As Week 5’s Sunday slate approaches, look to use the NFL DFS projections and the new DraftKings NFL Tiers Projections Tool as a sneak peek for projected and optimal ownership, which yields the overall leverage over the field for each of the eight tiers. Below we will break down the best DraftKings NFL tiers picks from each respective tier, using the new tool to help identify the top players from various pricing levels. This week’s full-slate contest is labeled “Playmakers” and offers a positional approach to creating tiers.
Week 5 NFL DFS DraftKings Tiers: Playmakers Picks
Pocket Passer Tier: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 9.3%
Cincinnati hosts Green Bay in a matchup carrying the third-highest total on Sunday’s slate (50.5 points). As the least owned quarterback of the tier, Burrow offers tremendous leverage. The matchups on the perimeter will be favorable for the Bengals, as the Packers defense ranks 20th in pass DVOA and now is likely without star cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder). Targeting underdog quarterbacks yields additional pass attempts, and for Burrow (who is third with 9.2 yards per attempt), that is a beneficial combination. Additionally, one of his favorite targets, Tee Higgins, is set to return after a two-week absence. With the line getting closer (-3.0) and the total continuing to rise, this has the feeling of a prime matchup to target.
Mobile Quarterback Tier: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 18.4%
Jones is fresh off a career-high 402 yards passing against New Orleans and now sees a Dallas defense that offers a favorable matchup for the Giants, whose offensive weapons are back healthy. Dallas is 23rd in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.5) and second-to-last in yards passing allowed (315.3 per game). This game carries the second-highest total of the week (52), and Jones can attack through the air and the ground, as evidenced by his team-leading 188 yards rushing heading into Week 5.
Bell Cow Running Back Tier: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 32%
The name of the tier is bell cow, so look no further than the unanimous bell cow of the league. Henry enters Week 5 as the league leader in carries per game (28.3) and total carries in red zone (19). This week’s matchup with Jacksonville offers a defense that has allowed the sixth-most points per game (28.8) and has seen the fifth-most opponent rushing attempts per game (30.8). The opportunity is too big to pass up on the league’s most well-established bell cow, who already has 30 more carries than anyone in the NFL.
Target Leader Tier: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 8.6%
Evans is the slate’s second-best leverage play and enters Week 5 with the second-most routes run (40.8 per game). He is also sixth in the NFL in unrealized air yards (242), air yards (114 per game) and red-zone targets (seven). The opportunities have grown each week for Evans, who has seen his target total climb weekly, with target counts of six, eight, 10 and 12. With Rob Gronkowski out, Tom Brady has looked to Evans as a field stretcher and as a big target in the middle of the field. Miami runs as much man-to-man coverage as any team in the NFL, so look for Evans to thrive from his increased opportunity and man-beating skillset.
Tier 6 Pick: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Awesemo Ownership Projection: 10%
The stack of the week comes against the Packers, as Burrow and Chase will reap the benefits of a vulnerable corner group. A combination of Eric Stokes and Kevin King will be tasked with covering the outside receivers, while Chandon Sullivan will work in the slot. Chase enters Week 5 as the second-most targeted Bengal while ranking eighth in the NFL in yards per reception (17.5). Green Bay has already allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers, and with the depleted secondary this is a golden matchup to target.
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