It was probably definitely too much to hope that we would get through an entire season of NFL DFS without some impact from COVID-19. With the Steelers at Titans game – and now the Patriots at Chiefs and potentially Saints at Lions games as of late Saturday night – postponing to a point to be determined later this season following several positive tests, we now have to hope that the league can figure out a workable schedule and that everything goes to plan from here. The NFL has done well through the first three weeks and we’ve seen some fun games, though injuries have clearly been an issue. It’s almost as if training camps and exhibition games leading up to the season do serve a purpose after all.
The remaining games on the schedule should deliver us a fine slate. With some weight on the slate moving around after the postponement and some news yet to drop on a few key players, stay tuned to our NewsGod and keep up with all the shows for the latest and analysis any strategic impact. We’re using the same settings as last week. If you run into issues with crunches, you can strip off a few of the limitation rules and then check lineups as you work, eliminating any with bad constructions.
As I mentioned last week, it is critical to include individual player exposure caps in your process. I also highly recommend crunching a large number of lineups of varying constructions and then filtering them for several factors, including leverage and ceiling projections. The goal of our groups is to help guide the stacking tools in our favorite optimizers into building us the best possible versions of our partial game stacks. Utilizing individual caps and randomness as well as some other tricks helps us fill out the rest of our lineup with high-end quality.
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NFL DFS – Fantasy Cruncher Groups-Think: Week 4
Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
We only lost two full games and a handful of featured players on offense, so just a few updates below.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Larry Fitzgerald, Dan Arnold, Christian Kirk (Q) (Hopkins is likely to play. Kirk expected back, add Kenyan Drake at your discretion, we should see plenty of him naturally with the at least one setting, make that two if you do add Drake to the group. Andy Isabella is unlikely to see volume unless Kirk sits)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D.J. Moore, Mike Davis, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Boykin, Willie Snead
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Terry McLaurin (Q), Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Dontrelle Inman (McLaurin expected to play)
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least two
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox (Zack Moss is due back, and with unpredictable volume I’m taking Devin Singletary out of the group again. Either could connect. If you include them, be sure to apply individual ownership caps appropriately. You can also change the setting to at least one, and you should see some shares of Singletary in the mix)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one
Group: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, Mike Davis (Davis got plenty of volume on the ground and in the air last week filling in for Christian McCaffrey)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Kenyan Drake, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk (Q) (TE Dan Arnold removed on projection, I’ll take my shares in stacks with his QB)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Nick Foles (be sure to change this from Trubisky)
Setting: At least two (bumping this with the change in quarterback)
Group: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Jimmy Graham (You might be able to get away with adding Cordarrelle Patterson to the group, he projects as an average option)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: At least two
Group: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon (Q), Tee Higgins, Giovani Bernard, Drew Sample (Mixon popped up on the injury report with a chest issue but is expected to play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert (Eifert added)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least two
Group: Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Dak Prescott
Setting: At least two
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt
Detroit Lions (this game is likely to be postponed)
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: At least two
Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola (pulling all the backs for now)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Latavius Murray, Tre’Quan Smith (Michael Thomas and Jordan Reed out)
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least two
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Philip Rivers
Setting: At least two
Group: T.Y. Hilton, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, (Trey Burton is back, I’m removing Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox until we get clarity on the volume question)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller
Related NFL DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Gardner Minshew
Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert (Eifert added)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Tee Higgins
Kansas City Chiefs – postponed
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least two
Group: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor, Zay Jones
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Devin Singletary, Cole Beasley
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton, Joshua Kelley, KJ Hill (Mike Williams likely out; added K.J. Hill on projection)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, Scott Miller, Justin Watson (Fournette and Godwin out, Watson added)
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least two
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Darrell Henderson, Josh Reynolds (Malcom Brown is not in the first-crunch set of lineups here, but he is a player I will add for various iterations)
Opposing Group: At least one
Group: Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Evan Engram, Devonta Freeman
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Setting: At least two
Group: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, Isaiah Ford
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, Greg Olsen
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins
New England Patriots – postponed
New Orleans Saints – this game is likely to be postponed
Key Player: Drew Brees
Setting: At least two
Group: Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith, Latavius Murray
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, Adrian Peterson (Peterson added)
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: At least two
Group: Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, Devonta Freeman
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Darrell Henderson, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds (Reynolds added)
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Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least two
Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson (Q), Greg Olsen (Carson expected to play. David Moore removed, leaving Will Dissly out again for volume reasons)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford, Mike Gesicki
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least two
Group: Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, Scott Miller, Rob Gronkowski, Justin Watson (Godwin and Fournette removed, Watson added)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Dwayne Haskins
Setting: At least one
Group: Terry McLaurin (Q), Antonio Gibson, Dontrelle Inman, Logan Thomas, JD McKissic (McLaurin expected to play. Added McKissic, Steven Sims out)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews, Mark Ingram, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin
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