Week 13 isn’t the insane value bonanza that Week 12 was, so picking out the few values that currently exist is going to be much more difficult, and it is all the more crucial to winning cash games and tournaments. Here are the best NFL DFS picks values across the board for the Week 13 NFL DFS main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 13 DraftKings + FanDuel Value Plays
NFL Picks: Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,400 DraftKings / $6,900 FanDuel)
Trubisky might not be a good NFL quarterback, but value cares not for good or bad. It sees only the dollar signs that a player costs to roster and their projected fantasy points. For Trubisky, both metrics align for him to be the best way to save salary at quarterback. He is projected as the best value on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt, Trubisky is a middling passer in terms of efficiency, but he can be projected to drop back more than almost any other quarterback on the main slate. The Bears lead the NFL in pass percentage with 67.1% of their offensive snaps resulting in a pass attempt. No team is even at 65% outside of the Bears.
Dropbacks are even more value for Trubisky than most passers because he can always bring the ball down and run unlike his predecessor, Nick Foles. Including the game in which he was benched, Trubisky is averaging 2.8 carries for 24.2 yards per game on the ground this year. He’s 18th in the NFL in fantasy points per dropback.
This week, Trubisky may actually be able to string together an efficient passing outing versus the Lions. Detroit is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks on both FanDuel and DraftKings this year. They are 28th in yards per attempt allowed, and Pro Football Focus has their secondary ranked as the worst coverage unit in the league. The Bears also have a solid implied team total of 24 points. For as cheap as Trubisky is, that total is more than enough for him to pay off his price this week.
NFL Picks: Running Back
David Montgomery ($5,500 DraftKings / $6,200 FanDuel)
As uncomfortable as it may seem, the Bears are good values across the board this week. They are favorites at home with a solid team total against the terrible defense and run an above-average number of plays per game. All of those things bode well for the offense, and especially for Montgomery. Since Tarik Cohen went down in Week 3, Montgomery has been a workhorse back. He is averaging 14.1 carries and 5.4 targets per game, which has propelled him to 81.8 yards from scrimmage on a weekly basis.
The only aspect of his game that has been lacking has been efficiency. He’s averaging under 5 yards per target and 4 yards per carry while scoring on 1.4% of his opportunities (targets and carries). Being favored against a team that is allowing their opponents to average 6 yards per play, the fifth-worst mark in the league, should help flip his efficiency numbers for at least one game.
As a receiver specifically, Montgomery has been one of the most used running backs in the league. Since Week 3, no running back has run more routes than Montgomery. That’s before adjusting for the week he missed while sidelined by a concussion. With Cohen out, Montgomery has run a route on 64.4% of his team’s passing plays. He remains the cheapest three-down back on the main slate.
NFL Picks: Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks ($5,600 DraftKings / $6,00 FanDuel)
The Texans placed Randall Cobb on injured reserve with a toe injury last week. Then they released veteran wide receiver and field stretcher Kenny Stills. Shortly after that, Will Fuller was suspended for the remainder of the season after getting popped for PEDs. That leaves the Texans without 41.4% of their targets, 45.7% of their receiving yards and half of the touchdowns that Deshaun Watson has thrown. That’s far more than what they lost when they traded DeAndre Hopkins, and that move boosted Fuller into WR1 territory instantly. The same thing could easily happen to Cooks, and his floor is now boosted immensely.
To his credit, Cooks hardly needed every receiver in the Houston metropolitan area to miss Week 13 to be a good value. He currently has a 22% target share and a26% air yards share on a team that is third in the NFL in passing yards per game. Even though he started the year with three dud games, Watson has topped 300 passing yards in a majority of his 11 games this year. He leads the leagues in yards per attempt (8.8) and adjusted yards per attempt (9.5). Now Cooks gets to be Watson’s unquestioned No. 1 receiver in a game with a 51-point total.
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NFL Picks: Tight End
Dallas Goedert ($4,300 DraftKings / $6,200 FanDuel)
Goedert is simply the only tight end worth paying for in the middle of the price range on both sites. All of the tight ends who require a similar cost to roster at best have questions around their role. Some of them don’t have questions because the answer would be that they are definitively rotational players (looking at you, Jonnu Smith) and not even every-down starters. That’s not the case with Goedert.
Removing the game in which Goedert was injured and his first game since returning from injured reserve, he has cemented himself as an elite fantasy tight end and the Eagles’ No. 1 pass catcher. He has a 20% target share and a 20% air yards share in those five games. His target share leads all Philadelphia pass catchers over that span. Jalen Reagor‘s 22% share of the air yards is the only mark ahead of him in that category (excluding DeSean Jackson, who is currently on injured reserve). The Eagles are second in the NFL in pass percentage, and Vegas has them as touchdown underdogs to the Packers. Goedert has a realistic chance of leading all tight ends in targets this week.
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