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From the Slot: Week 5 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks & Ownership Projections

Geoff Ulrich

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This article will highlight some of the week’s highest-projected NFL DFS picks today at each position on the main slate for DraftKings and FanDuel, all based off Awesemo’s NFL DFS projections and models. For Week 5 there are only three games with point totals of 50 or higher on the main Sunday slate, with Giants – Cowboys having the biggest projected over/under, at 52 points. There could also be more muted fantasy totals here, as the defenses tend to win out more as the season goes on.

We will provide insight into ownership projections and matchup information. Be sure to subscribe to Awesemo to access the full DFS site projections, ownership projections and other great tools each week.

Week 5 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

QB Daniel Jones | Grades: B, Values: A

The Giants may be 1-3, but Daniel Jones has not played awful football this year at all. Jones had perhaps his best game as a pro against a Saints defense that was top five in most major passing defense metrics. Jones not only threw for 400 yards against the Saints, but he also completed 70% of his passes and threw for over 10 yards per attempt (without two of his best receivers). Jones should have at least one of Darius Slayton or Sterling Shepard back for this week and got the most out of Kenny Golladay, who went over 100 yards on six catches.

The Cowboys have ceded the most yards passing to opposing quarterbacks in 2021 and rank 12th-to-last in yards per attempt allowed this year, making them one of the highest-upside matchups for a quarterback. Jones has rushed for at least 27 yards in every game this year as well, and his DraftKings price has only risen $100 to $6,000 flat in Week 5. The Awesemo projections love him, as he has the fifth-highest projection at quarterback on the main slate, but with the best pure value score as well. Everything points to Jones, whose price has not caught up to his production.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 9.6%

RB Damien Williams | Grades: B, Values: A

The Bears running back situation took a hit last week when David Montgomery went down. He is not out for the year, but a multi-week absence is expected. Veteran Damien Williams stepped right in after Montgomery was injured, though, and promptly took all but a few touches (Khalil Herbert managed just 7 yards on three carries). Williams not only knows Matt Nagy from their time Kansas City, but he also looked effective last week, going for 6.8 yards per carry on eight rushes. The Bears depth chart is pretty grim after Williams, so a monster workload in Week 5 looks like a near certainty.

The even better news for DFS is that, since his price is up into the mid-$5,000 range, a lot of DFS players may not be that interested. Montgomery was taking over 17 touches a game before going down, though, and Williams inherits all those plus his old share. The matchup here is also brilliant, as Las Vegas again has a bottom-five run defense that has allowed 4.9 yards per carry. Despite just a 5,600 salary, Williams has the sixth-best points projection this week and carries one of the best value scores on the slate. If looking to pay down, do not be afraid to target Williams, who is going to be taking bell-cow workloads in Week 5 and beyond.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 8.8%

WR Deebo Samuel | Grades: A, Values: B

For a player who has averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game on DraftKings, Deebo Samuel is getting little hype. He seems to be a continued regression target for those who do not want to believe what they are seeing. Exactly what they are seeing is San Francisco’s move on offense to make Samuel their figurative alpha. He is not only seeing over 10 targets a game through four weeks, but he is being used on downfield passes, short dump-off is and even as a running back (five carries on the season). Only Tyreek Hill gets this kind of usage, and gamers should not scoff at the comparison.

Samuel is averaging 17.5 yards per reception and again leads the league in yards after the catch (he led in average yards after the catch last year). The Cardinals have stiffened up on defense this year but have still managed to be terrible against opposing wide receivers, allowing the third-most touchdowns to the position already. The Awesemo projections have been on Samuel’s breakout from the start (he was a top-10 play even in Week 1), and they love him again here. He has the second-best points projection on the Sunday main slate and at just $7,100 has the best value score of anyone $6,000 or more on DraftKings this week. Let others guess when he might cool off.

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TE Cameron Brate | Grades: C, Values: B

Tight end was again a course of frustration last week when Travis Kelce and George Kittle both went for muted games. Kelce is not on the main slate this week, but the good news is that there is some clear value opening at rock-bottom prices, and Cameron Brate stands out as one of the best bargains to bid for here. Brate and the entire Tampa Bay passing offense had a rough Week 4, but it was encouraging to see that Brate took in six targets and was the only tight end who caught a pass.

Miami’s cornerbacks are a strength of their team, but it is worth noting that they have not been nearly as successful in stopping tight ends this year, having already allowed three touchdowns to the position. Tampa also has a monster 29.25 implied team total, which is second highest on the slate, so plenty of red-zone opportunities could be on tap here. Brate’s price remains the biggest attraction of all, though, and he has the best value score on the slate for his position, making him a great pay-down target in Week 5.

Projected NFL DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 3.8%%

Top NFL DFS Stack: Green Bay Packers

There is not much spread between the top few teams in the Awesemo Stack Tool this week, as only 2.5 percentage points of probability of being the top stack separates the top four teams. The Packers have a perceived bad matchup in the Bengals, but this is also a Bengals defense that had some regression in Week 4, especially against the pass. It is also easy to stack with Green Bay, as Davante Adams is a 100% must-roster with Aaron Rodgers, and even Randall Cobb could work as a clear third wheel after he staked a claim to that position in Week 4.

Adams and Rodgers are the lynchpins here, however, as Adams has the highest projection at his position in Week 5, and Rodgers comes in as a likely fade for most at over $7,000. The Packers have a 26.25 implied team total (fifth highest on the main slate), and Cincinnati has only allowed 3.26 yards per carry this year to running backs. They are expensive, but on a slate with no clear-cut favorite, paying up for the Packers star duo provides piece of mind given the target rate of Adams and solid low ownership for GPPs.

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Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback Ownership DraftKings: 4.7%


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Take a look at our depth charts for NFL games, NFL inactives and starting lineups. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL football for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacks.
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