Week 14 of the NFL season is upon us, and we’ve only got a few more weeks of NFL football to enjoy. Fortunately, we’ve got some FREE NFL DFS Picks from Awesemo’s premium grades and values, for your daily fantasy lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and FantasyDraft, including Deshaun Watson, George Kittle and more!
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The Fantasy Football Matchups Column
Don’t forget to check out this week’s On The Contrary with Brian Hooper, aka Bric75 joining Awesemo and Chris Spags to discuss the Week 14 slate. Brian talks about his process, his projections and who he’s fading on this slate.
Slate Strategy
As of writing, Awesemo’s ownership projections currently don’t have a single player above 20% on DraftKings or FanDuel and there are no quarterbacks above 10%. That, of course means there likely aren’t any obvious value spots so far, or least, they’re not as pronounced as most weeks. Essentially that means you can take this slate anywhere you want to go. Play the best plays and don’t worry about fading the chalk (except for Ian Thomas). For more on how to approach this slate, watch the video above!
NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback
DeShaun Watson vs. Denver Broncos: Grades: A, Values: A
Since we’ve written up Matt Ryan like 14 weeks in row, it’s time to switch it up a bit, though Ryan is a great play this week as well (A,A). Watson and the Texans have the third highest implied total on the slate this week with a home matchup against the Denver Broncos on tap. Watson leads the NFL in average depth of target over the past four weeks (10.4) and his top pass catching options are all fully healthy, while the Broncos have been in the bottom third in fantasy points allowed to QB over the last half of the season.
As an added bonus, Von Miller is questionable for the Broncos and may miss tomorrow. It’s a strange thing to say about the Texans offence, but stacking with Watson is a little more difficult than it’s been in years past. Hopkins is still the preferred option but has been far less of a go-to guy. Kenny Stills is a great cheap option and Will Fuller has GPP winning upside.
Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan (A,A)
NFL DFS Picks: Running Back
Devonta Freeman vs. Carolina Panthers : Grades: B, Values: B
Unless something opens up over the next 24 hours, the lack of value on this slate means we have to search a little bit harder than usual. Freeman seems a tad underpriced with a juicy matchup against the Carolina Panthers on the schedule. Brian Hill continues to syphon snaps (26% share), which limits Freeman’s upside, but Carolina’s run defence should offset that though. The Panthers are last in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs this season, and are giving up the most runs of more than 10 yards per game in the NFL, to go along with 22 touchdowns. Freeman projects for 18-20 touches in what should be a high total, up-tempo dome game. Freeman makes for a great cash play
Honorable mention: LeSean McCoy: Grades: B, Values: B
**Note: Le’Veon Bell is officially out tomorrow’s game against the Dolphins. Bilal Powell is dirt cheap and will likely take bell-cow duties, though watch out for Ty Montgomery.
NFL DFS Picks: Â Wide Receiver
Jamison Crowder vs. Miami Dolphins: Grades: B, Values: C
Awesemo’s not loving Crowder here, but his price has final fallen across the industry after two sub-par performances with less than 20 receiving yards. Here’s to hoping recency bias wins the day, because, according to Pro Football Focus, Crowder has the best WR/CB matchup on the slate up against Miami SCB Jomal Wiltz, who allows 1.29 yards per reception. Crowder has had some solid games so far this season, but nothing with mind-blowing upside, so tread lightly in massive GPPs.
Honorable Mention: Mike Williams (B,C) is a TD regression candidate who’s seeing more volume at an excellent price around the injury. Huge GPP winning upside here.
NFL DFS Picks: Tight End
George Kittle: Grades: B, Values: B
With five or six options at the top and a bargain priced Jack Doyle, George Kittle is getting sub-10% ownership this week up against the Saints, who have been bad at defending the middle of the field this year (20th in DVOA). It feels like the 49ers were slowly working Kittle back in after knee and ankle injuries kept him out for two straight weeks, but his snaps and routes run are back on the rise. Despite the downward trend in production, Kittle is still PFF’s #1 ranked TE this year with a 94 receiving grade and he’s averaging the third most targets and route run per game. Pairing him with Jimmy Garoppolo (1-2% ownership) is a solid contrarian move for GPPs.
Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry (B,B): The middle of the Jaguars defence is banged up and wasn’t great to begin with (25th in DVOA against TEs).
Fade: Ian Thomas is a great value at the bare min, with Greg Olsen out, but his expected for around 20% ownership. That’s too much for a hit or miss option who may find himself in a time share.
Good luck everyone!
