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From the Slot: Week 2 NFL DFS DraftKings Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades

Geoff Ulrich

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Week 1 came and went and, luckily, there are not many huge injuries to report. Jerry Jeudy and Raheem Mostert were two of the bigger names to go out, and both of those situations bear monitoring this week. This Sunday could be high scoring for fantasy purposes, as there are five games with totals of 50 or more. Seahawks – Titans (54) has the highest total, and Patriots – Jets (42.5) has the smallest on the Week 2 slate. This article will highlight some of the week’s highest-projected NFL DFS picks at each position on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, all based off Awesemo’s now famous projections and models. We will also provide insight into ownership projections and matchup information. Be sure to subscribe to Awesemo for NFL DFS advice though if you want access to the full DFS site projections, ownership projections and other great tools each week.

Week 2 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

QB Tom Brady | Grades: A, Values: A

Brady and the Buccaneers come into Week 2 off extra rest (they played Thursday) and off a game where their offense produced 379 yards passing and four touchdowns. The matchup once again is begging to be targeted; Tampa Bay has the highest implied team total of the entire week, at a whopping 32.75 points. They are -12.5 home favorites against Atlanta, who allowed Jalen Hurts to post 77.1% completion and a 126.4 passer rating in Week 1. And despite blowout potential, game script should not be a deterrent. Under Bruce Arians, Tampa has shown numerous times that they will throw the ball regardless of score, and they threw 50 times in Week 1 despite being ahead the entire game. In terms of projections, Brady has the third-best raw point total on the main slate this week but has the best value score of any quarterback in the Awesemo model. Take the discount on Brady because Tampa should score a lot of points this week.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 11.6%

RB Najee Harris | Grades: A, Values: A

Harris is coming off a Week 1 performance against Buffalo where he only managed 5.9 fantasy points on DraftKings and a meager 2.8 yards per carry. The game against Buffalo, though, devolved into a defensive struggle early, with special teams scoring also taking away some opportunities. Harris’ workload is focus should be, and that part of his debut was encouraging. He played all 58 of the Steelers’ offensive snaps and was the only running back to get a touch (16 carries and three targets). The Steelers offensive line continues to be an issue, but in weaker matchups (like the one he is getting in Week 2) Harris is an obvious target.

The Raiders projected to have a poor run defense again in 2021 (they were 26th in yards per carry against in 2020) and allowed 5.6 yards per attempt last week to Baltimore, along with 27 actual points. Pittsburgh also comes in as a 5.5-point favorite with a 26.25 implied team total. Harris’ Week 1 volume earned the attention of the projections this week, as he sits second in raw points projection (out of any running back playing in Week 2), and he also has the best value score of any running back on DraftKings. The price is simply too low for someone who could see 50-plus snaps against one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 27.1%

WR DeAndre Hopkins | Grades: A, Values: B

Hopkins had a big Week 1, as he and Kyler Murray connected for two touchdowns and were one of the highest-scoring quarterback/receiver duos on the slate. One of the big knocks against Hopkins last year was his red-zone usage (and lack of touchdowns), but it looks like the Cardinals may be rectifying that issue in 2021. Hopkins led Arizona with two red-zone targets in Week 1, with one being a designed screen pass, and he had his way for the most part with a weak secondary in Tennessee. He will get another great matchup in Week 2 against the Vikings, who allowed touchdowns to both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in Week 1 — and also let the rookie Chase go for over 100 yards receiving on just five catches.

Murray showed more willingness to throw downfield in Week 1 (9 yards per pass attempt), and the Vikings defense allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt (8) in Week 1. As expected, Hopkins grades really well this week, with the second-highest raw points projection on the slate. The Awesemo projections also project him for only 12 to 13% projected ownership.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.7%

TE Tyler Higbee | Grades: B, Values: B

Higbee was one of the nicer surprises at tight end in Week 1, as he was second in targets on the Rams, converting six targets into five catches. Higbee has had blips of elite output before, so this attention he is getting from Matthew Stafford should perk interest. No other tight end on the Rams saw a target on the night, and Higbee played all 52 of the Rams offensive snaps against the Bears, which cements the idea that this usage may continue all season.

The Rams offense looked miles better with Stafford under center against the Bears, and they will face a banged-up Colts defense in Week 2 that allowed new Seattle tight end Gerald Everett to find the end zone in Week 1. Higbee is only $4,100 on DraftKings but has the best points projection of any tight end on the slate under $5,000 — and he has the second-best value score of his position. With no Travis Kelce on the main slate and Darren Waller in a tough matchup, Higbee is a great pay-down option for Week 2.

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Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.1%

Top NFL DFS Stack: Arizona Cardinals

Last week the Awesemo stacking tool smashed as it correctly said a Chiefs stack had the best chance of being the highest scorer on the slate by a wide margin. The numbers are closer at the top this week, though, but Arizona stands out as a great option for a couple of reasons. They are one of only three teams on the slate with a 10% or better chance of being the top stack this week. Additionally, they have the highest leverage score in the tool, as their skill players are projected to get the least ownership from the field (at least early in the week). The high-priced stack of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill went off last week, and there is no reason another high-priced elite duo in Murray and Hopkins cannot replicate that success in Week 2 against a poor Vikings secondary.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: Quarterback Ownership DraftKings: 4.4%


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