This article will highlight some of the week’s highest-projected NFL DFS picks at each position on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, all based off Awesemo’s now NFL DFS projections and models. For Week 4 NFL DFS tips, there are five teams with implied team totals of 28 higher and four teams on the main Sunday slate who are favored by 7.5 or more. That means there are lots of projected points for some of the biggest names in fantasy.
We will also provide insight into ownership projections and matchup information. Be sure to subscribe to Awesemo to access the full DFS site projections, ownership projections and other great tools each week.
Week 4 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
QB Josh Allen | Grades: A, Values: A
Josh Allen is coming into Week 4 off one of the biggest fantasy performances of the season. He threw for four touchdowns and ran for another against what was supposed to be an elite Washington defense. Washington has not lived up to the hype this year, but last week was a massive bounce-back game in several regards. Before Week 3 Allen had thrown for well under 60% completion and was also throwing under 6 yards per attempt. Against Washington he completed 77% of his passes and was over 8 yards per attempt on his passes, which were both above even his breakout 2020 numbers.
Allen now gets Houston in Week 4, a team that just allowed Sam Darnold to go for 8.9 yards per pass last week and throw for over 30 yards. The Bills are going to have all kind of chances to score (they are projected with a 32.5 implied team total), and Allen has six red-zone rushes through three games. He may be the second-priciest quarterback on DraftKings, but he has the highest projection among all quarterbacks in the Awesemo model, and by nearly 2 points. It will be tough to find low-priced values to fit him in, but Allen is the quarterback to pay up for this week.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.3%
RB Alvin Kamara | Grades: A, Values: A
Much like Allen above, Alvin Kamara is in a monster spot this week. The Giants continue to find ways to lose, and this year their defense is helping by allowing lots of yards to opposing running backs. New York has allowed 4.6 yards per carry against in 2021, which is seventh worst in the league, and they have also allowed opposing running backs to catch 21 passes already (91% of their targets), which is fifth worst in the league.
Kamara’s usage has been a bit concerning, as he has only averaged 3.4 yards per carry and has also only averaged 4.75 targets per game. Even if he is seeing a little lighter usage, his efficiency against this Giants group should take a turn upwards. The Awesemo projections agree with this sentiment, as they have Kamara as the highest-projected running back on DraftKings by almost 4 points. New Orleans has blunted his upside a bit by playing at such a slow pace (second slowest in the league), but they also have a 25.5 implied team total against one of the bottom-tier rushing teams. Kamara is pricy but would likely be over $9,000 if he were coming off a big start to the year.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 23.4%
WR D.J. Moore | Grades: A, Values: A
D.J. Moore has had an inspiring start to the season. He saw his targets take a huge drawdown in 2020 despite setting a career high in yards per reception (18.1) on the season. Now Moore has returned to his previous target highs, and then some. So far he is out-targeting every other wide receiver on the team by 17 and is also setting a career high in catch rate, catching 71% if his targets.
The big factor here is the matchup. Dallas’ defense played well in Week 3, and cornerback Trevon Diggs, took an interception for a touchdown against the Eagles. Still, this defense has also allowed a ton of yardage to opposing wideouts and ceded the fourth-most receptions to the position this year. The projections, however, say that Moore is still too cheap in this matchup, as they project him second among all wide receivers this week.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15.9%
TE Noah Fant | Grades: C, Values: C
If paying up for moderately expensive or all the way expensive players at the other skill positions, focus some value on tight end. Noah Fant provides the opportunity to do just that. He has boosted his efficiency with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and has now averaged around six targets per game in 2021. That may not sound like much, but Fant is athletic and has caught 70% of passes through three weeks. With Jerry Jeudy banged up, expect Fant’s role as a pass catcher to possibly gain steam.
While not a top-projected player, Fant still grades strongly (seventh at the position) and has a terrific matchup against the Ravens, who have allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends this year. Denver has a small projected team total, but given how close the point spread here is, this could be a shootout to the end of the game. Baltimore has been bad at defending the pass in 2021, and Fant can take advantage. At just $4,300, he is projected to have decent returns and feels undervalued given the matchup.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.1%
Top NFL DFS Stack: Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are coming off a great win on Monday Night Football and now are on a short week to prepare for another home game against the suddenly surging Panthers. Carolina has done well in all areas on defense but projects as a better run-stopping unit, as they lead the league in yards per carry against. This is great news for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, as they have a solid 27.25 implied total and should go to a heavy passing attack in this spot. Prescott has completed 77% of his passes and does not project for a ton of ownership, to the point where Sam Darnold may even be more popular this week.
Pairing Prescott with either of his wide receivers should be fruitful for fantasy purposes, and it is worth noting that Amari Cooper averaged over 80 yards receiving and 14.96 yards per catch while at home last year. Dallas is projected in the Awesemo Stack Tool with the fourth-best chance of being the highest-scoring quarterback/wide receiver pairing on this slate, and gamers can mix and match Cooper and CeeDee Lamb when creating lineups. Dallas could surprise here and makes for a good pivot play in GPPs in Week 4.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: Quarterback Ownership DraftKings: 10.7%
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