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NFL DFS Showdown Spotlight: Week 11 Monday Night Football DraftKings & FanDuel | Giants at Buccaneers

Eric MacPherson

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For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 11 Monday Night Football slate featuring the New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 11 Monday Night Football

The big news tonight will be the status of Saquon Barkley (ankle), who has been practicing and should return after suffering a Week 5 injury. Devontae Booker (ankle) was limited in practice this week. Wide receiver Sterling Shepard (quad) is out, and tight end Kaden Smith (knee) is questionable, though he was a limited practice participant at the end of the week.

Tampa Bay is still without Antonio Brown (ankle). Defensive linemen Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder/hand) and Ndamukong Suh (knee) have been managing injuries but are expected to play tonight.

New York Giants: 19.25 Points

Quarterback

Daniel Jones finally has most of his receivers back, with Shepard being the only missing option of note. Tampa Bay has been in the top 10 in pass DVOA for most of the season and top five on the rushing front. Most opponents find it incredibly difficult to run against the front seven, which generally leads to more pass plays.

Running Back

Barkley is slated to return after missing just over a month with an ankle injury. This is a difficult first game back, as the Buccaneers generally shut down opposing running games. This has been a multi-year trend, and combined with an offense that can put points on the board, their opponents often have to take to the air. Tampa Bay has seen the fewest running back carries (17 per game) while allowing just under 80 yards rushing per game. Barkley is an all-world talent, though he has had major injuries the last couple of seasons, and it remains to be seen how this latest one will impact his effectiveness. Fortunately, he is an excellent receiver, though after such a long layoff it would be a surprise if he had more than 15 to 20 touches tonight.

Devontae Booker has been filling in admirably for Barkley. He has an ankle issue of his own, though he should be available coming off the bye. He will get the first crack at any opportunities ceded by Barkley, with Elijhaa Penny serving as a distant third-string option.

Awesemo data scientist Matt Savoca has even more on what we can expect from Barkley in his Week 11 Monday Night Football Showdown Matchup Breakdown article.

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Wide Receiver

Prior to the bye week, New York took down Las Vegas in a non-fantasy-friendly manner, 23-16. Jones attempted only 20 passes, with only five targets allocated to the wideouts. Because all of the receivers have missed time this season, it is hard to get a strong read on how things will play out. Kenny Golladay is the biggest name, though he has not had nearly the desired impact in his first season outside of Detroit. Darius Slayton has the most familiarity with Jones, though he is league average at best.

Finally, there is rookie Kadarius Toney, though the team has been incredibly conservative with him, and he has been on the sideline for significant portions of games in which he was active. New York has been very cagey with his injury reporting and has not been taking any chances in yet another lost season, though coming out of the bye week it would make sense that now is the time to take the training wheels off. John Ross and Collin Johnson are the other two receivers, with Dante Pettis on the injured reserve.

Tight End

Evan Engram will be on the field for 70-75% of the snaps while healthy. He reached pay dirt in each of the last two games, though he had just seven total targets for six receptions and 53 yards in these games. Kyle Rudolph will play on around half the snaps, and he tied a season high five targets last week. Even if healthy, Kaden Smith is not much of a contributor, with only three targets on the season.

Defense/Special Teams

The Giants have recorded just over two sacks per game, and they are league average with 1.5 takeaways. Tampa Bay is allowing 1.3 turnovers per games, and their 12 sacks allowed are the fewest in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 30.25 Points

Quarterback

Tom Brady has said in conversations that the team he enjoys beating the most is the Giants. This makes sense, as they are responsible for two of his three Super Bowl losses. The Buccaneers have lost their last two games and have never suffered the indignity of three straight losses under Brady. The Giants have been solid against the pass, ranking 11th by DVOA, though they are in the bottom three against the run. Brady is leading the league in yards passing per game with 318.9, and he is averaging three touchdowns per game. Even in his age-44 season, he is still impressive at taking whatever the defense will give him.

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Running Back

Leonard Fournette is the clear lead option, stabilizing around two-thirds of the snaps. Giovani Bernard has been in the 20-30% range now that he is healthy, and Ronald Jones has been the odd man out in the 10-20% range, though he saw the field for only one play in Week 10. It should be no surprise that Fournette has been much better against weaker competition, and this is a great matchup for him to exploit on Monday Night Football.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown is out for another week with his ankle injury, though there is a good chance that Scotty Miller will return tonight after missing six weeks with turf toe. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans lead the way, with Godwin getting the slight nod for the higher target share. Tyler Johnson will likely lose snaps if Miller returns, though he should still be on the field enough to be in play as a long shot. Jaelon Darden had only four snaps last week, but he did bring in a 50-yard touchdown. He will likely be inactive with Cyril Grayson, as Breshad Perriman is back with Tampa Bay. It has been a circuitous journey back to the Buccaneers for Perriman, who was cut by Detroit at the end of the preseason and unable to win a role with Chicago, who released him earlier this month.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski has played in one of the last six games, seeing half a dozen snaps back in Week 8. The Buccaneers have plans for another deep run in the postseason and are unlikely to risk Gronkowski to further injury. Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard have been sharing the snaps in Gronkowski’s absence, with each on the field 55-65% of the time. Either is in play for a red-zone look with Brady at the helm.

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay has been average, with nearly 2.5 sacks per game; New York is allowing them at a similar rate. The Buccaneers are top 10 in takeaways, while the Giants have done a nice job taking care of the ball, allowing just over one turnover per matchup.


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Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 11 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. Tom Brady: Oh what a world it is with Brady being the top option tonight.
  2. Daniel Jones: Needs to scramble for 40 to 50 yards and/or throw a couple of touchdowns, but that is possible.
  3. Leonard Fournette: Remember when he could not hack it in Jacksonville? There is an argument that he should get the multiplier designation, particularly on FanDuel.
  4. Chris Godwin: Can have a slate-breaking night on volume along in full-PPR; safer floor than Evans.
  5. Mike Evans: With nine touchdowns on the season; he is live for a multi-touchdown game anytime suits up.
  6. Darius Slayton: More of a DraftKings option where his $3,200 salary is helpful; just three targets in the last two games.
  7. Kadarius Toney: Could this be the game where he puts it all together and rivals his Week 5 performance against Dallas? Also returns kickoffs.
  8. Saquon Barkley: Will not play unless fully healthy, though it is hard to see him get a heavy workload after yet another injury layoff.
  9. Giovani Bernard: Another DraftKings option at $1,800; hard to see more than a handful of looks, but full-PPR scoring is his friend.
  10. Kenny Golladay: Still looking for his first touchdowns; finally healthy and coming off a bye.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. Devonte Booker: If active, should see 30-50% of the snaps depending on how much work Barkley actually gets. If he is inactive, turn to Penny for the significant savings.
  2. Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph: Engram is the top option, though Rudolph is not far behind and comes at a major discount on DraftKings.
  3. Graham Gano: New York kicks a lot of field goals with their poor red-zone offense; Gano is 10-for-12 from 50-plus since the beginning of last year.
  4. Tampa Bay D/ST: Live for a strip sack leading to a scoop and score, or even a pick-six against Jones.
  5. Ryan Succop: Just 13 field goal attempts through nine games; does not have a big leg, with just eight attempts from 50-plus in his last 47 games. Extra points can only get him so far.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. Rob Gronkowski: Even if active, hard to trust for anything other than red-zone work.
  2. O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate: Viable plays, particularly if Gronkowski is inactive for the salary cap flexibility.
  3. New York D/ST: Will need a splash play to make a ripple tonight.
  4. Ronald Jones: Perfect time for a troll touchdown; likely needs Fournette to get dinged up or a massive Buccaneers lead before he gets on the field.
  5. Tyler Johnson, Jaelon Darden, Breshad Perriman, Scotty Miller: If active, Miller is the preferred option. If he is out, then Johnson and Darden are viable. Perriman is only a lottery ticket under any scenario. Darden has supplanted Jaydon Mickens (released last month) as the main return man.
  6. John Ross, Collin Johnson, Kaden Smith: Desperation plays for the 150-lineup crew.

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Take a look at our inactive players, NFL lineups and NFL depth charts. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS advice for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacks. View our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings and our FanDuel DFS NFL rankings. We also have NFL single-game projections and showdown ownership projections.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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