For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 7 Monday Night Football slate featuring the New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 7 Monday Night Football
Key players are missing from both teams tonight. New Orleans will be without Taysom Hill (concussion), running backs Dwayne Washington (neck) and Tony Jones (ankle), and wide receivers Deonte Harris (hamstring) and Michael Thomas (ankle). Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring) was designated as eligible to return from the injured reserve, though his status will not be known until the inactives list is posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. Seattle has a lot of question marks at running back with Chris Carson (neck) out. Alex Collins is dealing with a groin injury and only had a limited practice session on Saturday. Rashaad Penny is eligible to return from the injured reserve from his calf injury. Rookie receiver Dee Eskridge (concussion) is away from the team undergoing additional tests.
New Orleans Saints: 22.75
Quarterback
Rain is in the forecast for Seattle, which should not be a surprise to anyone. Fortunately, it will not be nearly as crazy as the downpours in the Bay Area last night. The Seahawks have the 24th pass DVOA, and this looks like a good matchup for Jameis Winston. This will be the first game for Winston without Taysom Hill lurking. which bodes well for his potential production. Seattle has ceded at least 300 yards passing in four of their six games, with only Carson Wentz (251) and Ben Roethlisberger (229) failing to reach that milestone.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara is easily the top fantasy option in tonight’s game. The only knock against him is that he is seeing just over four targets per game, which is two fewer than what he saw in his rookie season when he was sharing the backfield with Mark Ingram. However, Kamara is averaging 18.8 carries per game, which is six more than he has logged in any other season. Devine Ozigbo looks like he will be the backup for Kamara as the last man standing with any knowledge of the Saints offense. Lamar Miller was added to the New Orleans practice squad this week; he was last seen in the first preseason game for Washington before he was cut.
Wide Receiver
Marquez Callaway leads the receivers in targets with 21 this season, which is one fewer than Kamara. Kenny Stills is well beyond whatever prime he had, though he rounds out the starters. Ty Montgomery will likely split time between receiver and running back duties tonight given the lack of depth at both positions. Finally, Lil’Jordan Humphrey has not played an offensive snap since Week 2.
Tight End
Adam Troutman has played at least 80% of the snaps in three of his five games, including a season-high 86% last week. However, his 10 targets are one behind Juwan Johnson, who typically plays less than a quarter of the snaps yet has three touchdowns. Garrett Griffin is on the field about a third of the time, though he has yet to see a target this season.
Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans has a good defense, with 10 takeaways and eight sacks on the season. Seattle suffers three sacks per game, but they take care of the ball, with a league-low four turnovers. Geno Smith was sacked five times by the Steelers last week, and his career sack and interception rates are well above league average.
Seattle Seahawks: 18.75
Quarterback
Tonight marks the 44th game and 33rd start for Geno Smith. Last week he kept the Seahawks in the game, though he was strip-sacked by T.J. Watt in overtime, which led to a game-winning field goal for Pittsburgh. This is not going to be an easy matchup against New Orleans, who has ceded only five touchdowns passing and has eight interceptions through their first five weeks. Smith will likely top 200 yards passing and add another dozen or so on the ground, though multiple touchdowns is a lot to hope for tonight.
Running Back
Alex Collins will be good to go according to coach Pete Carroll, as the team was just being cautious while managing his groin injury. The Saints have the second-best run DVOA in the league, and they lead the league in yards per carry allowed with only 3.3. Last week Collins was solid with 20 carries for 101 yards, which was the first time a Seattle running back had reached that milestone since Week 15 in 2019. DeeJay Dallas played on one-third of the snaps, and he looks like the next best fantasy option, seeing a solid five targets last week. Travis Homer played on just five snaps, and that could even go to zero depending on what happens with Rashaad Penny.
Wide Receiver
The volume is just not going to be there to support the typical fantasy baseline expected from D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Last week they each saw seven targets, and that is a reasonable go-forward expectation with Smith at the helm. Freddie Swain worked in as the third receiver, and he had three targets while playing nearly as many snaps as his counterparts. Penny Hart and Phillip Dorsett each had a target, though combined they were only on the field for 18 plays.
Tight End
Gerald Everett was back after missing two games due to COVID-19. Clearly he is the best tight end option for Seattle, while Will Dissly is more of a blocker. Everett should see a handful of targets today, which will have him in the mix as a fantasy option.
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle is averaging just shy of two sacks per game, which is also what New Orleans is allowing with their run-first approach. Turnovers are similar as well, with each teams getting/ceding one per game. Of course, there is always the possibility of a Winston pick-six, though he has just one fumble and three interceptions on the season.
Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 7 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Alvin Kamara: Leads the team in rushing and targets with 22.
- Jameis Winston: He will not let inclement weather impede his high-octane passing style, though this is now a run-first team.
- Geno Smith: Not a sexy play, but he will not break the budget either.
- D.K. Metcalf: Can get his after the catch and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
- Alex Collins: Capable receiver but may not get more than a target or two, along with around 15 carries.
- Marquez Callaway: Just 21 targets on the season; still, he is the best wideout on New Orleans. Likely will return punts and kickoffs with Harris out.
- Kenny Stills: Bargain salary of $1,600 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel
- DeeJay Dallas: Should be in the mix for 8 to 10 opportunities with upside if Collins suffers an injury setback. Also returns kickoffs.
- Tyler Lockett: Could have his supporters smiling with just one big play; not likely to see much volume.
- New Orleans D/ST: Weather is in their favor, and Smith tends to be sacked well more than league average.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Jason Myers: Only seven field goal attempts through six games; he was perfect last year, making all 24 of his kicks.
- Saints Kicker: Wil Lutz has been out all season but may return tonight. If he cannot go, Brian Johnson will likely make his debut after Cody Parkey was injured in the last game.
- Gerald Everett: At least his role is defined; volume is the question mark.
- Tre’Quan Smith: Has yet to play this season due to a hamstring injury but is eligible to come of the injured reserve.
- Ty Montgomery: Two carries and three targets in Week 4, none in Week 5 despite playing 45% of the snaps.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Seattle D/ST: Marginal fantasy upside with their bend-don’t-break approach against a run-first team.
- Freddie Swain: In play on DraftKings at an even $2,000 for salary flexibility. Also returns punts.
- Devine Ozigbo: Looks like he will be splitting time with Montgomery when Kamara is off the field.
- Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson: Trautman is on the field a ton; Johnson has the same production in a fraction of the snaps.
- Travis Homer: Falls out of favor if Penny is activated as expected.
- Rashaad Penny: Since being selected in the first round four years ago Penny has played in 27 of 54 games, getting a grand total of 377 snaps.
- Will Dissly, Penny Hart, Colby Parkinson: Dregs of the Seattle offense.
- Garrett Griffin: Will be on the field; one career regular-season target and two in the playoffs last year.
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