The first-ever Week 18 regular season slate features a split with two games on Saturday Night (Saturday version of this article) and a huge 13-game Sunday main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The main slate is loaded with opportunities for NFL DFS roster construction, despite a Vegas board that includes several chasmic point spreads and no game totaled above the 48-points on the board in the Seattle vs Arizona contest. Still, with a wide-ranging list of players who will be absent creating values from all sides, there are plenty of opportunities to make differentiated plays that have upside while also helping access combinations of some of the highest-priced stars on the slate.
This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within Fantasy Cruncher. All of the concepts and pairings included below can be applied to hand-building as well, the goal is to create lineups that have high scoring correlation and take advantage of combined outcomes within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
Fantasy Cruncher – New How-To Video
The uptick in questions related to the how-to aspects of Fantasy Cruncher along with several noteworthy new tools demanded a new how-to tutorial video. I put together the above review of all of Fantasy Cruncher’s advanced options with some basic how-to on the constructions, rules, limits, and groups that we use in this article. The tutorial also reviews all of Fantasy Cruncher’s new features and the important distinctions between the various sets of projections that are available.
Week 18 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks – Sunday Update
Overview
The Week 1 article featured a deep dive into the general settings menu and various utilities within Fantasy Cruncher, it is still available for anyone who would like to refer back. We will maintain the list of rules and limits below throughout the season, with occasional tweaks, if needed. Each week sees yet another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in the process of creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still of critical importance to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential, as well as our optimal lineup rates and Boom/Bust potential. Getting to a strong mix of the most optimal positively leveraged plays will be a strong foundation for a large pool of tournament lineups.
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules
This set of rules will force Fantasy Cruncher to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to always stack at least one skill player, ideally a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while also playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to truly deliver a ceiling score in most situations, otherwise the team that is ahead will simply slow down and run out the clock. These rules are applied by completing the sentences with selections from the drop-down menu, they follow a very straightforward logic. Exceptions can be made for teams at the bottom of the rule creation window. After a rule is set, click the blue bar to add it, it will appear at the bottom of the screen as a completed rule.
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it for each team via Groups)
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (this is more of a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limit Rules
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (one can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB,” but it is a personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction
These groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player (by clicking the key icon next to his name), with the thinking that the quarterback play is the driving factor in which stack is utilized in that lineup. Built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback, so four groups per game. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the Week 1 groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, quite often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes then crated by settings, available salary and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Sunday Updates
The Sunday update includes some best guesses at situations, as well as any confirmed status news in the current projection set. This week more than ever, paying attention to news pre and post-lock will be critical. There are a number of running backs included in groups and a large number of in-group boosts and downgrades to shuffle distribution. In cases with teams such as the Packers, where the primary skill players are not expected to play the entire game, the groups are configured to deliver fewer shares of players like Davante Adams, favoring instead the backups. These situations are unpredictable and only for those with enough risk tolerance for the situation.
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NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Week 18 Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel
The goal here is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Crunch far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table in Excel to filter to the best set of lineups for entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership on individual players within their team’s stacked lineups.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Zach Ertz (-15%), Christian Kirk, A.J. Green (+15%), James Conner (-15%), Antoine Wesley (+35%), Greg Dortch (+50%) (Rondale Moore is out for Week 18)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Rashaad Penny, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett Freddie Swain (+50%) (Will Dissly can be added for differentiation)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Cordarrelle Patterson (+25%), Kyle Pitts (Q) (-10%), Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus (+35%), Tajae Sharpe (+35%), Hayden Hurts, Mike Davis (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara, Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Tre’Quan Smith (+15%), Adam Trautman (+35%), Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Juwan Johnson (+50%)
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Tyler Huntley (Lamar Jackson is out for Week 18)
Setting: At least one
Group: Marquise Brown (-15%), Mark Andrews (+15%), Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay (Q) (+50%) (Sammy Watkins can be added as a low-volume tournament dart throw if desired, he would need a major boost to land in any lineups)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Najee Harris (+10%), Diontae Johnson (+15%), Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, Ray-Ray McCloud (+35%), James Washington (+50%)
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs (+10%), Cole Beasley (+15%), Dawson Knox (+20%), Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie (+50%), Devin Singletary (Emmanuel Sanders is out for Week 18)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Carter (-30%), Jamison Crowder (-10%), Keelan Cole Sr., Jeff Smith (+35%), Tyler Kroft (+35%), Denzel Mims (+50%)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: At least one
Group: DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (Q) (+15%), Brandon Zylstra (+15%), Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Cyril Grayson (+15%), Tyler Johnson (+15%), Breshard Perriman (+50%), Cameron Brate (+50%)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: At least one
Group: David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson II, Cole Kmet, Damiere Byrd (+50%), Marquise Goodwin (+50%), Jimmy Graham (+125%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook (-15%), Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn (+25%), Tyler Conklin, Dede Westbrook (+50%)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Brandon Allen (Joe Burrow will sit out Week 18)
Setting: At least one
Group: Ja’Marr Chase (+15%), Tee Higgins (+10%), Tyler Boyd (+20%), C.J. Uzomah (Q) (-35%), Mike Thomas (+30%), Trenton Irwin (+50%) (it is difficult to recommend this passing attack with most of the starters seemingly unlikely to play a full game. Running back Joe Mixon will miss Week 18.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Nick Chubb (-35%), Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones (+15%), Austin Hooper, David Njoku (Q), Rashard Higgins (+25%)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Case Keenum (Baker Mayfield will sit week 18)
Setting: At least one
Group: Nick Chubb (-10%), Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones (+25%), Austin Hooper, David Njoku (Q), Rashard Higgins (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah (Q) (-35%), Mike Thomas (+35%), Trenton Irwin (+50%)
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Jared Goff (Goff is expected to return for Week 18)
Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds (Q), Kalif Raymond, Brock Wright (Q)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams (+25%), Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+10%), Allen Lazard (+10%), Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree, Josiah Deguara, Equanimeous St. Brown (+10%) (Rodgers and Winfree are the most likely to see action, the primary Packers skill players will largely rest in Week 18. This group is set up to return only a limited number of shares of Adams and other more familiar Packers receivers after the application of the boosts with their low point-per-dollar projections. It will be important to pay attention to active/inactive status)
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Jordan Love (Aaron Rodgers is expected to start but he is projected for under 10 fantasy points and seems unlikely to play a significant amount of the game. However, that is guesswork and Rodgers is more than capable of posting a relevant score in a limited number of possessions)
Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams (+25%), Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+10%), Allen Lazard (+10%), Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree, Josiah Deguara, Equanimeous St. Brown (+10%) (Rodgers and Winfree are the most likely to see action, the primary Packers skill players will largely rest in Week 18. This group is set up to return only a limited number of shares of Adams and other more familiar Packers receivers after the application of the boosts with their low point-per-dollar projections. It will be important to pay attention to active/inactive status)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds (Q), Kalif Raymond, Brock Wright (Q)
Houston Texans
Key Player: Davis Mills
Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins (+25%), Brevin Jordan, Danny Amendola (+50%), Chris Conley (+35%), Pharaoh Brown, Rex Burkhead
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown, Julio Jones (+25%), Nick Westbrook (+35%), Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Carson Wentz
Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor (-15%), Michael Pittman Jr. (-10%), T.Y. Hilton (+25%), Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal (+25%), Mo Alie-Cox, Jack Doyle
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Marvin Jones Jr., Laquon Treadwell, Laviska Shenault Jr., Dan Arnold, Tavon Austin (+50%)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: At least one
Group: Marvin Jones Jr., Laquon Treadwell, Laviska Shenault Jr., Dan Arnold, Tavon Austin (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor (-25%), Michael Pittman Jr. (-10%), T.Y. Hilton (+15%), Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal (+15%), Mo Alie-Cox, Jack Doyle
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: Between one and two
Group: Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson Jr., Ben Skowronek (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings (+50%)
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: At least one
Group: Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe +35%) (Isaiah Ford, Albert Wilson, and/or Mack Hollins can be added with boosts here in tournaments as low-owned low-volume plays)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jakobi Meyers (Q), Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor (Q), Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (+50%)
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn (+15%), Tyler Conklin, Dede Westbrook (+35%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Montgomery (-15%), Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson II, Cole Kmet, Damiere Byrd (+50%), Marquise Goodwin (+50%), Jimmy Graham (+125%)
New England Patriots
Key Player: Mac Jones
Setting: At least one
Group: Jakobi Meyers (Q), Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor (Q), Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe (+35%) (any of the minor WR options from the Miami group above can be added as dart throws in large-field tournaments as well)
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Taysom Hill
Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara (+30%), Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Tre’Quan Smith (+35%), Adam Trautman (+50%), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (+15%), Juwan Johnson
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts (Q) (-10%), Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus (+50%), Tajae Sharpe (+50%), Hayden Hurts
New York Giants
Key Player: Jake Fromm
Setting: At least one
Group: Saquon Barkley (+15%), Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton (+25%), Pharoh Cooper (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Antonio Gibson (-25%), Terry McLaurin, John Bates, Adam Humphries (+25%), Cam Sims (+25%)
New York Jets
Key Player: Zach Wilson
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Carter (+25%), Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole Sr. (+10%), Jeff Smith (+10%), Tyler Kroft, Denzel Mims (+50%) (Braxton Berrios is doubtful for Week 18)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley (+10%), Dawson Knox (+25%), Gabriel Davis
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least one
Group: Najee Harris (+15%), Diontae Johnson (+15%), Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth (-15%), Ray-Ray McCloud (+35%), James Washington (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews (+15%), Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay (Q) (+50%)
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: Between one and two
Group: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Gerald Everett, Will Dissly (+75%), Freddie Swain (+50%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Zach Ertz (-25%), Christian Kirk, A.J. Green (+15%), Antoine Wesley (+25%), Greg Dortch (+50%)
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo (Q)
Setting: At least one
Group: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (-15%), Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings (+75%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson Jr. (+15%), Ben Skowronek (+50%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Cyril Grayson (+10%), Tyler Johnson (+10%), Breshad Perriman (+50%), Cameron Brate (+50%) (this lineup currently includes Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Le’Veon Bell, and Giovani Bernard in projections at running back, check back Sunday morning for any confirmations or changes)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (Q) (+15%), Brandon Zylstra (+25%), Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown, Julio Jones (+25%), Nick Westbrook (+25%), Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins (+25%), Brevin Jordan, Chris Conley (+50%), Danny Amendola (+50%), Pharaoh Brown
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Taylor Heinicke
Setting: At least one
Group: Antonio Gibson (-15%), Terry McLaurin, John Bates (-10%), Adam Humphries (+25%), Cam Sims (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Saquon Barkley (-15%), Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton (+25%), Pharoh Cooper (+35%)
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