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Week 3 DraftKings NFL Tiers Picks Using Awesemo’s NEW Tiers Projections Tool




As Week 3’s Sunday slate approaches, look to use the NFL DFS projections and the new DraftKings NFL Tiers Projections Tool as a sneak peek for projected and optimal ownership, which yields the overall leverage over the field for each of the eight tiers. Below we will break down the best picks from the tiers, using the new tool to help identify the top players from various pricing levels.

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Week 3 NFL DFS DraftKings Tiers Projections & Picks

Tier 1 Pick: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

Awesemo Ownership Projection: 17.5%

Optimal: 13.4%

Leverage: -4.0%

Seattle will visit Minnesota Sunday evening as 1.5-point favorites in a potential shootout carrying a total of 55 points. The Seahawks have the third-highest implied total of the week (28.25) and face a Minnesota defense that has been bad defending the pass. The Vikings have surrendered 77.8% completion for 9.4 yards per target and are ranked 26th in yards passing allowed per game. Wilson’s ownership comes in dangerously low for a quarterback who is leading the league in passer rating (146.9) and facing a bottom-five pass defense. Coming into Week 3 averaging 26.7 DraftKings points per game, Wilson is not only a safe bet to surpass his projection, but also to gain leverage on the field with his low ownership in an exploitable matchup.

Tier 2 Pick: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Awesemo Ownership Projection: 13.7%

Optimal: 14.8%

Leverage: 1.1%

Lockett has the highest DraftKings average of Tier 2 (31.9 points) but carries the lowest ownership and the least risk. He has the fifth-highest target share in the league heading into Week 3, at 30.8%. Most importantly, that attention continues in the red zone, where he sees 25% of targets. The impressive opportunity statistics continue when looking at deep targets, as Lockett leads the league with six while also averaging the second-most yards per target, at 17.4. Wilson is looking for him all over the field, and Lockett is fresh off his first 100-reception season. Facing a favorable matchup against Bashaud Breeland and Mackensie Alexander, look for Lockett to continue his hot start.

Tier 3 Pick: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Awesemo Ownership Projection: 15.8%

Optimal: 23.5%

Leverage: 7.8%

Projected as the second-best leverage play on the slate, Kupp matches up against the Buccaneers in the game with the week’s highest total (55.5). When talking about quarterback’s favorite targets, there is nowhere further to look than the connection between Kupp and Matthew Stafford. Entering Week 3, Kupp is second in the NFL in target share (38.2%) while seeing 40% of the Rams red-zone targets. Leading the NFL in touchdowns (three), receptions (16) and route participation (94.6%), he now faces the defense who has allowed 342 yards passing per game, more than any other team. Tampa Bay is a tough defense to run against, allowing 57.5 per contest, so expect Sean McVay to spend more time finding holes in a leaky pass unit that is without Sean Murphy-Bunting for the foreseeable future.

Tier 5 Pick: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Awesemo Ownership Projection: 11.6%

Optimal: 16.4%

Leverage: 4.9%

As mentioned above, the Buccaneers are not a favorable matchup to run the ball given their strength up front. Averaging only 28 pass attempts heading into Week 3, Stafford walks into a Tampa Bay defense that has seen an average of 53 pass attempts in their first two games. Expect McVay to unleash a little more of the pass attack Sunday and for that additional opportunity to benefit the secondary stack a big way. Fantasy football relies heavily on a player’s opportunity, and in a week with two matchups with point totals of 55 points or more, stacking makes a lot of sense.

Tier 7 Pick: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Awesemo Ownership Projection: 15.3%

Optimal: 23.5%

Leverage: 8.1%

Godwin comes into a shootout as the league leader in routes ran (82), and he will see a favorable matchup against Darious Williams and David Long. Godwin moves around a lot, seeing the fifth-most snaps from the slot (68) while also leading the NFL in red-zone targets, with five. Tom Brady loves quick throws to his slot receiver, as he is able to diagnose zone versus man coverage off the motion and avoid potential pass rush. It has been Brady’s bread and butter forever, and with fewer pass-catching threats out of the backfield, Godwin has soaked up a lot of those targets.

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Take a look at our inactives, starting lineups and depth charts for NFL games. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL tools for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL stacks.
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