For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 10 Monday Night Football slate featuring the Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 10 Monday Night Football
San Francisco will be missing JaMychal Hasty (ankle) and Mohamed Sanu (knee), along with defenders Maurice Hurst (calf), Dre Kirkpatrick (ankle) and Tavon Wilson (foot). Los Angeles lost Robert Woods (knee) on Friday, and it remains to be seen if Von Miller (ankle) will be making his Rams debut.
Matthew Stafford has been phenomenal this season, ranking third in yards passing per game with 307.9 and 23 touchdowns. While San Francisco is stout against the run, with the sixth-best run DVOA, they have been very susceptible to the pass, placing bottom third by pass DVOA. Five different quarterbacks have had multi-touchdown efforts against them, which bodes well for Stafford.
The 49ers were rolled up like a cheap rug last week by James Conner, who had 173 combined yards and three touchdowns. In the preceding seven games, they allowed six different running backs to reach 70-plus combined yards, so there is a chance that Darrell Henderson Jr. will be able find success, particularly with the defense trying to account for one of the best aerial attacks in the league. Sony Michel should see the field on 30-40% of the snaps, with 8 to 10 opportunities being a realistic expectation.
Robert Woods (knee) is out for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in practice on Friday. Two weeks ago DeSean Jackson received his release from the team as requested, though the cavalry is coming over the hill, as Odell Beckham Jr. is set to make his Rams debut tonight after getting his release from Cleveland. While gamers are going to be excited for Beckham, keep in mind that, while he did have seven touchdowns in his last 29 games, he had more than 90 yards only twice.
Heading into Week 10, Cooper Kupp was leading all receivers in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, plays of 20-plus yards, multi-touchdown games and first downs, along with the second-most yards after the catch. San Francisco will be gearing up to stop him, but the only team that has sort of slowed him down was Arizona back in Week 5.
Awesemo’s Matt Savoca also wrote about how Kupp is a slate-breaker on ANY slate, especially a Showdown slate, in his Week 10 NFL DFS Showdown Matchup Breakdown.
Van Jefferson should see an increased target share with Woods leaving behind a top-20 69 targets, 45 receptions and 556 yards, plus four touchdowns.
Ben Skowronek is the deep wide receiver play, though it is hard to give him consideration tonight unless, for some unforeseen reason, Beckham is not active. It has been reported that Skowronek will be starting in place of Woods since he knows the playbook and Beckham technically plays a different wide receiver role. However, something in line with the three targets he saw last week, which were also the first of his career, is a reasonable projection.
Tyler Higbee will likely be on the field for nearly every snap tonight, and he has accounted for 46 of the 47 targets to this position. Those 46 targets are tied with Jefferson for the third most on the team. Higbee is also active in the red zone, with at least two looks in five games this year.
This season Los Angeles is averaging 1.5 takeaways per game, while San Francisco is losing the ball nearly twice a game. The Rams are second in the league in sacks with 29, and despite being a run-first offense, the 49ers are ceding two sacks per game.
This is going to be a tough matchup for Jimmy Garoppolo, as the Rams boast the fifth-best pass DVOA. On the season only Tom Brady (432 yards, one touchdown) and Davis Mills (310 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) have topped 270 yards passing. Garoppolo has reached the 320-yard milestone in his last two games, with 322 (zero touchdowns) against Chicago and 326 (two touchdowns, one pick) against Arizona last week. However, in the four games prior to this he threw for fewer than 190 yards three times.
Los Angeles has the 14th-ranked run DVOA, and they have allowed 60-plus yards rushing to only David Montgomery (Week 1) and Chase Edmonds (Week 4). JaMychal Hasty is out, and he had played 34% of the snaps in each of the last three games. This may open the door for rookie Trey Sermon to at least be active, while fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell should be secure in his workload, seeing the majority of the snaps and backfield touches.
Kyle Juszczyk plays about half the snaps, but he has just two carries outside of Week 3, though he should see two or three targets in the passing game. Jeff Wilson Jr. is a wild card, as he is healthy but being brought along slowly by the team, and while he was active, he did not see the field last week.
Deebo Samuel is the clear lead wideout, and he has at least eight targets in every game this season. On the season he is second in yards receiving per game with 110.3 while leading the league in yards after the catch. Brandon Aiyuk has seen his snaps increase throughout the season, with a high water mark of 93% last week. Keep in mind that the 49ers are a run-first team, so they may elect to go with fewer three-receiver sets than they typically do without Sanu.
Trent Sherfield and Jauan Jennings generally see the field on 10-20% of the snaps when everyone is healthy, so they would likely slide into Sanu’s snap share. Combined there are likely to be half a dozen targets headed to the understudies, though they will likely be shared tonight. While this duo is not as exciting on FanDuel where they are near the minimum salary, on DraftKings at $200 they allow tremendous flexibility to the other five lineup slots.
George Kittle (calf) returned after missing more than a month, and he saw action on 73% of the snaps. While this was far less than his typically 90-100% snap share, it was encouraging to see. Kittle also had eight targets, which was tied with Aiyuk and one behind Samuel. In the three games he was out, Ross Dwelley had four targets and Charlie Woerner had five. Last week they combined for 18 snaps with no targets.
San Francisco is averaging just over two sacks per game, while Los Angeles has allowed only 13 on the season, which is the second fewest in the league. On the turnover front, the 49ers have only five takeaways this season, which is the second fewest in the league. The Rams are suffering only one giveaway per week on average, which is the fourth-lowest rate.
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Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 10 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Cooper Kupp: Even with everyone aware that he is getting the ball, he still is finding success.
- Matthew Stafford: Third-most yards passing per game and multiple touchdowns in seven of nine appearances.
- Deebo Samuel: Should see heavy volume.
- George Kittle: Likely to play 80-85% of the snaps and approach double-digit targets.
- Eli Mitchell: Decent value for his workload; tough matchup tonight.
- Darrell Henderson: Seven touchdowns, but he has not surpassed 90 yards rushing or 30 receiving.
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Any order could be applied to Nos. 4 to 7 on this list.
- Jeff Wilson: $1,200 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel; active but no snaps last week. Hasty being out could have him getting 6 to 8 opportunities; pay attention to the news leading up to kickoff.
- Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee: Jefferson gets the discount on DraftKings, while it is Higbee on FanDuel.
- Brandon Aiyuk: Much better salary on FanDuel ($7,500) than DraftKings ($6,600) from a lineup construction standpoint.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Ben Skowronek, Trent Sherfield and Jauan Jennings: At the $200 minimum on DraftKings; even if they post a zero, the rest of the lineup will be loaded for bear. Skowronek gets the slight nod as the starter for his team.
- Odell Beckham Jr: Needs a touchdown at his current salary, which is a tough ask in his first game with the team. It is reasonable to see him on the field for 15 to 20 snaps and still get four or five targets.
- Robbie Gould: Slight nod for homefield familiarity. Keep in mind he missed Weeks 4 to 8 with a groin injury, and he turns 39 next month.
- Matt Gay: Tonight will mark just his 33rd career game. It feels like he has been in the league more than three years.
- Sony Michel: Really needs something to happen to Henderson; well down the list when it comes to red-zone touches on his team.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Kyle Juszczyk: Ceiling is four targets.
- Los Angeles D/ST: No discount, especially when factoring in San Francisco’s preference to run the ball.
- San Francisco D/ST: Even with a favorable price tag, they are not particularly enticing tonight.
- Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley, Kendal Blanton, Trey Sermon, Travis Benjamin and Buddy Howell: Each player will likely be active, but at most they will see a combined six touches.
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Take a look at our depth charts, inactive player list and NFL starting lineups. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS picks for multiple game slates, head over to DFS NFL ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. View our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings and our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings. We also have NFL single-game projections and showdown ownership projections.
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