Monday Night Football brings a third-straight low-totaled ugly-looking primetime game. This one is not the fault of schedule-makers, however, with the Seahawks taking major damage early in the season losing both Russell Wilson and Chris Carson, as well as a few odds and ends around the team. Running back Alex Collins is also questionable for tonight, which would be an even bigger downgrade to the overall talent on the field. On the Saints side, there is simply a lack of major upside outside of Alvin Kamara, particularly with leading receiver Deonte Harris out for Week 7’s Monday Night game. All of this adds up to just a 41.5 total on the board in Vegas, with the visiting Saints favored by 4.5. An ugly game does not mean a total dearth of NFL DFS picks, however, there are several bright spots for upside and potential for surprise scoring can come from any corner, creating an interesting slate for large field-GPP play. This article will break down the best possible groupings and NFL DFS optimizer picks for DraftKings and FanDuel optimal lineups tonight.
The Awesemo Top Showdown Plays Tool is the best way to find low-owned value and leverage, when using the tool we want to focus on the probability of success but also the degree to which a player is owned when compared with that probability and can indicate if the field is over or underweight to a play. Using all of the Awesemo expert data and tools, let’s find the top NFL DFS optimizer picks for Monday Night Football DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups.
NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Week 7 Monday Night Football
Small Sample Central — Trends and Notes
Several of the primary lineup construction notes from previous versions of the article will continue to be listed in this space, but each week we will attempt to find parallels based on Vegas data and the general game environment from historical contests in the pool of DraftKings Showdown research from 2019 through this week’s contests. It is important to not get too focused on results-based thinking in such a small sample. Quality lineup construction is always the focus, but historical results can help inform some basic decisions in a pricing and ownership vacuum. A quick summary of that previous content:
- According to tracking data for DraftKings Showdown contests over 2019 and 2020, only 17 of 95 slates were won with a quarterback Captain.
- Across the same sample, wide receivers and running backs split the outcomes evenly, with 33 tournament-winning events each.
- Of the 38 times that a wide receiver or tight end was in the winning Captain position, only three of those builds did not include at least one quarterback in a Flex position.
- Thirty-five of 95 winning lineups featured at least one defense, but only two of those featured both defenses.
- Twenty-nine winning lineups featured at least one kicker, but only two of those included both.
- Only eight winning lineups included at least one defense and one kicker, while one person won a tournament with two defenses and a kicker in 2019.
As we saw with last night’s 42-point total, historical sampling tends to indicate that these games go very much in the direction that one might expect. By and large games with low totals see running back Captain plays to lead the way, with defense and kickers gaining viability, while pass-catchers slip slightly in overall relevance. The strongest trend we have observed in all situations is that quarterbacks are nearly essential to success, with at least one appearing at least as a Flex play in the vast majority of winning constructions. 20 of 24 winning lineups feature at least one quarterback, the frequency with which the position is vital makes it virtually unskippable in this format, regardless of the game situation, except for the possibility of playing in a typhoon like last night’s game that still saw Carson Wentz throw two touchdown passes.
Looking for new data points, we can ignore the game total for a moment and focus on contests that began with a point spread within a point in either direction of tonight’s 4.5 line. This leaves a 17-point sample that sees a mixture of results at the Captain position. Interestingly, pass catchers won just two of the 17 contests in this sample, a major downgrade for a position that is usually the leading Captain winner. Defense as a Captain was victorious once and quarterbacks took the day five times in the lead role. Running backs were the winning Captain play in nine of the 17 winning entries. Only two of the 17 winning lineups failed to include a quarterback, while seven of the winners included both passers.
Eight of the 17 winning lineups in this configuration were 3-3 builds, while an additional four winners were 4-2 constructions. Two of the three winning 5-1 builds came with quarterback Captains, while the third was a truly unique construction. That winning lineup featured running back James Conner in the Captain role, with his quarterback at the time, Mason Rudolph as a Flex play. Joining Rudolph were the Steelers defense, wide receiver Diontae Johnson, opposing running back Joe Mixon as the lone player from the other team, and most interestingly fellow Steelers back Jaylen Samuels. This type of creative lineup can play well for Showdown formats, helping differentiate from the public while still rostering plays that have significant upside and a degree of correlation. The winners that rostered 5-1 quarterback-focused builds did so by playing the signal-caller with his primary skill players and seem likely to have split the victory many ways. A win with Patrick Mahomes as a Captain that included Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, and opposing receiver Devin Duvernay, seems unlikely to have been a solo victor.
Of the lineups that were victorious with running backs in the Captain role, only one failed to roster a quarterback, while four of the nine included both passers. Defense was the more viable of the alternate plays in Flex roles when putting a running back at Captain, coming up victorious in three of the nine instances, while a kicker made the winning lineup just once. Focusing on skill players and quarterbacks remains the priority across all game types in Showdown format for NFL DFS.
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team (this will happen naturally in most Showdown constructions, but including the rule will eliminate lineups that feature only an opposing kicker or quarterback)
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (this will happen naturally in a large portion of lineups, but stacking quarterbacks with pass catchers is the easiest way to rack up NFL DFS points. It makes sense to include this rule to force the build, in most situations)
Limit Rules
Limit rules are slightly less important for Showdown slates as there are only two teams to choose from. They are still useful for preventing suboptimal constructions, however, including the following will help prevent these less likely builds.
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE/DST/K from Same Team to three unless paired with Captain
Limit RB from Same Team to one (this is a rule that can be toggled on and off over multiple crunches, but the preference for this slate would be to use it)
Limit K from Same Game to one
Limit DEF from Same Game to one
Construction Basics
We will utilize Fantasy Cruncher’s Groups utility to create specific builds. The Groups feature includes the ability to designate players as the key to the group, or the player whose use in a position will trigger the group requirements. For Showdown slates this can be utilized to force specific sets of players or positions along with each type of designated Captain. The example below shows a group that utilizes Alvin Kamara in the Captain role as the key player. It will then force all constructions featuring Kamar in the Captain role to include at least three of the players listed in the group that includes both quarterbacks, both defenses, and the rest of the running back corps while leaving two spaces and significant salary on the table to roster anyone in the final positions while creating lineups that play to the likely game script.
NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks
Unlike multi-game slates, when attacking individual potential game scripts, these groups are better deployed individually for separate crunches that can then be combined into a single pool of lineups. Running them all at once is likely to create conflicting scenarios that will either prevent or limit a full crunch.
Quarterback Inclusion
The first wrinkle in utilizing Groups to create specific constructions is that the tool differentiates between a wide receiver or running back and the same player in the Captain or MVP spot. This requires the creation of a group that adds the Captain version of any likely skill player as the key player, with a rule setting that any lineup featuring any of these players must include one of the quarterbacks in a Flex position. The alternate approach to this problem is to remove all but the skill players from potential inclusion at the Captain spot then create a rule that will simply stack the quarterback with the Captain spot, but that approach is likely more flawed. This group does not currently force quarterbacks when defense or a kicker is used at Captain.
Key Players: All primary skill-players as Captain
Setting: At least one
Group: Geno Smith & Jameis Winston — Standard Versions
This group will result in getting one of the quarterbacks whenever any of the listed primary skill-players is utilized at Captain. To force the quarterback from the same team, multiple groups should be created for skill players from each team utilizing just the quarterback from that team. When quarterbacks appear in Flex positions, the rules and limit settings will kick in to force optimal constructions in the other Flex roles.
Lineup Concept — Saints Overload
Key Player(s): Alvin Kamara & Jameis Winston – Captain versions
Setting: At least four
Group: Alvin Kamara standard version (+25%), Jameis Winston standard version (+25%), Geno Smith, Kenny Stills, Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, Adam Trautman, Saints defense, Brian Johnson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Freddie Swain
This group looks to build lineups that are slanted toward the Saints offense when either Jameis Winston or Alvin Kamara land in the Captain role. The group will pull in at least four of the included players from a list that features both Kamara and Winston in their standard form, with added boosts to force more of the pairing of the most likely top scorers on the slate. From there, the group will also feature additional skill players from the Saints, as well as their kicker and defense, while adding the opposing quarterback and top two receivers. This should create a structure that results in lineups slanted toward a 5-1 or 4-2 construction that leans into the favored New Orleans attack.
Game Concept — One or the Other
Key Player(s): D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett – Captain versions
Setting: Only apply adjustments (-50%)
Group: D.K. Metcalf & Tyler Lockett – Standard versions
Instead of putting players together, this simple group looks to create a bit of separation between the top two Seattle wide receivers. While both receivers see a significant number of targets from week to week, there are only so many touchdowns to go around, meaning one of them will likely outpace the other each time the team takes the field. Metcalf sees 7.5 targets per game, while Lockett pulls in seven of his own, with Metcalf scoring five touchdowns to Lockett’s three over the team’s first six games. Rostering the two premium targets together is not a mistake by any means, particularly when paired with quarterback Geno Smith; this group will allow that to happen, but it reduces the frequency with which we see the pairing. This group can be left on across a variety of crunches in combination with other groups, it can be turned off to allow a sample of lineups that will include both receivers more often when desired.
Game Script — Vegas Gets it Right
Key Player(s): Alvin Kamara, Alex Collins (Q), Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas – Captain versions
Setting: At least three
Group: Alvin Kamara, Alex Collins, Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas, Jameis Winston, Geno Smith, Saints defense, Seahawks defense, Gerald Everett, Adam Trautman, Juwan Johnson, Will Dissly
This group looks to capitalize on the likelihood of a low-scoring, ugly game. Capitalizing on the history of running back wins in that sort of contest leads us to a group that will be triggered when any of the primary running backs from either team are included in the Captain role. It is important to note that Seattle back Alex Collins is questionable, if he does not play it seems likely that Rashaad Penny will see the bulk of the work for the Seahawks, with DeeJay Dallas bumping up in value as well. With any of the running backs in play as a Captain, this group will add three players from a list that includes the running backs in their standard form, both quarterbacks, both defenses, and the corps of tight ends, while leaving two spots and plenty of money to round out the roster from the list of wideouts.
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