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- Less top-heavy contents: Paying out a minimum of 25% of players in paid contests. Fewer top-heavy structures means less variance for GPP players and more chances to get a return on your investment.
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Patrick Mahomes: Grade: A, Value: A
Patrick Mahomes should destroy Houston. The Bills and Josh Allen let up on Houston when they thought they had the game in control out of fear that Allen would ruin the game for them. Their lack of aggressiveness kept Houston alive. Kansas City will not do the same. Mahomes stacked with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill is a chalk play of the week and they should be. Swap the secondary pass catchers like Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman or DeMarcus Robinson into the mix in some lineups but I consider the core Chiefs stack to be the one I’ll want more than any this week by a wide margin. Houston has a slate-worst 56 coverage grade from PFF and allows a slate-high 267 passing yards per game with a slate-high 5.6% passing touchdown rate. – Chris Spags.
Dalvin Cook: Grade: B, Value: B
In the biggest game of the year, Dalvin Cook carried the ball 28 times, a season-high. After resting him to end the regular season, Cook is fresh and ready to carry this offense. He was six yards shy of becoming the first running back to rush for 100 yards against the Saints in over 40 games, but still found the end zone twice. The Vikings stayed committed to the run, calling run 54 percent of the time against the Saints, a number that was about five percent higher than their season run rate.
Minnesota will continue to give him 25-30 touches in this game, making him a very strong cash game play. Though the potential return of Kwon Alexander could really bolster this San Francisco run defense. According to The QuantEdge, opponents have a 51.1 percent run success rate with Alexander off the field this year, compared to a 44.6 percent success rate when he’s available. – Adam Pfeifer
Tyreek Hill: Grade: A, Value: B
Houston deserves some credit for their secondary’s performance against Buffalo. Sure, the Bills do not have a rip-roaring passing attack, but they have some receivers capable of game-breaking production. And none of them popped. This week, however, should be a different animal. For one, the Texans do not get Josh Allen, they see perhaps the most explosive passer in the game, Patrick Mahomes. They also see the epitome of taking the top off the defense in Tyreek Hill. Houston has generally been decent defending the deep ball, ranking top-10 in DVOA against deep passing. But with Hill, sometimes the pass does not have to travel far to make for big plays. So instead of vulnerable deep coverage, I am looking more at volume.
Houston’s coverage was strong against Buffalo but their three primary corners — Bradley Roby, Gareon Conley and Vernon Hargreaves — saw a lot of targets. They combined for 41, allowing 16 receptions and 166 yards with no touchdowns. That volume is a bit extreme, but they did well to prevent a lot of subsequent production. Still, the quantity of opportunity has me a bit giddy to target Chiefs receivers this week. 41 of 48 Buffalo pass attempts, 85.4 percent, had Houston corners in primary coverage. To me, that suggests that the Bills saw the Texans corners as a liability on defense and Andy Reid will likely do the same.
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Hill does not need much to pay off in NFL DFS. He played in only 10 full games this year, yet tied for fifth in deep touchdowns and 10th in deep yards. He was efficient outside of the deep ball as well, recording 2.45 yards per route, fourth-best in the NFL. Hill moves around outside and in, playing almost half his snaps in the slot and adding three touchdowns when lined up inside. That means he will get matchups not only with Conley and Roby — Houston’s “good” corners — but also Hargreaves, their most exploitable one. With the Texans’ high volume coverage and Hill’s slate-breaking ability, he is worth one of the highest NFL DFS prices this weekend. – Sam Smith
Travis Kelce or George Kittle: Grades: A, Values: B
Take your pick between these two elite TEs on the weekend slate. If fact, with the extra FantasyDraft FLEX spot, you don’t even have to choose. George Kittle has the tougher matchup against Viking safety Anthony Harris, who has been elite at defending opposing TEs this season. Minnesota ranks first in DVOA against opposing TEs this year. But Kittle is no ordinary TE and the tough matchup should lower ownership a bit. Houston on the other hand is middle of the pack at defending the position and Kansas City is implied for a slate high 30 points. Travis Kelce should feast in this matchup. Lean Kelce, though he’ll get more ownership.
