It is always important to find value for DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 10 NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 10
FanDuel Value Quarterback: Jalen Hurts — $7,700
Finding cheap value plays on FanDuel is often more difficult but less necessary. With their larger salary cap and overall looser pricing, one does not need to get too cheap with plays, especially at quarterback. With FanDuel being only half PPR, compared to full PPR on DraftKings, quarterbacks end up accounting for a great percentage of overall scoring.
While there are cheaper options with reasonable projections, Hurts is as cheap as one should go. Before the past two games, Hurts had scored at least 20 FanDuel Points in all 11 of his full games at quarterback. Hurts attempted only 31 passes over the past two weeks, but do not expect that to continue. Those games came against the Chargers, who rank top 10 in DVOA against the pass and dead last against the run, and a blowout victory over the Lions. Hurts will not throw a ton of passes, but his rushing upside and a more reasonable passing output give him a solid floor and ceiling in Week 10. Hurts trails only Josh Allen ($8,700) in value in Awesemo’s Week 10 projections.
DraftKings Value Quarterback: Taylor Heinicke — $5,400
Heinicke stands out on DraftKings this week. He is averaging a solid, if unspectacular, 19 DraftKings points per game as Washington’s starter this season. That is roughly the same as Matt Ryan, who costs $600 more. But the real interest in Heinicke comes from the matchup. Tampa Bay is one of the heaviest pass funnels in the league this season. Opponents are throwing the ball at a league-high 68% clip against the Buccaneers this year.
The game environment is favorable to the passing game as well. Vegas has this as one of three games with a total above 50 on the week. While most of those implied points belong to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, Washington still has a solid 21-point total. As heavy underdogs, they will also be playing catch up, leading to lots of passing. Heinicke narrowly edges out Carson Wentz ($5,900) for the top value score in Awesemo’s Week 10 DraftKings projections.
FanDuel Value Running Back: Michael Carter — $6,100
D’Ernest Johnson is the clear best value at running back on both slates, but lineups require two backs, and Carter is the better bargain on FanDuel.
As rookies often do, Carter has picked up steam heading into the back half of the season. Through the Jets first four games, he failed to top 10 FanDuel points even once. Since then he is averaging more than 15 per game. There has been a confluence of factors at play here, but co-starter Tevin Coleman being out of the lineup has certainly helped. Coleman is questionable for Week 10. Additionally, with Mike White under center, Carter has had an enormous receiving role. He drew 23 targets in the two games White played most of the way. White is expected to start for the Jets this week.
While the matchup against the Bills could not be much worse, Carter’s pass game work makes him a value at his current salary. With the exception of Johnson, Carter leads all backs under $8,000 in FanDuel salary in Awesemo’s projections.
Update: Alvin Kamara appears to be a game-time decision for the Saints. If he is unable to play, Mark Ingram ($5,500) becomes one of the best values on the slate. Ingram has little value with Kamara active, though.
DraftKings Value Running Back: D’Ernest Johnson — $4,700
Cleveland is third in the NFL in run play percentage, attempting over 30 carries per game. Generally that is through the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but both players are presumed out this week, as is Demetric Felton, who has drawn some targets out of the backfield in Hunt’s absence. Chubb and Felton are both on the COVID list with an outside chance to play on Sunday. If they do not, though, Johnson is the only running back left on Cleveland’s roster.
Johnson has been effective in limited action this season, rushing for over 5.2 yards per attempt. The matchup with New England should not scare either, as they rank 17th in DVOA against the rush. Johnson is a no-brainer this week for cash games and a solid tournament play as well. He is the leader regardless of position in value in Awesemo’s projections.
FanDuel Value Wide Receiver: Diontae Johnson — $7,400
While Johnson is not a value in the sense of being cheap, he is clearly underpriced this week. Besides, with the cheap running backs available there is room to spend more salary on receivers. Regardless, Johnson is seeing drawing absurd volume as of late. Over the last month since JuJu Smith-Schuster was injured, Johnson has picked up 46.3% of the Steelers air yards. A.J. Brown is the season leader, at 46.1%. That volume could be even further expanded upon this week, with No. 2 option Chase Claypool (17% target share without Smith-Schuster) on the wrong side of questionable to play.
Sometimes that creates a situation where a defense can focus all of their energy on the remaining player, limiting their effectiveness. That seems unlikely to happen to Johnson, though. The Steelers are taking on a Lions defense that is allowing the league’s most yards per pass attempt (8.8). Combining that level of expected efficiency with Johnson’s large and expanding role is a recipe for fantasy success. Johnson leads Awesemo’s projections for value by a wide margin on FanDuel.
Johnson is one player rating out the best in the Awesemo premium tools, and Geoff Ulrich breaks down what makes him such a strong play for Week 10 in his NFL DFS Picks from Awesemo’s Grades and Values.
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DraftKings Value Wide Receiver: James Washington — $3,500
Washington is the other potential beneficiary of Claypool’s absence and the Lions’ defensive woes. At only $3,500 on DraftKings, he could be the No. 2 receiver in the Steelers’ offense. While Johnson is the better outright value, pricing is tighter on DraftKings, so finding cheapies like Washington is more important.
Washington is yet to have a game over five targets on the season, but the Steelers are yet to have a game with both Claypool and Smith-Schuster absent from the lineup. With that said, five targets are worth over 40 yards based on the Lions yards allowed per pass attempt, so a four-catch, 40-yard line is fine at Washington’s salary. Washington leads all receivers under $4,800 in value for Awesemo’s DraftKings projections.
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