It is always important to find value for your DFS lineups. What is also important is finding value with a reasonable upside, especially for tournaments. This article digs into the cheap players in the Awesemo NFL DFS projections that have the best points-per-dollar ratings. Using those projections, here are the top Week 5 NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
Best Low-Priced NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 5
FanDuel Value Quarterback – Derek Carr ($7,100) (12th in salary)
Carr is not super cheap — he is 12th among quarterbacks in FanDuel salary — but FanDuel has looser pricing, which rarely makes it necessary to scrape the bottom of the barrel. Last week against the Chargers was Carr’s first sub-300-yard game of the season, and he has thrown exactly two touchdowns in each game. The Chargers have the league’s fourth-best pass defense by DVOA. This week’s opponent, the Bears, is currently 10th. Carr is the cheapest quarterback on FanDuel whose team is implied for at least 25 points. Carr leads all quarterbacks not named Kyler Murray in Awesemo’s value projections on FanDuel. Without any clear shootouts, this is a good week to take a flier on a cheaper player.
DraftKings Value Quarterback – Mac Jones ($5,300)
Jones leads all players on DraftKings with his value projection this week. He projects to put up a season high in points against the struggling Texans. Jones has been solid this year, completing 70% of his passes; the struggle from a fantasy perspective has been the value of those completions. He is 28th among starting quarterbacks in average depth of targets (aDOT), at 7.54. However, at $5,300 in salary, “solid” is more than enough. Rostering Jones allows for paying up for receivers and running backs while maintaining a solid quarterback floor. Jones and the Patriots are implied for over 24 points this week, and a couple of those scores should come through the air. Jones is a solid — if unspectacular — play this week.
FanDuel Value Running Back – Damien Williams ($5,800)
Williams is taking over the Bears backfield for at least the next few weeks with David Montgomery injured. While it seemed likely that Montgomery would miss some time, fantasy sites released Week 5 pricing before it was announced that Montgomery would be out. Situations like this are historically valuable on FanDuel. Compared to DraftKings, backup players are generally left at lower salaries. This is an average matchup across the board for Williams. The Raiders are middle of the pack in pace, run DVOA and line yards, none of which is all that important. Williams is a clear-cut starter at a cheaper price than many backups. He should be popular this week, but he is a solid play for all contest types. He leads all running backs in Awesemo’s value projection on FanDuel.
DraftKings Value Running Back – Leonard Fournette ($5,200)
The Buccaneers backfield is frustrating for fantasy, but for Week 5 things are a bit simpler. Pass-catching back Giovani Bernard may still be out, which is a massive boost to Fournette. Ronald Jones will be Fournette’s primary competition for touches, and the Buccaneers clearly do not view Jones as a receiving back, giving him only three targets on the season. With Fournette also getting more than twice as many carries as Jones, this is quickly becoming more of a starter/backup situation than a true running back committee. Even if Bernard plays, Fournette is still the leading back in this explosive offense. The matchup against Miami is a good one; as 10-point favorites, the Buccaneers could keep it on the ground more than usual as well. Fournette leads all Flex players in DraftKings value this week, making him one of the top NFL DFS picks.
FanDuel Value Wide Receiver – Jakobi Meyers ($5,900)
If playing Jones on FanDuel for the value, it makes sense to pair him with a wide receiver. Meyers has been Jones’ favorite target this year, seeing looks on over a quarter of Jones passes. Meyers is one of only seven wide receivers to amass 40 targets already this season, and he is the only one to cost less than $7,200 on FanDuel this week. His upside is clearly lower than the rest of the group, but in terms of pure value, Meyers stands out. He would be even more valuable if he could break his scoreless streak — and a game against Houston would be a great time to do it. Meyers’ role gives him a rock-sold floor and the best receiver value projection on the slate.
DraftKings Value Wide Receiver – Curtis Samuel ($3,000)
The choice to not bump Samuel up from a minimum salary this week was a curious one by DraftKings. In Samuel’s first game back form injury, he caught four passes. They only added up to 19 yards, but it was an encouraging return for him. Samuel missed all of training camp as well, so his role should increase as he gets back up to game speed. An interesting potential boost to Samuel is the health status of running back Antonio Gibson. Gibson missed practice early in the week before returning on a limited basis on Thursday. Samuel was used as a rusher fairly often under Ron Rivera in Carolina, so it would not be surprising if he saw some carries this week with Gibson at less than full strength. Samuel leads all wide receivers in value projection by a wide margin.
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