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From the Slot: Week 11 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks & Ownership Projections

Geoff Ulrich

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This article will highlight some of the week’s highest-projected NFL DFS picks today at each position on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, all based off Awesemo’s NFL DFS projections and models. Week 11 has games on the main slate. There are games with over/unders that are north of 50 points this week, the largest on the slate being Dallas – Kansas City (56.5 as of writing).

We will provide a little insight into ownership projections and matchup information but also be sure to subscribe to Awesemo to access the full DFS site projections, ownership projections and other great tools each week.

Week 11 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

QB Patrick Mahomes | Grades: A, Values: A

It is going to feel a bit like chasing points, but the data says to feel good about paying up for Patrick Mahomes again. The Chiefs head into this week with a 29-point total, the highest on the main slate. Gamers should not read too much into Dallas’ dominant win against Atlanta last week either. If going by pure yardage stats, Dallas has not faced a top-five offense since Week 1 when Tom Brady threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns against them.

Mahomes is still averaging well over 24 DraftKings points on the season despite being on a career-worst trajectory for interceptions. He is likely due for a little positive luck in that area and completed over 70% of his passes for the first time since Week 4 last week. Mahomes has the second-highest points projection on the main slate for Week 11, but at just $7,600 he also has one of the best value scores among the more expensive plays. He is a great starting point for Week 11 rosters.

Awesemo NFL writer Matt Gajewski is also extremely high on Mahomes after his breakout game. Check out what Matt is saying about Mahomes in his Week 11 NFL First Look article breaking down the DraftKings and FanDuel salaries.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 11.7%

RB A.J. Dillon | Grades: B, Values: B

Mid-tier running backs have carried rosters time and time again to wins in big GPPs this year. With that in mind, A.J. Dillon should be in for a massive workload with Aaron Jones looking doubtful. Dillion is not priced like some of the cheap running backs that were available last week, but he is still underpriced for a player who is in line for 20-plus touches. Dillon has averaged 4.9 yards per carry or more in three of his last five games and has converted his last six targets into catches for 106 total yards.

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Dillon seems to be taking a step forward in production and faces off against one of the league’s worst run defenses in Minnesota. The Vikings have allowed 4.7 yards per carry on the year (second worst in the league), and teams are running over 27 times per game against them this year. Dillon has the fifth-best points projection for main-slate running backs this week and has the best value score of any running back above $6,000 on DraftKings. He also has soft ownership projections and makes for a heady pivot off the heavily owned players at his position.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 10.5%

WR Deebo Samuel | Grades: B, Values: B

Deebo Samuel touched the ball five times against the Rams last Monday night and cashed in two touchdowns (one receiving and one rushing) while piling up 97 yards on just five catches. Samuel’s breakout season still seems to be going under the radar, but he leads the league in yards after the catch (ahead of even Cooper Kupp) and faces a Jacksonville team that ranks sixth worst in yards per pass attempt against.

The Jaguars have played better of late, but this is a still a great spot to load up on San Francisco players, as the 49ers have a solid 26-point implied team total. Samuel is third in point projection this week but has an ownership projection that is less than half of that of the top two players are projecting. He is a great target in large fields where the 49ers skill players may all go under-owned.

Geoff Ulrich is also loving Samuel’s outlook this week, and pinpointed him as one of the best options on the Yahoo platform. Geoff’s Yahoo Daily Fantasy Week 11 Preview & Value Plays has a full breakdown of Samuel, and a position-by-position outlook.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 8.7%

TE Mike Gesicki | Grades: B, Values: B

It is admittedly hard to make a case for a player who went 0-for-7 last week in converting his targets, but Mike Gesicki is one of the rare tight-ends in the league who has proven he has legit slate-breaking upside. Twice already he has gone for over 21 fantasy points on DraftKings this year, and prior to last week he had also caught eight or more catches in three of his last four games. The weird no-catch anomaly game is likely going to drive people away from the fact that he is averaging 7.2 targets in his last five games and is facing the Jets, who have allowed a league-worst 9.7 yards per attempt in their last three games.

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The Dolphins target tree mainly centers around three players (with DeVante Parker out), and Gesicki, even though he had a trying Week 10, is going to remain one of those main cogs. He ranks fourth in point projection on the main slate for Sunday but also has the best value score among the top four plays and ownership projecting under 6%. He is a great large-field GPP target in Week 11.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 5.2%


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Top NFL DFS Stack: Bengals

The Bengals head into Vegas this week with a 25-point implied total in a game with spread hovering around 1 point in their favor. Cincinnati has lost two straight games but come in off a bye and face a Raiders team that just allowed Mahomes to complete 70% of his passes for five touchdowns and over 400 yards. Joe Burrow is having a great season and comes in averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and just under a 70% completion rate.

Despite the nice numbers and an opponent that has allowed three or more touchdowns passing in three of its last five games, Burrow and his skill players do not seem to be getting much steam. They are a top-five option in the Awesemo Stacks Tool this week in terms of upside, though, and using Burrow with one or both of Joe Mixon (nine receptions for 104 yards and touchdown in his last two games) and Ja’Marr Chase should provide access to an under-owned stack in large fields. There is plenty of upside with Cincinnati against a volatile Raiders team.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback Ownership DraftKings: 4.7%


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View our DraftKings NFL DFS rankings and our FanDuel NFL rankings. Take a look at our NFL inactives, NFL lineups and NFL depth chart list. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL tools for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL daily fantasy football rankings, and daily fantasy football stacking. We also have DraftKings showdown projections and DraftKings showdown ownership projections.
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