NFL DFS Picks: Awesemo Grades, Values Week 1 DraftKings

Welcome to Week 1 of the NFL DFS season. There’s plenty of news to highlight on the main slate as injuries and depth chart news have become more important with no preseason games to work off of. At running back, the biggest injuries to watch will be Miles Sanders and David Montgomery. Montgomery seems unlikely to play Week 1 but did return to practice recently. Sanders is on track to suit up but could get hit with a questionable tag, and there have already been rumors about his workload being cut back for Week 1. If either of these two end up being out or limited, it could open up value plays in the likes of Boston Scott, Tarik Cohen or Cordarrelle Patterson.

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There’s less injury news to watch at the other positions. Deebo Samuel (foot) remains highly questionable for Week 1, although he’s trending well, and rookie Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring) seems highly doubtful to play Week 1 right now as well. Kendrick Bourne could benefit for San Francisco in a great matchup against the Cardinals.

From a matchup perspective, expect some of the cheap Eagles players to garner heavy ownership, as they’re trending as -5.5 faves against a horrid Washington team. The San Francisco players will also be popular given their current -7 favorite status against one of last year’s worst defenses in the Cardinals.

NFL DFS PICKS Week 1

QB Teddy Bridgewater: Grades: C, Values: A

Bridgewater and the Panthers have an intriguing matchup against the Raiders this Sunday. Las Vegas has actually built up a pretty solid front seven, and with Christian McCaffrey trending towards being the chalkiest player on the slate, going with a Panthers pass stack in GPPs could give you good leverage. The Raiders will be starting a rookie (Damon Arnette) and the lowly rated Trayvon Mullen at corner, and they have the potential to be a bottom-five secondary this year. Pairing him with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel or even McCaffrey himself could give you exposure to a lower-owned stack in a game that has the third-highest total on the slate. Bridgewater rates out with slightly lower projections than other quarterbacks in the $5,000 range on DraftKings but has similar value ratings and lower ownership attached. The speedy Carolina receivers could easily feast in this home opener and Bridgewater — not McCaffrey — would be the main beneficiary if that happens.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 4.6%| FanDuel: 4.3%

RB Raheem Mostert: Grades: C, Values: C

There’s an obvious cap on Mostert’s touches for DFS this year, as San Francisco is unlikely to use him as the primary back or give him 25 touches with Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon in tow behind him. At the same time, the volume for Mostert, who is listed as the No. 1 back for San Francisco should be pretty solid out of the gate. McKinnon isn’t likely to steal away huge touches in his first game in over a year, so that leaves just Coleman, who averaged four touches per game in the 49ers’ last four regular season games of 2019. The matchup here is also super enticing as the 49ers enter this game as -7 home favorites against the Cardinals, who ranked fourth in pace of play last but also ceded the 13th-worst yards per carry to opposing running backs last season. While he doesn’t have the highest grades this week in the Awesemo projections, Mostert carries the second-best total point projection of any running back in the $5,000 range on DraftKings and is projected for just 5% ownership on that site. He’s a solid pay-down target with better than advertised upside for big field GPPs.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.3%| FanDuel: 10.5%

Related NFL Week 1 Content

WR Allen Robinson: Grades: B, Values: B

Robinson should benefit from a couple different factors this week. While Mitchell Trubisky winning the quarterback competition may scare some people, the embattled quarterback certainly lifted Robinson down the stretch last year, giving the receiver double-digit targets in five of the Bears last six games from 2019. There’s reason to think he’ll continue that trend in Week 1 with Montgomery — the Bears’ only real early down back — banged up at the moment. Robinson will also likely be going up against a rookie in third-overall pick Jeff Okudah here, which is really going to test how well he adjusts to the NFL right out of the gate. Robinson doesn’t seem likely to get overly chalky in this spot yet projects with the seventh-best projected point total at receiver in the Awesemo model and has the highest projection of any receiver in the $6,000 range on DraftKings. With the Bears hurting at running back and the Lions having Matthew Stafford back to keep the pressure on the Bears offense, the ingredients for a big Week 1 for Robinson are there.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14.8%| FanDuel: 12.7%

TE Dallas Goedert: Grades: C, Values: C

The Eagles have a terrific matchup in Week 1 against the Washington Football Team, which should lead to higher ownership on a lot of Philadelphia’s skill players. Goedert is one Eagles player who certainly isn’t projecting with overly chalky ownership and could be a great leverage play in this spot against the Zach Ertz chalk. The Eagles will be without Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver for game 1 — look for DeSean Jackson and Greg Ward to start — so Goedert should see solid usage as a receiver against Washington. The third-year player saw six or more targets in each of the Eagles last seven games of 2019 with a similarly banged-up receiving core. Despite being in a tight end “platoon,” so to speak, he carries the second-highest projection of any tight end under $5,000 in salary on DraftKings and the seventh-best value rating at his position overall. If you want lower-owned exposure to the Eagles offense, Goedert is a great way to go about achieving that.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 5.7%| FanDuel: 4.3%

Contrarian Stack: Seahawks

This feels like a classic pay-up spot to get lower ownership on some higher-end players. The Falcons will be featuring one of the worst secondaries in the league this year with Isaiah Oliver likely to be matched up with D.K. Metcalf. Oliver had the 16th-worst PFF rating of any cornerback on this slate last year and could get absolutely worked by Metcalf here, who has a three inch height advantage and 20-pound weight advantage on the corner. Atlanta tight end Hayden Hurst is projected to be one of the chalkier tight ends on the slate, so adding in Greg Olsen (projected at 1.6% on DraftKings for Week 1) to a Seahawks passing stack with Russell Wilson (5.2% projected ownership on DraftKings) might be better for GPPs. The Seahawks added some depth at corner this offseason, which could make this tough for the smaller Calvin Ridley, who is projected to be higher-owned at the moment than Julio Jones. Paying up for Jones could get you slightly lower ownership and would be a nice way to complete this game stack in a matchup where both teams project with team totals of 24 or more.

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