The NFL season continues to Week 13 with a full slate of NFL DFS action provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece will examine the NFL DFS slate early in the week to find potential NFL DFS picks that will return the most value. Based on the salaries released by both DraftKings and FanDuel, we will go over some of the best Week 13 NFL DFS picks, but keep an eye on the news as the week progresses. A value play early in the week could turn into a bust chalk play due to injury or COVID-related illness. The best way to stay plugged in for all the news and notes throughout the week is by catching all the Awesemo NFL DFS Strategy and Picks shows on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.
NFL First Look: Week 13 NFL DFS Picks
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. PIT ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
After missing Week 11 with an illness, Jackson turned in his worst performance of the 2021 season. He only threw for 165 yards, a touchdown and four interceptions. Fortunately, his 17 carries and 68 yards rushing somewhat saved his day. Ultimately, Jackson managed to get to 13.5 points in his worst performance of the year. Jackson averages 24.8 points per game and has played excellent football. His 64.2% completion percentage and 7.8 yards per attempt rival his MVP season. However, a 4.4% touchdown rate and 12 interceptions make him slightly more volatile. With that said, Jackson’s price has now fallen below $8,000 and his ceiling is still high. He also enters the week as a 3-point favorite over a Steelers team that just lost 41-10 to the Bengals. Another week removed from his illness, Jackson is a strong buy-low in DFS.
Tom Brady, TB vs. ATL ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Another player coming off a down week, Brady threw for just 226 yards and one touchdowns in Week 1. Unlike Jackson, Brady did not play poorly. He completed 73.5% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt. Leonard Fournette just happened to be the player securing most of the touchdowns. Now Brady and the NFL’s highest-scoring offense face the Falcons as 11-point favorites in a game with a 50.5-point total. Atlanta’s defense ranks bottom three in points per play allowed, making Brady another strong bounce-back candidate.
Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs. LV ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Heinicke did not receive a salary adjustment ahead of Week 13. Washington enters the week as 2.5-point underdogs to Las Vegas in a game with a 49.5-point total. Heinicke has been serviceable this year, completing 66.2% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. More importantly, Heinicke provides a strong rushing floor averaging 27.6 yards rushing per game. While Heinicke does not bring the name recognition, he provides a combination of a strong floor, cheap price and solid matchup against a scrambling Las Vegas team. The Raiders have allowed over 20 points in all but one game this year and over 32 in each of their last three.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. DET ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
Dalvin Cook is expected to miss multiple weeks after sustaining a shoulder injury in Week 12. When Cook has been out in the past, Mattison has handled a feature workload in his place. Earlier this year Mattison recorded 112 and 113 yards rushing on 51 carries in two starts without Cook. He also saw 15 targets in that span, making him the same play as Cook at a cheaper price. Mattison also benefits from a matchup against the incompetent Lions. The Vikings are 7-point favorites in a game with a 47-point total. Mattison is a priority play this week.
Darrell Henderson, JAX vs. LAR ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Coming out of the bye, Henderson resumed his usual workload with the Rams. He had 16 carries for 55 yards while catching all four of his targets for another 18 yards and a touchdown. Henderson only saw nine touches in his prior game, but he was also evaluated for an injury in that one. Henderson has double-digit touches in every other game this year, quietly supporting a strong workload. This week Henderson and the Rams are 12.5-point favorites over the Jaguars in a game with a 48-point total. At a cheap price on both platforms, Henderson should be a staple of low-risk contests in DFS.
Eli Mitchell, SF vs. SEA ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
After the missing the previous week due to injury, Mitchell returned in Week 12 to play on 70% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps. More importantly, Mitchell totaled 133 yards and a touchdowns on 27 carries. He also showed increased involvement in the pass game, catching five of six targets for another 34 yards and touchdown. Mitchell now has at least five catches in two of his last three games. This week Mitchell draws the Seahawks as a 2.5-point favorite in a game with a 46.5-point total. With San Francisco’s desire to run the ball, plus an injury to Deebo Samuel working in his favor, Mitchell looks like another cheaper running back to consider on the Week 13 main slate.
Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett, SF vs. SEA ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
Lockett missed the weekly salary adjustments. On the year Lockett has a 26.4% target share and 40.8% air yards share. While most of that is frontloaded prior to Russell Wilson’s injury, Lockett still has over 100 yards receiving in two of his last three games. With Wilson now fully healthy, a spike in offensive efficiency should benefit Lockett. Seattle’s game is projected to be close, and with a falling price and a tight distribution of targets, Lockett is a solid rebound candidate against the 49ers.
Michael Pittman, IND vs. HOU ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
In a game where Indianapolis scored 31 points, Pittman amazingly only put up 53 scoreless yards. Still, Pittman had 10 targets and 152 air yards. On the year Pittman leads the Colts in target share (23.6%) and air yards share (32.6%). Even with T.Y. Hilton returning from injury, Pittman’s volume has been constant. This week the Colts are 8.5-point favorites over the Texans in a game with a 46-point total. While Indianapolis could take the air out of the ball while playing with a lead, Pittman’s efficiency likely would contribute to that lead to begin with.
Mike Williams, LAC vs. CIN ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
After a strong start to the year, Williams has quieted of late. In Week 12 Williams only caught four of eight targets for 39 yards in a 28-13 loss to the Broncos. However, Williams still was heavily involved and was only behind Keenan Allen in targets. On the year Williams has a 20.1% target share and 31.2% air yards share. As the deep threat, Williams’ skillset leads to boom/bust potential. This week the Chargers are 3-point underdogs to the Bengals in a game with a 50.5-point total, which is tied for the highest total on the board.
Tight Ends
George Kittle, SF vs. SEA ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The tight end position looks thinner than normal without Travis Kelce on the main slate and Darren Waller injured. With Deebo Samuel also battling injury, Kittle could see a larger workload in Week 13. Kittle has been inconsistent since returning from injury in Week 9. He has just six combined targets over the last two weeks, but an injury to Samuel would vacate 29.2% of the targets and 32.2% of the air yards. With a potential shootout against Seattle brewing, Kittle could see a much larger share of the receiving workload.
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Cole Kmet, ARI vs. CHI ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Slowly taking on a larger role in the Chicago offense, Kmet has at least six targets in four of his last six games. In Week 12, Kmet caught eight of 11 targets for 65 yards as a security blanket for Andy Dalton. Justin Fields is questionable for this week, but even he has shown a willingness to target Kmet of late. Allen Robinson still looks highly questionable to make his return, making Kmet a focal point of the Chicago offense. The Bears are still 7.5-point underdogs to the Cardinals in a game with a 46-point total, but Kmet’s increased usage warrants consideration in GPPs.
Foster Moreau, WAS vs. LV ($2,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
Waller is unlikely to play in Week 13 after injuring his IT band on Thanksgiving. Waller missed one game already this year, and Moreau played every down and secured all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. Even with Waller playing a bit last week, Moreau still saw five targets when filling in. As 2.5-point favorites in a game with a 49.5-point total, Moreau looks like the preferred punt tight end play on the Week 13 main slate.
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