Here are the best NFL DFS picks values across the board for the Week 14 NFL DFS main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. Week 14 isn’t loaded with value like Week 13 was so picking out the few values that currently exist is going to be much more difficult, and it is all the more crucial to winning cash games and tournaments.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 14 DraftKings + FanDuel Value Plays
NFL Picks: Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,400 DraftKings / $6,600 FanDuel)
Tagovailoa has gotten a bad rap as the conservative passer in Miami compared to Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s wild west gunslinger style. This isn’t necessarily true. Tagovailoa has posted a higher aDOT and thrown 20 or more yards downfield on a higher percentage of his throws this year. He simply hasn’t been as efficient as Fitzpatrick in a sample of five games. His sample of college games is 32 games, and he posted 12.7 yards per attempt at Alabama. That’s the greatest career mark ever.
The game environment sets up well for a surprising game from Tagovailoa. His defense has performed well as of late, limiting his volume and allowing him to coast to middling fantasy days. That won’t be the case this week. His game has 50.5-point total, and he projects as a top-three value on both sites. He is the perfect way to tap into a high-scoring game, fade a small sample and save money that would be better spent elsewhere.
NFL Picks: Running Back
J.D. McKissic ($4,900 DraftKings / $5,300 FanDuel)
Since Alex Smith took over, McKissic has been one of the most targeted players in the entire league. Since Week 9, he is eighth in targets among all players, not just running backs. He’s averaging nine targets per game in that span. That’s only looking at games that Antonio Gibson was also competing with McKissic for targets. Gibson is expected to be out this week, leaving the entirety of the pass-catching role to McKissic. Gibson has stolen 3.2 targets per game over his previous five games.
McKissic has hit double-digit targets in three of his past five games and also has three games with at least five carries. That carry number could rise to nearly double digits with Gibson sidelined. Being an underdog this week doesn’t hurt McKissic because of his role as a pass catcher. He projects as the best value on FanDuel and DraftKings this week.
Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver
Corey Davis ($5,700 DraftKings / $6,800 FanDuel)
Davis and A.J. Brown have played in eight games together this year. Brown has undeniably taken a backseat to Davis in those games:
- Davis – 24% target share, 38% air yards share, 696 receiving yards
- Brown – 23% target share, 32% air yards share, 585 receiving yards
Davis was a high first-round pick who played on middling Tennessee offenses for most of his career until the middle of last year. He’s finally on an efficient offense and is producing as we would expect a first-round pick to. He may not dominate the volume as heavily in the coming weeks because our priors on Brown are also strongly in favor of him being a talented receiver. However, this situation is likely a 1A/1B scenario at most. Fading Davis from a value perspective is simply buying too heavily into last year and not weighing the entirety of the season enough.
His opponent this week is ideal for receiving production. The Jaguars are the only team in the league allowing 8 or more yards per target to opposing pass catchers. Vegas has the Titans with the third-highest team total on the main slate at 30 points. Even if the Titans choose to keep their offense running through Henry as 7.5-point favorites, Davis’ market share numbers combined with his team’s overall offensive projection makes him a solid value until either site hikes his price way up.
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NFL Picks: Tight End
Dallas Goedert ($4,000 DraftKings / $5,600 FanDuel)
Goedert will continue to appear as the best value tight end in this article until he gets priced like the No. 1 receiver he is. He missed the middle part of the season while on injured reserve with an ankle injury and came back to a reduced role in Week 8. Since then, he’s operated as the top pass catcher without question. His 21% target share and a 23% air yards share both lead the Eagles in their four previous games. If both of those numbers were for the entire year, he would be one of just five tight ends with a target share and air yards share north of 20%.
Goedert’s defensive matchup versus the Saints is likely viewed as a negative, but the data from this season suggests it’s at worst a non-factor. The Saints have allowed a 22% target share to opposing tight ends this year. That mark would be top five among tight ends if it belonged to a single player. Goedert is the only tight end who is locked in as his team’s No. 1 receiver that isn’t priced accordingly.
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