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MUST PLAY Week 15 NFL DFS Value Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups




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It is always important to find value for DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 15 NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

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Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 15

FanDuel Value Quarterback: Jalen Hurts — $7,800

This violates the “low-priced” spirit of this piece with the selection of Hurts. However, he is the top value in Awesemo’s projections for Week 15 on FanDuel. He is also significantly cheaper than the No. 2 option, Josh Allen. Hurts has been an extremely valuable fantasy asset this season and since becoming the Eagles starter in general. He has scored at least 20 FanDuel points in nine of 12 games this season, one more than Allen (in 13 games).

This week things are setting up nicely against Washington. It is also the first meeting between the teams, so there is no worry about the historical trend of reduced scoring in team’s second meetings. The Eagles have an implied team total of 26, which is top five on the slate. Additionally, Washington’s defense is strong against the run, ranking seventh in DVOA (compared to 27th against the pass). That means most of Philadelphia’s scoring should come through Hurts.

Hurts is also only $400 more on FanDuel than Tua Tagovailoa (see below), which is a small price to pay for his rushing upside. Hurts has eight touchdowns rushing on the season, and no other quarterback has more than six. He is not quite low priced this week, but he is certainly a value.

DraftKings Value Quarterback: Tua Tagovailoa — $5,700

As mentioned above, the salaries on Tagovailoa and Hurts are close on FanDuel. However, Tagovailoa is $900 cheaper on DraftKings. That extra savings make him the best value play in Awesemo’s projections on DraftKings.

Tagovailoa has an undeniably great matchup with the struggling Jets. The Jets defense ranks last in the NFL across nearly every category. The only thing that has prevented massive quarterback scores against them is the large number of blowouts they have been involved in. Most of the Jets’ opponents have been able to ride out comfortable leads through the latter portion of games.

Fortunately, that is not a big concern at Tagovailoa’s salary. He does not need a monster score to be a good value this week, just a solid one. That should be no problem with the Dolphins implied for over 25 points at home.

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FanDuel Value Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott — $6,700

Elliott is not the most comfortable of plays given how banged up he has been and the (probable) return of Tony Pollard to the Cowboys lineup. However, the price is right. He trails only James Robinson in Awesemo’s projections for value in Week 15.

Rushing volume has been down for Elliott as of late, with his usual carry count falling in the 10 to 12 range. However, he has been making up for it in the pass game. He has handled almost six targets per game since thanksgiving.

Of course, the real appeal for Elliott is the matchup with the Giants. He has historically dominated the division rival, with this year being no different. Elliott ran for 110 yards and scored two touchdowns in their first meeting. There is no reason to expect anything different this time. The Giants quarterback situation is a mess, increasing the odds that the Cowboys will play with a big lead and keep the ball on the ground. At least, that is what the oddsmakers think. Dallas is a 10.5-point favorite, and Elliott has at least 19 FanDuel points in every Cowboys win of greater than 10 points this season.

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DraftKings Value Running Back: James Robinson — $5,400

Finally free of former coach Urban Meyer, Robinson is in a perfect spot this week. For whatever reason, Meyer insisted on benching Robinson for long stretches at a time in favor of plodding veteran (and — perhaps importantly — former Buckeye) Carlos Hyde. That is not likely to be the case as interim coach Darrell Bevell looks to turn things around for the Jaguars. Robinson is the more talented player by far, so should get most of the run.

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Luckily, the Meyer firing came well after DraftKings’ Week 15 salaries were released, so Robinson is still coming at a deal. He is only $5,400 despite being a solid (5-point) favorite against the league’s 28th-ranked run defense. This is the perfect spot for Bevell to implement his trademark power run game. Robinson is far and away the best running back value in Awesemo’s projections on DraftKings in Week 15.

FanDuel Value Wide Receiver: Sterling Shepard — $5,600

Other than DeVante Parker, Shepard is the strongest value in Awesemo’s projections for under $6,800 in salary this week. Besides keeping with the intent of low-priced, Shepard is also a solid correlation play with Elliott. Game scripts that favor Elliott (big Cowboys leads) also benefit Shepard since the Giants would be chasing points and throwing the ball more.

The Giants passing attack is, of course, a mess. However, Shepard has been one of the few bright spots when healthy. In games in which he did not leave early due to an injury, Shepard has averages of nine targets and seven catches per game. There is some increased risk with Mike Glennon playing quarterback, but Glennon will have to throw the ball to somebody. Parker is certainly the better play in a vacuum, but Shepard makes a lot of sense here, particularly when paired with Elliott.

DraftKings Value Wide Receiver: DeVante Parker — $4,300

For many of the reasons to like Tagovailoa, Parker is a strong play as well. Assuming Parker is (and stays) healthy, he should feast against the Jets defense. He is averaging eight targets a game when active. He also has scored at least 9.2 DraftKings points in every game he is played with Tagovailoa. That 9.2-point performance was against the league’s best defense (Buffalo). In every non-Bills game, he has been double digits in points.

While the volume is likely to be on the lower range given the expected blowout, Parker can still get it done here. At his salary, he only needs two or three deep connections to smash. Those are a lot more likely than usual against a porous Jets defense. The correlation with Tagovailoa is also a solid boost for tournaments. Parker is the top receiver value in Awesemo’s projections on DraftKings.

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We also have single-game projections and DraftKings showdown ownership projections. View our DraftKings NFL DFS ownership rankings and our FanDuel DFS NFL ownership rankings. Take a look at our inactives, NFL depth charts and starting lineups. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL tools for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL daily fantasy football rankings, and daily fantasy football stacking.
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