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From the Slot: Week 10 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks & Ownership Projections

Geoff Ulrich



This article will highlight some of the week’s highest-projected NFL DFS picks today at each position on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, all based off Awesemo’s NFL DFS projections and models. Week 10 has 10 games on the main slate, with bye weeks for the Bears, Giants, Bengals and Texans. There are three games with over/unders that are north of 50 points this week, with the largest on the slate being Dallas – Atlanta which had crept up to 54.5. Washington – Tampa Bay and Chargers – Vikings are also above 50.

We will provide a little insight into ownership projections and matchup information but also be sure to subscribe to Awesemo to access the full DFS site projections, ownership projections and other great tools each week.

Week 10 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

QB Josh Allen | Grades: A, Values: A

Much like last week, Josh Allen is projecting off the charts in a great matchup. Allen posted a dud against the Jaguars last week, managing just 12.56 DraftKings points despite attempting 47 passes against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. It was truly one of the biggest bust performances of the year, there is no reason to be overly worried about it. Allen still ran for over 50 yards in that game, and the Bills attempting 47 passes in a 9-6 game shows again how committed they are to both passing and making Allen their primary point of attack.

Allen is throwing downfield less in 2021 (just 7 yards per attempt this year), but the Jets present a solid cure for that ailment. Over the last three games there has been no secondary worse at limiting big plays, as they have allowed 9 yards per pass attempt over that span. The last four opposing quarterbacks the Jets have faced have averaged 314 yards passing and 2.5 touchdowns a game. Allen does not just have strong ratings, he is busting off the charts in Awesemo’s projections, 3.7 points above the second-rated quarterback on the slate. Despite the hiccup last week, Allen is the epitome of a good pay-up option for Week 10.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 14.2%

RB Aaron Jones | Grades: B, Values: B

If paying all the way up quarterback, it will be necessary to look for good value options at other positions. Running back offers an interesting way to save some cash, as Aaron Jones is moderately priced and trending with solid grades that match the expensive running backs on the slate. Jones is the sixth-ranked running back in the projections this week, but only about 2.5 points separates first and sixth. There is also the savings in opting for Jones.

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At $6,900 on DraftKings, Jones has the best value rating of anyone above $6,000 in the Awesemo model, and he takes on a Seahawks team that has given up huge yardage to running backs through the air and the seventh-most receptions to the position. Jones had a poor day with Jordan Love at quarterback last week, but there is more potential against the Seahawks, who allowed Alvin Kamara to rack up 128 yards through the air with Jameis Winston under center. Jones is the best upper-tier value and still has an outside shot of getting to play with Aaron Rodgers.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 14.7%

WR Diontae Johnson | Grades: B, Values: B

Diontae Johnson sometimes gets forgotten about in fantasy due to the Steelers’ overall stagnation on offense. Pittsburgh is only averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt this year (sixth worst in the league), but it has not stopped Johnson from being a great volume play. He has caught nine or more receptions three times already this year and is averaging 17.5 DraftKings points despite only having scored three touchdowns. That is elite production considering some of the opponents he has faced thus far (Buffalo, Denver and Cleveland), and Week 10 may represent his first true chance to post a ceiling game.

The Lions are bad, but they may have regressed even further of late in terms of how they defend the pass. They are still last in yards per pass attempt against but rank bottom 10 in sack rate too, which should give Ben Roethlisberger more time to find Johnson against an outmatched secondary. Johnson rates extremely well on Awesemo this week, as he sits third in wide receiver projections on the main slate, but like Jones, he has the best value score of anyone above $6,000 on DraftKings. His reasonable salary against one of the worst secondaries in the league will allow for building around higher-priced stacks and makes him a desirable option for Week 10.

Johnson and the rest of the Steelers are one of the teams Billy Ward homed in on, and he is backing them hard in his Week 10 NFL Survivor Picks article. Check out who the other options are.

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Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 13.1%

TE Dalton Schultz | Grades: B, Values: B

It would have sounded crazy to say at the start of the year, but Dalton Schultz has truly developed into one of the most consistent options at tight end in 2021. He has five or more catches in five of the Cowboys seven games from this season and is third on the team in targets, a touch behind Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Schultz has also shown some improved athleticism this year too, as he is up to 11.5 yards per catch and has played on over 80% of the snaps in the Cowboys’ last three starts.

Schultz is not likely to crash the elite tier of tight ends anytime soon, but considering Dallas still throws the ball a ton — over 37 times per game in 2021 — his floor for fantasy purposes is about as safe as it gets. Despite all this, he is relatively affordable at just $5,000 this week and has the second-best points projection at his position on this main slate. The fact Dallas has a massive 31.5 implied team total and a soft matchup with Atlanta makes him a great option at tight end, especially with ownership that is projecting in the single digits early in the week.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 8.1%

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Top NFL DFS Stack: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Awesemo Top Stacks Tool shows three teams with a 10% chance or better of being the top stack. The only team with a quarterback ownership projection of lower than 10%, though, is the Buccaneers. Despite Tom Brady averaging 27.6 DraftKings points per game and facing one of the worst pass defenses in the league — and the team that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2021 — Brady is trending for mild ownership compared to his higher-priced counterparts.

Stacking Brady against Washington may not be that difficult either, as Antonio Brown is still in a walking boot as of Monday, and his absence allowed Chris Godwin to thrive. Godwin has 23 targets in his last two games and yet is not trending for high ownership either, as it seems like DFS players simply do not want to pay for Brady. The Buccaneers passing game sets up as a great one to target for larger fields.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback Ownership DraftKings: 6.2%

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If you’re interested in other DFS NFL football picks for multiple game slates, head over to NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL DFS rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. View our DraftKings NFL DFS ownership rankings and our FanDuel NFL ownership rankings. Take a look at our inactive players, depth charts for NFL games and NFL starting lineups. We also have showdown projections and showdown ownership projections.
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