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick (+15%)
Houston Texans
Key Player: Davis Mills
Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks (Q), Nico Collins (+25%), Brevin Jordan, Pharoah Brown, Chris Conley (+25%), Davion Davis (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group:Â DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, Freddie Swain (+25%), DWayne Eskridge (+50%)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson, Marvin Jones Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr. (+15%), Laquon Treadwell (+25%), James O’Shaughnessey
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group:Â Nick Westbrook (+15%), Julio Jones, Anthony Firkser, Geoff Swaim (+50%), Cody Hollister (+50%), Chester Rogers (+35%)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least one
Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Darrel Williams, Byron Pringle (+35%), Mecole Hardman (+50%), Demarcus Robinson (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Hunter Renfrow, Zay Jones (+25%), DeSean Jackson (+25%), Bryan Edwards (+25%), Foster Moreau, Josh Jacobs (-10%)
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least one
Group: Hunter Renfrow, Zay Jones (+25%), DeSean Jackson (+25%), Bryan Edwards (+25%), Foster Moreau, Josh Jacobs (-10%) (Darren Waller is out for Week 14)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Darrel Williams, Byron Pringle (+25%), Mecole Hardman (+50%), Demarcus Robinson (+50%)
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Jared Cook, Joshua Palmer (+25%), Jalen Guyton (+25%) (Keenan Allen is out for Week 14)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Saquon Barkley (-25%), Sterling Shepard (Q), Kenny Golladay (Q), Darius Slayton, Evan Engram
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Taysom Hill
Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara (+15%), Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (Q) (+25%), Kenny Stills (+50%), Juwan Johnson
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group:Â Elijah Moore (Q), Ty Johnson, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole Sr. (+25%), Denzel Mims (+25%), Braxton Berrios (+35%)
New York Giants
Key Player: Mike Glennon (Daniel Jones is out again for Week 14)
Setting: At least one
Group: Saquon Barkley (+10%), Sterling Shepard (Q) (+25%), Kenny Golladay (Q) (+25%), Darius Slayton (+25%), Evan Engram (Shepard and Golladay are both expected to play on Sunday)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler (-15%), Mike Williams, Jared Cook, Joshua Palmer (+35%), Jalen Guyton (+35%)
New York Jets
Key Player: Zach Wilson
Setting: At least one
Group: Elijah Moore (Q), Ty Johnson, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole Sr. (+15%), Denzel Mims (+15%), Braxton Berrios (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara (-15%), Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway (+15%), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (Q) (+15%), Kenny Stills (+50%), Juwan Johnson
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Deebo Samuel (P), George Kittle (-15%), Jeff Wilson (-10%), JaMycal Hasty, Brandon Aiyuk (+15%), Jauan Jennings (+35%) (Elijah Mitchell is out for Week 14, Jeff Wilson draws major exposure if not manipulated in groups)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Joe Mixon (P), Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins (Q), Tyler Boyd (+15%), C.J. Uzomah (+10%)
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least one
Group: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, Freddie Swain (+35%), DWayne Eskridge (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks (Q), Nico Collins (+35%), Brevin Jordan, Pharoah Brown, Chris Conley (+50%), Davion Davis (+50%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans (+10%), Rob Gronkowski, Breshard Perriman (+35%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs (+10%), Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders (+15%), Dawson Knox, Gabriel Davis (+35%)
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Nick Westbrook, Julio Jones, Anthony Firkser, Geoff Swaim, Cody Hollister (+35%), Chester Rogers (+35%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson (-15%), Marvin Jones Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr., Laquon Treadwell (+15%), James O’Shaughnessey (-10%)
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Taylor Heinicke
Setting: At least one
Group: Antonio Gibson (-15%), Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones, Adam Humphries (+35%), DeAndre Carter (+35%), Curtis Samuel (P) (+35%) (J.D. McKissic is doubtful to play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott (-35%), CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper (+15%), Tony Pollard (Q), Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup (+25%)
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
[NFLPAGE]