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NFL DFS First Look: Week 3 DraftKings & FanDuel Picks

Matt Gajewski

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NFL Player prop bets betting picks Justin Herbert Week 4 MOnday Night football Raiders vs. Chargers over/under best bets predictions picks and parlays

The NFL season continues to Week 3 with a full slate of NFL DFS action provided by DraftKings and FanDuel. This piece will examine the NFL DFS slate early in the week to find potential NFL DFS picks that will return the most value. Based on the salaries released by both DraftKings and FanDuel, we go over some of the best Week 3 NFL DFS picks, but keep an eye on the news as the week progresses. A value play early in the week could turn into a bust chalk play due to injury or COVID-related illness. The best way to stay plugged in for all the news and notes throughout the week is by catching all the Awesemo NFL DFS Strategy and Picks shows on the Awesemo YouTube Channel.

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NFL First Look: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson, BAL v. DET ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

Jackson draws a dream matchup in Week 3 against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 48.5 total. He has 86 and 107 yards rushing in his first two games and also has at least 235 yards passing in those contests. Detroit has yet to play their Week 2 game, but they gave up 41 points in Week 1 and lost their best corner in Jeff Okudah for the year.

Justin Herbert, LAC v. KC ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Through two games the Chargers have found themselves in a pair of shootouts. With Kansas City on deck, Week 3 looks like much of the same. Unlike last year, the Chargers are even more pass heavy. Herbert threw for 337 yards on 47 attempts in Week 1 and 338 yards on 41 attempts in Week 2. This game does not have a total yet after the Chiefs played on Sunday Night Football, but it should be near the top for the week.

Matthew Stafford, TB v. LAR ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

Another premier shootout spot, the Rams take on the Buccaneers as 1.5-point favorites in a game with a 54.5 total. The Buccaneers have already played in a pair of shootouts, allowing 29 and 25 points to the Cowboys and Falcons. The Rams put up 34 and 27 themselves through the first two weeks. Stafford already has 599 yards and five touchdowns through two games. While he does not have the rushing upside of the players listed above, Stafford has GPP-winning upside with his arm alone.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, IND v. TEN ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel)

After two high-scoring games to start the year, Tennessee takes on Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite in a game with a 50.5-point total. Henry’s elite usage continued in Week 2, with 182 yards and three touchdowns on 35 carries. More importantly, Henry has seen a spike in receiving work this season. Henry now has target counts of four and six to start the year. In Week 2 he caught all six targets for 55 yards. Henry has been limited to two-down work in the past, so a three down workload is a scary thought.

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Chris Carson, SEA v. MIN ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)

Through two weeks Carson has 81.9% of Seattle’s running back touches. With a poor defense on the other side, Seattle looks likely to be in shootouts throughout the year. Week 3 projects for much of the same, with Seattle entering the Week as a 1.5-point favorite over the Vikings in a game with a 55.5-point total. Carson only saw 13 carries in Week 2, but better days are ahead for him.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LAC v. KC ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

On the other side of the Chiefs – Chargers game, Edwards-Helaire saw a sharp decrease in price following another game with 3 yards per carry However, Edwards-Helaire has a consistent role in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. He has handled 85.4% of the Chiefs’ running back touches. While the Chiefs continue to rely on the pass, they have put up 33 and 35 points to start the year, with Edwards-Helaire registering none of that. He is a solid buy-low in DFS.

Sony Michel, TB v. LAR ($4,900 DraftKings, Sony Michel ($5,700)

Darrell Henderson got hurt last week and Michel was the only other back to receive a touch following the injury. He ended up carrying 10 times for 46 yards and now appears poised to handle a majority of the work for one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. The matchup is tough against one of the NFL’s best run defenses, but Michel is a solid contrarian play in an elite game environment.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen, LAC v. KC ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

For those looking to stack Herbert, Allen comes in underpriced in DFS again in Week 3. Allen has seen 21 targets, which equates to a 24.4% target share in the offense. Allen also has 35% of the air yards in a very narrow target distribution. The Chiefs have allowed 267 yards passing per game, with Lamar Jackson included in that sample. Allen is an elite stacking option with Herbert.

Robert Woods, TB v. LAR ($5,700, DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

One positive to Stafford stacks is the narrow target distribution between Woods and Cooper Kupp. Kupp likely will draw more ownership after seeing 21 targets to start the year. However, this makes Woods a solid leverage play after seeing 13 targets himself (23.6% target share). Woods also has a 26.3% air yards share and a legitimate every-down role. Woods offers leverage off a chalkier Kupp, but both can be played and perhaps together in Stafford tournament stacks.

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Rondale Moore, ARI v. JAX ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Moore has had strong showing to start the year and now has 68 and 114 yards receiving in two games for Arizona. This includes 13 targets, which leads the team. Moore has concerns with his 46% snap share. However, that number continues to rise as Moore plays his way into an every-down role.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, CHI v. CLE ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Jarvis Landry is hurt, and Odell Beckham is questionable coming off an ACL tear. Peoples-Jones may operate as a legitimate every-down player for Cleveland this week. He only has two targets through his first two games, but his snap share sits at 77.5% to open the season. The game environment against the Bears is not exciting, but Peoples-Jones comes in at the minimum price. Injuries must be monitored throughout the week here, but with without Landry or Beckham, Peoples-Jones offers elite salary relief.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts, ATL v. NYG ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

While he has yet to parlay his volume into an elite DFS score, Pitts continues to go undervalued. He has 14 targets through two NFL games, and in Week 2 he managed 73 scoreless yards on six targets. He ranks second on the Falcons in targets and air yards, behind only Calvin Ridley. He has also played out wide or in the slot on 67% of his offensive snaps.

Noah Fant, NYJ v. Den ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Denver lost Jerry Jeudy for multiple weeks, vacating a massive offensive role. Fant appears to have absorbed much of this role. He ranks second on the team with 14 targets, which equates for a 20.4% target share. The Giants have given up 27 and 30 points through their first two games, giving Fant a solid matchup in Week 3.

Tyler Higbee, TB v LAR ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Higbee was a complete bust in Week 2, but the underlying usage was there. Higbee played 100% of the snaps and ran a route on 81% of dropbacks. He was also out wide or in the slot 15 times. However, he only saw one target after being targeted six times in Week 1. Better days will come for Higbee, and a shootout against the Buccaneers looks like a sharp time to buy low.

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If you’re interested in other DFS NFL football for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL DFS rankings, and daily fantasy football stacking. Take a look at our inactive player list, NFL depth chart list and NFL starting line-ups.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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