Thursday’s game represents a return to form for primetime football with a 50.5 total and the hometown Cardinals favored by 6.5. With the Packers projected for Week 8’s sixth heaviest passing volume, even without two of their top receivers, and Arizona projected for the fifth-highest pace in Aweesmo’s Game Script Adjusted Advanced Stats, this game has shootout written all over it. There are two excellent top-tier quarterbacks and numerous skill player weapons on both sides, leaving a wide-open board for NFL DFS Showdown contests on DraftKings and single-game slates on FanDuel.
The Awesemo Top Showdown Plays Tool is the best way to find low-owned value and leverage, when using the tool we want to focus on the probability of success but also the degree to which a player is owned when compared with that probability and can indicate if the field is over or underweight to a play. Using all of the Awesemo expert data and tools, let’s find the top NFL DFS optimizer picks for Monday Night Football DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups.
NFL DFS Optimizer Picks: Week 8 Thursday Night Football
Small Sample Central — Trends and Notes
Several of the primary lineup construction notes from previous versions of the article will continue to be listed in this space, but each week we will attempt to find parallels based on Vegas data and the general game environment from historical contests in the pool of DraftKings Showdown research from 2019 through this week’s contests. It is important to not get too focused on results-based thinking in such a small sample. Quality lineup construction is always the focus, but historical results can help inform some basic decisions in a pricing and ownership vacuum. A quick summary of that previous content:
- According to tracking data for DraftKings Showdown contests over 2019 and 2020, only 17 of 95 slates were won with a quarterback Captain.
- Across the same sample, wide receivers and running backs split the outcomes evenly, with 33 tournament-winning events each.
- Of the 38 times that a wide receiver or tight end was in the winning Captain position, only three of those builds did not include at least one quarterback in a Flex position.
- Thirty-five of 95 winning lineups featured at least one defense, but only two of those featured both defenses.
- Twenty-nine winning lineups featured at least one kicker, but only two of those included both.
- Only eight winning lineups included at least one defense and one kicker, while one person won a tournament with two defenses and a kicker in 2019.
Thursday’s slate has 14 close counterparts in a historical sampling of games within a point on either side of the 50.5 Vegas total. As we have seen this season, once the game total hits 50 it becomes a receiver-based game. In this 14-point sample, nine of the winning lineups featured a pass-catcher, with tight ends showing up three times and wide receivers winning the balance. All three tight ends were elite receivers, with Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle each posting a victory. No tight end in tonight’s game is as talented or likely to see enough volume as anyone in that trio, though there are capable players at the position on both sides. All three of the winning running backs in this format were at least moderately involved in their team’s passing game at the time as well, while the two victories in the sample that featured quarterback Captains were both 5-1 constructions, both of which featured the opposing team’s primary receiver. No defense or kicker Captain won in this sample; they seem unlikely to change that pattern in tonight’s contest.
14 of 14 winning lineups in this sample included at least one quarterback, with five of them including both signal-callers in Flex roles. Kickers have been twice as viable as a defense in the format, coming up in winning Flex roles in eight of the 14 entries, while defense managed to land in a winning lineup just four times, with only two lineups including one of each. No winning lineup included more than one kicker or defense. Of the nine lineups that won with receiver Captain plays, five of them were built as 3-3 constructions, with another three coming as 4-2 builds. Only one lineup was constructed as a 2-4, with the Captain receiver paired with his quarterback connected to a four-man opposing stack consisting of the other quarterback, his dynamic pass-catching running back, a secondary receiver, and the team’s kicker.
A total of 30 contests become available for sampling if we expand the point total availability to within two on either side of tonight’s 50.5. Half of those were won with a pass-catcher in the Captain role, with wide receivers taking 11 of those 15 victories. Nine of the 15 winning lineups in that format were 3-3 constructions, following a trend of evenly built pass-focused lineups taking the top spot in tournaments of this nature. In the four games within that sample that were between a 6- and 7-point spread, all of them saw a wide receiver Captain take the win, with three of those four constructed as 3-3 builds.
Ignoring the point total and focusing on games with a spread between six and seven, we see similar results. There are 20 data points in the set and 10 of those were won with a wide receiver in the Captain role, while an additional landed with a tight end. Eight of the winning pass-catcher 11 lineups were 3-3 constructions. The remaining wins went to five running backs, a kicker, and three quarterbacks. All but one of the winning lineups in the full 20-entry set included at least one quarterback, while nine of the 20 winners rostered both. It seems clear that focusing lineup construction on the passing game is a sturdy approach to tonight’s DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel single-game slates.
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team (this will happen naturally in most Showdown constructions, but including the rule will eliminate lineups that feature only an opposing kicker or quarterback)
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (this will happen naturally in a large portion of lineups, but stacking quarterbacks with pass catchers is the easiest way to rack up NFL DFS points. It makes sense to include this rule to force the build, in most situations)
Limit Rules
Limit rules are slightly less important for Showdown slates as there are only two teams to choose from. They are still useful for preventing suboptimal constructions, however, including the following will help prevent these less likely builds.
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE/DST/K from Same Team to three unless paired with Captain
Limit RB from Same Team to one (this is a rule that can be toggled on and off over multiple crunches, but the preference for this slate would be to use it)
Limit K from Same Game to one
Limit DEF from Same Game to one
Construction Basics
We will utilize Fantasy Cruncher’s Groups utility to create specific builds. The Groups feature includes the ability to designate players as the key to the group, or the player whose use in a position will trigger the group requirements. For Showdown slates this can be utilized to force specific sets of players or positions along with each type of designated Captain. The example below shows a group that utilizes DeAndre Hopkins in the Captain role as the key player. It will then force all constructions featuring Hopkins in the Captain role to include at least three of the players listed in the group that includes both quarterbacks, both kickers, and the pass catchers correlated with the opposing quarterback while leaving significant salary on the table to roster anyone in the final positions and creating lineups that play to the likely game script.
NFL DFS Optimizer Groups & Picks
Unlike multi-game slates, when attacking individual potential game scripts, these groups are better deployed individually for separate crunches that can then be combined into a single pool of lineups. Running them all at once is likely to create conflicting scenarios that will either prevent or limit a full crunch.
Quarterback Inclusion
The first wrinkle in utilizing Groups to create specific constructions is that the tool differentiates between a wide receiver or running back and the same player in the Captain or MVP spot. This requires the creation of a group that adds the Captain version of any likely skill player as the key player, with a rule setting that any lineup featuring any of these players must include one of the quarterbacks in a Flex position. The alternate approach to this problem is to remove all but the skill players from potential inclusion at the Captain spot then create a rule that will simply stack the quarterback with the Captain spot, but that approach is likely more flawed. This group does not currently force quarterbacks when defense or a kicker is used at Captain.
Key Players: All primary skill-players as Captain
Setting: At least one
Group: Aaron Rodgers & Kyler Murray — Standard Versions
This group will result in getting one of the quarterbacks whenever any of the listed primary skill-players is utilized at Captain. To force the quarterback from the same team, multiple groups should be created for skill players from each team utilizing just the quarterback from that team. When quarterbacks appear in Flex positions, the rules and limit settings will kick in to force optimal constructions in the other Flex roles.
Lineup Concept — Pass-Happy Even Construction
Key Player(s): DeAndre Hopkins & Randall Cobb — Captain Versions
Setting: At least four
Group: Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Matt Prater, Mason Crosby, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, Chase Edmonds, Equanimeous St. Brown
This group focuses on two of the prominent pass-catchers in this game and forces a construction that includes both quarterbacks, both kickers, and a selection of positively leveraged Flex plays while leaving both salary and space for an additional top-end play, or a mix-in that will create a highly differentiated lineup. The majority of lineups with this build should include a dual receiving threat combination with the correlated receiver and quarterback and either a 3-3 or 4-2 construction.
Game Concept — Expect the Unexpected
Key Player(s): Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds, James Conner, A.J. Dillon – Captain Versions
Setting: At least three
Group: Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Tonyan, Zach Ertz, Matt Prater, Mason Crosby, Rondale Moore, Equanimous St. Brown, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds, James Conner, A.J. Dillon (Standard Versions)
With the world looking to the sky for offense tonight, setting a group that keeps expectations more grounded seems like a quick approach to building contrarian lineups. Just because the small sample research above has not yielded many running back Captain wins in the format does not mean that it cannot or will not happen. This is particularly true given the absence of premium options in the Packers passing game, as well as the general involvement of running backs in the passing scheme of both teams. This group focuses on the primary backs from either side in the Captain role, which will trigger a group that includes the standard versions of the same backs, the quarterbacks from either side, both kickers, two primary tight ends, and two positively leveraged receivers. It leaves both space and salary for additional star-caliber plays and should yield a wide range of well-built differentiated lineups.
Game Concept — Cardinals Onslaught
Key Player(s): Kyler Murray — Captain Version
Setting: At least four
Group: Aaron Rodgers, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, Matt Prater
This group will build entirely 5-1 or 4-2 lineups that are stacked in favor of the Cardinals’ offense whenever Kyler Murray lands in the Captain role. The group includes all of the primary offensive players from Arizona’s roster, as well as the opposing quarterback. This will force four players, either all from Murray’s team or Rodgers and three of Murray’s teammates. The latter instance will then have one spot that can go to either a Cardinals player or a Packers player, which will add some lineups that provide Rodgers with correlated scoring upside. The bulk of the lineups produced should represent overwhelming favor toward the Cardinals’ side of this contest.
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