NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think | Week 4 Fantasy Lineup Constructions – Sunday Update

It was probably definitely too much to hope that we would get through an entire season of NFL DFS without some impact from COVID-19. With the Steelers at Titans game – and now the Patriots at Chiefs and potentially Saints at Lions games as of late Saturday night – postponing to a point to be determined later this season following several positive tests, we now have to hope that the league can figure out a workable schedule and that everything goes to plan from here. The NFL has done well through the first three weeks and we’ve seen some fun games, though injuries have clearly been an issue. It’s almost as if training camps and exhibition games leading up to the season do serve a purpose after all.

The remaining games on the schedule should deliver us a fine slate. With some weight on the slate moving around after the postponement and some news yet to drop on a few key players, stay tuned to our NewsGod and keep up with all the shows for the latest and analysis any strategic impact. We’re using the same settings as last week. If you run into issues with crunches, you can strip off a few of the limitation rules and then check lineups as you work, eliminating any with bad constructions.

As I mentioned last week, it is critical to include individual player exposure caps in your process. I also highly recommend crunching a large number of lineups of varying constructions and then filtering them for several factors, including leverage and ceiling projections. The goal of our groups is to help guide the stacking tools in our favorite optimizers into building us the best possible versions of our partial game stacks. Utilizing individual caps and randomness as well as some other tricks helps us fill out the rest of our lineup with high-end quality.

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NFL DFS – Fantasy Cruncher Groups-Think: Week 4

Stack Rules:

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)

Limit Rules: 

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team

Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference)

Construction: 

Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.

Sunday Update:

We only lost two full games and a handful of featured players on offense, so just a few updates below.


Arizona Cardinals

Key Player: Kyler Murray

Setting: At least one

Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Larry Fitzgerald, Dan Arnold, Christian Kirk (Q) (Hopkins is likely to play. Kirk expected back, add Kenyan Drake at your discretion, we should see plenty of him naturally with the at least one setting, make that two if you do add Drake to the group. Andy Isabella is unlikely to see volume unless Kirk sits)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: D.J. Moore, Mike Davis, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson

Baltimore Ravens

Key Player: Lamar Jackson

Setting: At least one

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Boykin, Willie Snead

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurin (Q), Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Dontrelle Inman (McLaurin expected to play)

Buffalo Bills

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: At least two

Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox (Zack Moss is due back, and with unpredictable volume I’m taking Devin Singletary out of the group again. Either could connect. If you include them, be sure to apply individual ownership caps appropriately. You can also change the setting to at least one, and you should see some shares of Singletary in the mix)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor

Carolina Panthers

Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater

Setting: At least one

Group: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, Mike Davis (Davis got plenty of volume on the ground and in the air last week filling in for Christian McCaffrey)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Kenyan Drake, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk (Q) (TE Dan Arnold removed on projection, I’ll take my shares in stacks with his QB)

Chicago Bears

Key Player: Nick Foles (be sure to change this from Trubisky)

Setting: At least two (bumping this with the change in quarterback)

Group: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, Jimmy Graham (You might be able to get away with adding Cordarrelle Patterson to the group, he projects as an average option)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Player: Joe Burrow

Setting: At least two

Group: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon (Q), Tee Higgins, Giovani Bernard, Drew Sample (Mixon popped up on the injury report with a chest issue but is expected to play)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert (Eifert added)

Cleveland Browns

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: At least two

Group: Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz

Dallas Cowboys

Key Player: Dak Prescott

Setting: At least two

Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt

Detroit Lions (this game is likely to be postponed)

Key Player: Matthew Stafford

Setting: At least two

Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola (pulling all the backs for now)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Latavius Murray, Tre’Quan Smith (Michael Thomas and Jordan Reed out)

Houston Texans

Key Player: Deshaun Watson

Setting: At least two

Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison

Indianapolis Colts

Key Player: Philip Rivers

Setting: At least two

Group: T.Y. Hilton, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, (Trey Burton is back, I’m removing Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox until we get clarity on the volume question)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller


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Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Player: Gardner Minshew

Setting: At least one

Group: James Robinson, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert (Eifert added)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Tee Higgins

Kansas City Chiefs – postponed

Las Vegas Raiders

Key Player: Derek Carr

Setting: At least two

Group: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor, Zay Jones

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Devin Singletary, Cole Beasley

Los Angeles Chargers

Key Player: Justin Herbert

Setting: At least one

Group: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton, Joshua Kelley, KJ Hill (Mike Williams likely out; added K.J. Hill on projection)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, Scott Miller, Justin Watson (Fournette and Godwin out, Watson added)

Los Angeles Rams

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: At least two

Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Darrell Henderson, Josh Reynolds (Malcom Brown is not in the first-crunch set of lineups here, but he is a player I will add for various iterations)

Opposing Group: At least one

Group: Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Evan Engram, Devonta Freeman

Miami Dolphins

Key Player: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Setting: At least two

Group: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, Isaiah Ford

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, Greg Olsen

Minnesota Vikings

Key Player: Kirk Cousins

Setting: At least one

Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins

New England Patriots – postponed

New Orleans Saints – this game is likely to be postponed

Key Player: Drew Brees

Setting: At least two

Group: Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith, Latavius Murray

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, Adrian Peterson (Peterson added)

New York Giants

Key Player: Daniel Jones

Setting: At least two

Group: Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, Devonta Freeman

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Darrell Henderson, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds (Reynolds added)


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Seattle Seahawks

Key Player: Russell Wilson

Setting: At least two

Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson (Q), Greg Olsen (Carson expected to play. David Moore removed, leaving Will Dissly out again for volume reasons)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford, Mike Gesicki

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key Player: Tom Brady

Setting: At least two

Group: Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, Scott Miller, Rob Gronkowski, Justin Watson (Godwin and Fournette removed, Watson added)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton

Washington Football Team

Key Player: Dwayne Haskins

Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurin (Q), Antonio Gibson, Dontrelle Inman, Logan Thomas, JD McKissic (McLaurin expected to play. Added McKissic, Steven Sims out)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mark Andrews, Mark Ingram, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin


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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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