Week 11 of the NFL season is here, and that mean’s we’ve reached the Witching Hour! (shout out to massively underrated Red Zone host Scot Hanson). Enough chit-chat, let’s get into some FREE NFL DFS Picks from Awesemo’s premium grades and values, for your daily fantasy lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft, including Julio Jones and Ezekiel Elliott!
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Don’t forget to check out On The Contrary with special guest TJ Hernandez from 4 for 4 Football joining Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker and Chris Spags to discuss the Week 11 slate.Â
NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback
This is a tough slate for quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson is a great play for cash, and just his own personal flow-chart, but he’s expensive and the pair up options for GPPs, with Marquise Brown questionable and Mark Andrews facing a stout tight end defense, aren’t tantalizing. Kyle Allen is the obvious chalk, facing a weak defense with two cheap receivers and Christian McCaffrey pairing as options, but the ownership is following and rostering him is looking more sub-optimal by the minute. You’re going to need to get creative in your Kyle Allen Stacks.
With so much great/obvious chalk on this slate, finding a low-owned quarterback-stack is crucial. According to our ownership, both Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray are projected for less than half a percent ownership. Darnold has the better matchup against a weak Washington secondary, while Murray is looking more comfortable by the day and has the rushing upside to meet value.
NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings + FantasyDraft: Grades: A, Values: A FanDuel + Yahoo: Grades: A, Values: B, C No Mohamed Sanu, no Austin Hooper and no Devonta Freeman. The loss of three cogs in this Atlanta Falcons offence should free up even more targets for Julio Jones this week. Here are his last five matchups against Panthers shadow corner James Bradberry:
- 12 catches, 300 yards, TD
- 4 catches, 60 yards
- 6 catches, 119 yards
- 5 catches, 80 yards
- 5 catches, 64 yards
- 4 catches, 28 yards, TD
A mixed bag, and, of course there’s a real possibility for Jones not meeting value here, but he’s at a great price across the industry and, with nine projected targets he’s likely not going to kill your lineups if he doesn’t go HAM. Of course, if you are worried about the matchup, both Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are viable. Gage is a fantastic punt option this week, near the bare min.
NFL DFS Picks: Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings, FanDuel: Grades: B, Values: C Yahoo, FantasyDraft: Grades: A, Values: C We’ve been waiting for the Elliott smash game for, like, 10 weeks this season, so you’re forgiven if you’ve given up hope. Earlier in the year, the knock on Elliott was that his low snap count and middling rushing attempt numbers fell short of his usual bell-cow back status. Now, the rushing attempts are back (between 20-28 over his last four), and the snap share is there (99% last week), and the only real problem is the lack of targets in the passing game.
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Fortunately, there are encouraging signs on that front: Elliott ranks fourth in the NFL in routes run over the past two weeks behind Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson and Saquon Barkley. If all three of these elements come together this week, Elliott is in line for a huge game in Detroit against the Matt Stafford-less Detroit Lions, who are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. He’s a fantastic play on Yahoo at just $34.
NFL DFS Picks: Tight Ends
Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders
DraftKings + FantasyDraft: Grades: A, Values: A FanDuel + Yahoo: Grades: A, Values: B We have another NFL DFS slate totally bereft of decent options at tight end. No Travis Kelce, no Evan Engram, no Austin Hooper, no Hunter Henry and a doubtful George Kittle. That leaves just three pay-up options on the slate: Zach Ertz’s volume is down and he’s in a tough matchup against New England Patriots, while Mark Andrews faces off against the Texans and their third-ranked DVOA against tight ends.
Cue the Darren Waller chalk. Good chalk, by the way. He’s on the opposite end of the spectrum here from Andrews and Ertz with a home date against the Cincinnati Bengals and their 31st tight end DVOA defense. Though his fantasy production has cooled of late, he’s still running the seventh-most routes in the NFL among tight ends over the past four weeks and is due for some positive touchdown regression. The Raiders have the second-highest implied total on the slate.