Awesemo Daily Fantasy Sports
Awesemo Fantasy Football
Awesemo Odds & Sports Betting
Awesemo Podcast Network
Awesemo Side Action
Odds Shopper by Awesemo
Connect with us

Articles NFL

Optimizer Groups: Week 4 Sunday NFL DFS Optimal Lineup Strategy on DraftKings & FanDuel – Sunday Update

Terry McBride

Published

on

Week 4 of NFL DFS action brings a 13-game main slate on Sunday afternoon, with five of those contests totaled for more than 50 points on the board in Las Vegas. The list of potential options and premium stacking opportunities is exhaustive, there are several excellent opportunities to exploit positive leverage on a highly-ranked stack. The NFL Top Stacks tool is one of the site’s best resources for finding under-owned upside for NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. The NFL Boom/Bust Tool is also highly valuable, it provides a player-by-player breakdown of the slate by the probability of being the top positional option. With ownership and an optimal lineup rate included, it is easy to parse the stacking opportunities by potential leverage against the field, which the tool also includes. Combining Awesemo’s NFL DFS tools with our rules and groups in the optimizer should yield a diverse set of well-built highly projected lineups that will be excellent options for GPP play.

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within Fantasy Cruncher. All of the concepts and pairings included below can be applied to hand-building as well, the goal is to create lineups that have high scoring correlation and take advantage of combined outcomes within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

Fantasy Cruncher – New How-To Video

The uptick in questions related to the how-to aspects of Fantasy Cruncher along with several noteworthy new tools demanded a new how-to tutorial video. I put together the following review of all of Fantasy Cruncher’s advanced options with some basic how-to on the constructions, rules, limits, and groups that we use in this article. The tutorial also reviews all of Fantasy Cruncher’s new features and the important distinctions between the various sets of projections that are available.

Week 4 NFL DFS Optimizer Picks & Groups

Overview

The Week 1 article featured a deep dive into the general settings menu and various utilities within Fantasy Cruncher, it is still available for anyone who would like to refer back. We will maintain the list of rules and limits below throughout the season, with occasional tweaks, if needed. With the knowledge that we will already be without several key skill players across the league this week, there are significant opportunities for options from further down the depth chart to shine, as they step into a more premium role in an uncharged offense. Looking for potential plays to exploit opportunities that the field is blind to is a key for winning roster constructions. The groups included below are created by running a process of crunches while paying attention to weekly target volume and touches, and making adjustments as needed. Notes are included where they are relevant, they are updated and more substantive in the Sunday morning version of this article.

DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules

This set of rules will force Fantasy Cruncher to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to always stack at least one skill player, ideally a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while also playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to truly deliver a ceiling score in most situations, otherwise the team that is ahead will simply slow down and run out the clock. These rules are applied by completing the sentences with selections from the drop-down menu, they follow a very straightforward logic. Exceptions can be made for teams at the bottom of the rule creation window. After a rule is set, click the blue bar to add it, it will appear at the bottom of the screen as a completed rule.

Week 4 NFL DFS Optimizer Picks Groups stacking optimal lineup strategy advice predictions best bets free expert

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it for each team via Groups)

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (this is more of a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limit Rules

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

Week 4 NFL DFS Optimizer Picks Groups stacking optimal lineup strategy advice predictions best bets free expert

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team

Limit RB from Same Team to one (one can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB,” but it is a personal preference for NFL DFS)

Construction

These groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player (by clicking the key icon next to his name), with the thinking that the quarterback play is the driving factor in which stack is utilized in that lineup. Built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback, so four groups per game. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the Week 1 groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, quite often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes then crated by settings, available salary and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Get expert advice to help you compete this Fantasy Football season on Awesemo's Fantasy Football YouTube channel

Sunday Updates

Numerous updates have been applied to the groups below. These include coverage of both the current news for any in/out situations, although there are a number of lingering question marks on the board, and keeping an eye on the news is going to be important. The update also includes recommended boosts and negative adjustments for players within their groups, this is to create a better balance of exposures across a large compiled pool of lineups that will then be sorted via other means than the optimizer.

NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Week 4 Team Groups

The goal here is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Crunch far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table in Excel to filter to the best set of lineups for entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership on individual players within their team’s stacked lineups.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Arizona Cardinals

Key Player: Kyler Murray

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Chase Edmonds (+10%), DeAndre Hopkins (+15%), Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore (+15%), A.J. Green, Maxx Williams

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson Jr. (Q) (-25%), Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson Jr., DeSean Jackson (+20%)

Join AWESEMO+ today!
Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

Atlanta Falcons

Key Player: Matt Ryan

Setting: At least one

Group: Calvin Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Davis, Olamide Zaccheaus, Kyle Pitts (Hayden Hurst and Tajae Sharp can be added for deep formats)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson (Q), Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel (+15%), Adam Humphries (+10%), Dyami Brown (+35%)

Baltimore Ravens

Key Player: Lamar Jackson (Q)

Setting: At most one (changed to at most, rules will still force at least 1, this will prevent a second)

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown (+10%), Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay (+35%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Courtland Sutton (-10%), Tim Patrick (+15%), Noah Fant, Albert Okwuegbunam

Buffalo Bills

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox (+25%) (Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie are borderline plays for deep formats with +25% boosts, the running backs lack volume in the passing game)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Brandin Cooks, Mark Ingram II, Jordan Akins, Anthony Miller, Chris Conley (Brandin Cooks is the priority and arrives as such in crunches)

Carolina Panthers

Key Player: Sam Darnold

Setting: At least one

Group: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson (+10%), Terrace Marshall Jr. (+10%), Chuba Hubbard, Tommy Tremble (Christian McCaffrey is out for Week 4, Dan Arnold was traded to Jacksonville)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Amari Cooper (+10%), CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott (-25%), Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz

Chicago Bears

Key Player: Justin Fields (Andy Dalton may return to his starting role on Sunday, the Bears are currently calling this a game-time decision)

Setting: At least one

Group: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Kalif Raymond (+15%), D’Andre Swift (Q), T.J. Hockenson (+15%), Quintez Cephus (+15%)

Cleveland Browns

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Odell Beckham Jr. (+10%), Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper (-5%), Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins (David Njoku can be added for large field contests. Nick Chubb is not a major factor in the passing game)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Dalvin Cook (Q), Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen (+10%), K.J. Osborn, Tyler Conklin

Our BEST NFL Express Pass EVER! Get full access to player and ownership rankings, showdown tools and data, and so much more for only $3.95 weekly.

Dallas Cowboys

Key Player: Dak Prescott

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Ezekiel Elliott, Cedrick Wilson (+15%), Dalton Schultz (Blake Jarwin is playable in deeper formats as well but Schultz dominated tight end passing volume with seven targets to Jarwin’s two last week)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: D.J. Moore (-10%), Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr., Chuba Hubbard, Tommy Tremble

Denver Broncos

Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater

Setting: At least one

Group: Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick (+15%), Noah Fant, Albert Okwuegbunam

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown (+10%), Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay (Ty’Son Williams and Latavius Murray can be added here if inclined toward running backs)

Detroit Lions

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: At least one

Group: Kalif Raymond, D’Andre Swift (Q) (+10%), T.J. Hockenson (-10%), Quintez Cephus, Amon-Ra St. Brown (+25%), Trinity Benson (+25%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery (-10%), Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin

Green Bay Packers

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb (Adams can be nudged down with a negative boost, but I prefer getting a significant amount of this pairing. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is out, Amari Rodgers can be added for the deepest formats)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson (P), Pat Freiermuth, James Washington, JuJu Smith-Schuster (P) (Chase Claypool is out)

Houston Texans

Key Player: Davis Mills

Setting: At least one

Group: Brandin Cooks, Mark Ingram II, Jordan Akins, Anthony Miller (+25%), Chris Conley (+25%) (Cooks is the major priority in this passing game, it is fine to just use him and move on here)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox (+10%)

Indianapolis Colts

Key Player: Carson Wentz

Setting: At least one

Group: Michael Pittman Jr., Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Myles Gaskin (-15%), DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Will Fuller

Kansas City Chiefs

Key Player: Patrick Mahomes

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Travis Kelce (-10%), Tyreek Hill (+10%), Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson (+15%), Byron Pringle (+25%)

Check out today's FREE DFS tool of the day

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith (+10%), Jalen Reagor (+10%), Dallas Goedert, Quez Watkins, Kenneth Gainwell

Los Angeles Rams

Key Player: Matthew Stafford

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Darrell Henderson Jr. (Q), Van Jefferson Jr., Tyler Higbee, DeSean Jackson (+15%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Chase Edmonds, DeAndre Hopkins (+10%), Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore (+10%), A.J. Green, Maxx Williams

Miami Dolphins

Key Player: Jacoby Brissett

Setting: At least one

Group: Myles Gaskin, DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Will Fuller

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Michael Pittman Jr., Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell

Minnesota Vikings

Key Player: Kirk Cousins

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Dalvin Cook (Q), Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen (+25%), K.J. Osborn, Tyler Conklin

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr. (+15%), Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones

New Orleans Saints

Key Player: Jameis Winston

Setting: At least one

Group: Alvin Kamara (-25%), Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Adam Trautman (Kamara’s negative boost is needed to get to any shares of his teammates)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Collin Johnson, Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, CJ Board (Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both out for Week 4)

New York Giants

Key Player: Daniel Jones

Setting: At least one

Group: Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay (-15%), Evan Engram, Kadarius Toney (+25%), Collin Johnson, CJ Board, Kyle Rudolph (Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both out for Week 4)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Alvin Kamara (-15%), Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Adam Trautman

New York Jets

Key Player: Zach Wilson

Setting: At least one

Group: Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, Jamison Crowder (Q), Keelan Cole, Tyler Kroft (Q), Ty Johnson

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Derrick Henry, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers (+10%), Anthony Firkser, Josh Reynolds (+10%)

Philadelphia Eagles

Key Player: Jalen Hurts

Setting: At least one

Group: Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert, Quez Watkins, Kenneth Gainwell

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson (+15%), Byron Pringle (+25%)

Our BEST NFL Express Pass EVER! Get full access to player and ownership rankings, showdown tools and data, and so much more for only $3.95 weekly.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger

Setting: At least one

Group: Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson (P), Pat Freiermuth, James Washington, JuJu Smith-Schuster (P)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb

San Francisco 49ers

Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (Q), Brandon Aiyuk (+10%), Mohamed Sanu (+35%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Tyler Lockett (Q), DK Metcalf, Will Dissly, Freddie Swan, Chris Carson

Seattle Seahawks

Key Player: Russell Wilson

Setting: Between one and two

Group: Tyler Lockett (Q), DK Metcalf, Will Dissly, Freddie Swan

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (Q) (-15%), Brandon Aiyuk (+10%), Mohamed Sanu (+35%)

Tennessee Titans

Key Player: Ryan Tannehill

Setting: At least one

Group: Derrick Henry, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers (+15%), Anthony Firkser (AJ Brown and Julio Jones are both out for Week 4)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Corey Davis, Braxton Berrios, Jamison Crowder (Q), Tyler Kroft (Q), Ty Johnson, Keelan Cole

Washington Football Team

Key Player: Taylor Heinicke

Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson (Q), Logan Thomas, Adam Humphries, Dyami Brown

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Calvin Ridley, Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Davis, Olamide Zaccheaus, Kyle Pitts


Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!


If you’re interested in other DFS NFL plays for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and NFL stacks. Take a look at our starting lineups, inactive player list and depth charts.

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

React App

Sign up to Receive Expert DFS Advice & Exclusive Offers From Awesemo

Subscriber Counter

We respect your email privacy

More NFL