The Sunday Night Football slate rounds out the weekend with an intriguing matchup between the Cowboys and Vikings, though the game is carrying a major wildcard at the moment. Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is currently questionable and supposedly a true game-time decision with a calf injury. Backup Cooper Rush took the reps in practice all week and would be in line to start if Prescott cannot go after pregame warmups. This creates a challenging situation for creating DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel single-game lineups for this slate. The slate can swing significantly depending on Prescott’s status, a downgrade at quarterback will make an impact up and down the Dallas roster, while Prescott playing would change the look of the top of our Showdown board on both sites.
The Awesemo Top Showdown Plays Tool is the best way to find low-owned value and leverage, when using the tool we want to focus on the probability of success but also the degree to which a player is owned when compared with that probability and can indicate if the field is over or underweight to a play. Using all of the Awesemo expert data and tools, let’s find the top NFL DFS optimizer picks for Monday Night Football DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups.
NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Week 8 Sunday Night Football
Small Sample Central — Trends and Notes
Several of the primary lineup construction notes from previous versions of the article will continue to be listed in this space, but each week we will attempt to find parallels based on Vegas data and the general game environment from historical contests in the pool of DraftKings Showdown research from 2019 through this week’s contests. It is important to not get too focused on results-based thinking in such a small sample. Quality lineup construction is always the focus, but historical results can help inform some basic decisions in a pricing and ownership vacuum. A quick summary of that previous content:
- According to tracking data for DraftKings Showdown contests over 2019 and 2020, only 17 of 95 slates were won with a quarterback Captain.
- Across the same sample, wide receivers and running backs split the outcomes evenly, with 33 tournament-winning events each.
- Of the 38 times that a wide receiver or tight end was in the winning Captain position, only three of those builds did not include at least one quarterback in a Flex position.
- Thirty-five of 95 winning lineups featured at least one defense, but only two of those featured both defenses.
- Twenty-nine winning lineups featured at least one kicker, but only two of those included both.
- Only eight winning lineups included at least one defense and one kicker, while one person won a tournament with two defenses and a kicker in 2019.
Sunday night’s action is carrying a 51-point total and a three-point spread in favor of the hometown Vikings. Accounting for just the game total and looking within a point in either direction yields a pool of 13 winning lineups for comparison’s sake. Seven of the 13 were won by a pass-catcher in the Captain role, with three of those going to tight ends. The remaining six wins were split evenly by either quarterback or running back Captain plays, with all three of the running back wins being 3-3 constructions and two of the winning quarterback lineups being 5-1 builds, both of which track logically. All 13 winning lineups included at least one quarterback and six of them included both passers, but none of those six were the quarterback Captain winners.
Adding another half-point in either direction extends the sample to 22 winning lineups, half of which are 3-3 constructions. Six of those 11 even builds featured a pass-catcher at the Captain spot. Four winners were 5-1 builds while one lineup landed atop the standings as a 1-5. Four winners were built as 4-2 lineups and two more were 2-4 constructions, one of the six featured a running back Captain, while the other five were pass-catchers. Every lineup in the extended sample included at least one quarterback, continuing by far the strongest trend we have seen in historical sampling.
Only three of the 29 winning lineups from a pool of games with a point spread between 2.5 and 3.5 did not feature a quarterback in any role. Each of those winning lineups benefitted from a game that fell at least 10 points short of the Vegas total, meaning they may represent more happenstance than anything noteworthy. Of the 26 lineups that included at least one quarterback, only five included both and only one of those five featured a quarterback Captain. Pass-catchers take 13 of the 29 winning Captain roles when we focus only on the spread and ignore the game total while running backs add another eight victories.
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team (this will happen naturally in most Showdown constructions, but including the rule will eliminate lineups that feature only an opposing kicker or quarterback)
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (this will happen naturally in a large portion of lineups, but stacking quarterbacks with pass catchers is the easiest way to rack up NFL DFS points. It makes sense to include this rule to force the build, in most situations)
Limit Rules
Limit rules are slightly less important for Showdown slates as there are only two teams to choose from. They are still useful for preventing suboptimal constructions, however, including the following will help prevent these less likely builds.
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE/DST/K from Same Team to three unless paired with Captain
Limit RB from Same Team to one (this is a rule that can be toggled on and off over multiple crunches, but the preference for this slate would be to use it)
Limit K from Same Game to one
Limit DEF from Same Game to one
Construction Basics
We will utilize Fantasy Cruncher’s Groups utility to create specific builds. The Groups feature includes the ability to designate players as the key to the group, or the player whose use in a position will trigger the group requirements. For Showdown slates this can be utilized to force specific sets of players or positions along with each type of designated Captain. The example below shows a group that utilizes Ezekiel Elliott in the Captain role as the key player. It will then force all constructions featuring Elliot in the Captain role to include at least three of the players listed in the group that includes both quarterbacks, leverage receiving options from both teams, the opposing star running back, and both kickers.
NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks
Unlike multi-game slates, when attacking individual potential game scripts, these groups are better deployed individually for separate crunches that can then be combined into a single pool of lineups. Running them all at once is likely to create conflicting scenarios that will either prevent or limit a full crunch.
Quarterback Inclusion
The first wrinkle in utilizing Groups to create specific constructions is that the tool differentiates between a wide receiver or running back and the same player in the Captain or MVP spot. This requires the creation of a group that adds the Captain version of any likely skill player as the key player, with a rule setting that any lineup featuring any of these players must include one of the quarterbacks in a Flex position. The alternate approach to this problem is to remove all but the skill players from potential inclusion at the Captain spot then create a rule that will simply stack the quarterback with the Captain spot, but that approach is likely more flawed. This group does not currently force quarterbacks when defense or a kicker is used at Captain.
Key Players: All primary skill-players as Captain
Setting: At least one
Group: Kirk Cousins & Dak Prescott (or Cooper Rush) — Standard Versions
This group will result in getting one of the quarterbacks whenever any of the listed primary skill-players is utilized at Captain. To force the quarterback from the same team, multiple groups should be created for skill players from each team utilizing just the quarterback from that team. When quarterbacks appear in Flex positions, the rules and limit settings will kick in to force optimal constructions in the other Flex roles.
Lineup Concept — Vikings Passing Game
Key Player(s): Justin Jefferson & Adam Thielen – Captain Versions
Setting: At least four
Group: Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson, Tyler Conklin, Greg Joseph, Ezekiel Elliott
This group looks to capture the upside of the most likely scoring front in this one, with the top two Vikings receivers in the Captain role. If either player lands in that spot the other will be downgraded but not eliminated from possibility by our negative bump. The group will force four players from a list that includes all of the Vikings’ primary airborne weapons and the top positively leveraged options from the Cowboys, as well as both quarterbacks.
Game Concept — Ground Game
Key Player(s): Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison – Captain Versions
Setting: At least four
Group: Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison (Standard Versions), Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott (or Cooper Rush), Amari Cooper, KJ Osborn, Tyler Conklin, Greg Joseph, Greg Zuerlein, Vikings defense, Justin Jefferson
This lineup looks to the alternate game script with two superstar caliber running backs on the field as well as two highly capable second options. If any of the running backs lands in the Captain role it will trigger a group that includes the full running back corps in their standard form, both quarterbacks, and most of the positively leverage flex options from both teams. This group will leave a space and ample salary for another premium play in the final flex spot.
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