Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL DFS season and hope you all survived Injury-geddon. There’s an insane amount of top players that are either banged up or ruled out for the season after Week 2, so make sure you’re keeping up to date on all the top injury news when you make your NFL DFS picks. Major names to keep an eye on heading into Sunday include Kenny Golladay (hamstring), who has rested two weeks in a row now and is expected to make his first start this week against Arizona. He’d potentially lift the upside of Matthew Stafford and the Detroit passing game in a potential shootout with the Cardinals. Julio Jones (hamstring) is also looking highly questionable at the moment. If he’s out, it could make it easier for the Bears to shut down Calvin Ridley as the primary receiving threat.
The 49ers’ running back and quarterback situation also needs your attention. It looks almost certain that Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert will sit this week, but that decision could go all the way up until game time. Jerick Mckinnon sits as one of the most interesting value opportunities on the slate so make sure you watch that news.
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NFL DFS PICKS Week 3
QB Dak Prescott ($7,200): Grades: A, Values: A
Quarterback ownership this week should be fairly concentrated around four or five names, but ownership shouldn’t dissuade us from targeting the Cowboys offensive players in this spot. Seattle – Dallas carries the biggest projected total of the season, opening at 56, and puts Prescott and his receivers in position for their second massive game in a row. Seattle’s displayed a traditional funnel defense thus far, allowing the fourth-fewest yards rushing and just a 3.0 yards per carry, while also ceding 424 yards per game through the air and the third-worst net yards allowed per pass attempt.
Prescott has been unreal so far in 2020, banging out an incredible 72% completion rate on 47 throws last week and adding in three rushing touchdowns. He projects with the second-best pure points projection on the main slate and with just the fourth-highest ownership. The matchup here suggests Dallas is going to need to be the team throwing all game, giving Prescott tons of upside once again for Week 3.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.2%
RB Austin Ekeler ($6,800): Grades: B, Values: B
Ekeler had a nice bounce back in Week 2, seeing four targets in the pass game while producing 148 yards on 20 touches. The performance was impressive, and while rookie Josh Kelley did step in and take a few more snaps, Ekeler’s PPR totals and overall efficiency went way up with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert at the helm. Herbert’s projected to start in Week 3 after Tyrod Taylor was diagnosed with a punctured lung, and the Chargers will be facing the Panthers, the team who has allowed the most points per game to opposing running backs this season.
The Panthers have been absolutely vaporized by opposing running backs thus far, allowing a ridiculous 11 catches last week to the Buccaneers backs and have ceded six touchdowns to the position already. Ekeler’s DraftKings salary ($6,800) may not make him a must target for cash games, but for big GPPs his sub-5% ownership projection on the Awesemo model makes him a tantalizing GPP play. He’s projected for the eighth-highest pure points total on the slate and sits just behind Miles Sanders in the projections, who is projected at four or five times the ownership. Ekeler stands out in the grading and projections this week and makes for a fine pivot play as a result.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 4.9%
WR T.Y. Hilton ($5,600): Grades: B, Values: B
Despite two slow performances to start the year, Hilton does grade out well from a pure projection standpoint this week. His DraftKings price in Week 3 ($5,600) has fallen from his Week 1 starting point, and he’ll be going up against one of the weaker secondaries in the league in the Jets. Hilton’s only converted seven of the 14 targets he’s seen from Philip Rivers thus far, but the slow start could have been much better if not for a deep touchdown drop last week that was supposedly “lost in the sun.” From a tape perspective, there’s been no indication of injury or a huge erosion of skill, so patience might be all that’s needed here before better production is seen.
Parris Campbell being out for the immediate future should also help Hilton’s usage here, and the Jets are banged up in the back end with Quincy Wilson (concussion) questionable to play, which would likely leave the slow-footed Pierre Desir on Hilton this week. Hilton grades out with the fourth-best value score this week in the Awesemo model and the second-best points projection of any wide receiver under $6,000 on DraftKings. The slow start shouldn’t dissuade you from going after him here for one more week.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.4%
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TE Darren Waller ($5,700): Grades: B, Values: B
There’s one thing we can be clear about on the Raiders for 2020, and that’s the fact that their passing game is going to be run through Waller. While there were fears Jason Witten might come in force some regression here in 2020 due to a lower target share, the exact opposite has happened thus far. Waller is second in the entire league in targets behind DeAndre Hopkins and (incredibly) has 15 more targets on the year than any other Raiders player.
The matchup here is likely the only thing scaring people off. New England has a great pass defense, but so does New Orleans, and the matchup against the hybrid Waller was too much for them to handle. Waller caught 12 passes on 14 targets last week and was near unstoppable on short and intermediate routes. He’ll have a size advantage against any corner the Patriots throw at him and should be in line for another bundle of targets given the Raiders sit as 6-point underdogs for this week, as of writing. Waller grades out with the third-best points projection of any tight end on the slate and best projection of any tight end under $6,000 in salary on Awesemo. He’s a solid mid-tier value and Flex option on DraftKings this week.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 19.8%
Contrarian DFS Stack: New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers
There are multiple games with big fantasy totals on the slate that should spread ownership, so this play probably only make sense if you’re rolling multiple lineups and want exposure to an extremely low-owned set of offensive players in a big GPP. The Giants players are all projected to carry sub-5% ownership here against a San Francisco defense that will be without its two best players in Richard Sherman and Nick Bosa. Daniel Jones has had a mediocre start to 2020 but is still rushing for over 20 yards per game and has thrown the ball 40 times or more in both starts of 2020. Evan Engram ($5,000) is projecting around 2% ownership but leads the Giants receivers in snaps played and targets.
Jones threw for four touchdowns three different times in 2019, and the 49ers are out east for the second week in a row, so fatigue may also be a factor. Bringing it back with big-play specialist Jerick McKinnon ($4,900) makes a ton of sense here too. The Giants have allowed 4.5 yards per carry thus far and have already ceded big games to plodders David Montgomery and Benny Snell. Targeting this game is a pure ownership/leverage play but one that could surprise with positive results based on the crazy amount of injuries these two teams are dealing with at the moment.
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