After a frustrating Week 9 of NFL DFS action, we’re back in the saddle for, what looks like, a potentially explosive Week 10. The league has some prime matchups slated for us going into this weekend and we could see a bonanza of daily fantasy football scoring. The overall NFL DFS landscape is ripe, with four games drawing totals over 50 points. The Cardinals at Bills game is of particular interest for NFL DFS picks, considering the whopping 56-point game total.
The Week 10 slate is bringing with it several extreme value plays on various sites in the industry. The most egregious of these is, of course, Mike Davis, the Carolina running back who was priced before we knew he would be replacing Christian McCaffrey once again. With the entire community focusing on just a few plays from a handful of teams, there is plenty of room to stretch out and try to get different on this weekend’s slate.
Make sure to stop back first thing on Sunday morning for the Sunday update version of these groups. I will take into account all of the relevant in/out information to help build the best possible NFL DFS lineups. In addition, between when I click the button to publish this article and when the Sunday update goes live, I will run between 50,000 and 100,000 lineups to make sure that we’re exploiting the in-group projection boosts appropriately and to as much effect as possible.
Don’t miss out on Josh Engelman’s new Week 10 Top 5 NFL DFS Rankings videos for DraftKings + FanDuel lineups on our Awesemo YouTube Channel.
NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 10 – Sunday Update
Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
All of the current in/out status has been accounted for and several important changes are noted. Boosts have been created based on a series of crunches looking for optimal distributions for each team.
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least two (bumped)
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake (Q) (-50%), Chase Edmonds (-35%), Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Isabella (Drake seems likely to play which is limiting my desire to get to either of these RBs in any large distributions, our limiters cut the shares down well)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis (Feel free to drop Davis, he’s a GPP dart throw. I still think we can get away with reserving the Bills running backs for individual daily fantasy football plays rather than including them in our stacks in Week 10, despite the slight increase in target shares last week)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald (limiting to the pass catchers for the run-back but I’ll probably run a crunch or two that includes them. Andy Isabella can be dropped in for similar diversification purposes if you’re feeling frisky)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel (Christian McCaffrey will be out again for Week 10 after suffering a new injury in his return last Sunday, Mike Davis will be extremely popular given his pricing)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski (the Buccaneers are overloaded with talent, I would run versions of this without the running backs to ensure proper spread to the pass catchers. My primary focus is on the two big wide receivers, individual ownership caps should funnel the lion’s share of the ownership to them here)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: At least two
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green (+10%), Giovanni Bernard (-35%) (Joe Mixon will miss Week 10, negative projection bump to Bernard to limit shares, we were coming up with about 60% Bernard in Burrow stacks prior to the adjustment)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Conner, Chase Claypool (+10%), Diontae Johnson (+10%), JuJu Smith-Schuster (+10%), Eric Ebron
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper (-1o%), Rashard Higgins (Nick Chubb returns but is unlikely to get involved in the passing game, I still prefer limited shares of Hunt for stacks. We get a bit of both with an “at least one” setting on the stack anyway. Chubb is in play as an individual. Hooper is also expected to return for Week 10, making him interesting NFL DFS pick that might be under the radar across fantasy football, but we need to bump him down slightly to avoid over-exposure at the position)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Duke Johnson (-35%), Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins (Make sure to use the correct Johnson, we want to limit him in this role, prior to the projection shift he was coming up as the run-back play in more than half of Mayfield lineups)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock
Setting: At least one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler, Phillip Lindsay (removing Melvin Gordon on target volume for now)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor, Hunter Renfrow
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matt Stafford
Setting: At least two
Group: Marvin Jones, D’Andre Swift (-35%), T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, Marvin Hall (Kenny Golladay is out again for Week 10 action. Hall and Quintez Cephus remain no more than NFL DFS GPP dart throws. Even with a -35% bump to projections expect to get a ton of Swift in your Stafford stacks when using the “at least two.” He is a solid option this week and works with stacks, given his involvement in the passing game. Run a few crunches with him excluded from the group if you need to level out your pool)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Cam Sims (Sims added for limited shares)
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least two
Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones (-15%), Allen Lazard (Q), Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan (Allen Lazard is questionable to return from his injury, keep an eye on him approaching lock. Minor bump to Valdes-Scantling if Lazard does not go)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, Chris Conley, Tyler Eifert
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least two
Group: Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins, Duke Johnson (-35%) (David Johnson will miss Week 10, Duke Johnson will be a very popular value play, be sure to pick the correct Johnson. We’ll get to plenty of him in spite of the -35% limiter, too much without it.)
Opposing setting: At most one
Group: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins (I’ll take Chubb shares as the run-back option here)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Jake Luton
Setting: At least one (giving Luton a little leash with the “at least” this week)
Group: James Robinson, D.J. Chark (Q), Keelan Cole, Chris Conley, Tyler Eifert (Laviska Shenault will miss Week 10)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard (Q), Jamaal Williams, Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor, Hunter Renfrow (Jacobs is a find individual play but is shaky for stacks with the recent limiting of his target volume in the offense. I will run several crunches without him in this group)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon, Tim Patrick (limiting this group on the run-back side a bit. KJ Hamler and Phillip Lindsay could easily be added back for some crunches)
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least two
Group: Keenan Allen, Joshua Kelley (-35%), Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton (Austin Ekeler is out for Week 10 NFL DFS and Justin Jackson was placed on injured reserve, making this the Kelley and Kalen Ballage show on the ground. Kelley should see the bulk of the DFS-relevant work)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki (removed Matt Breida who is not expected to play)
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least two (bumped, this game has some shootout potential and I want to grab a bit more of it)
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Darrell Henderson (-25%), Josh Reynolds, Tyler Higbee (-35%) (I would swap Malcom Brown in for Henderson in some crunches, or run with both and our dual running backs limiter)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D.K. Metcalf (+10%), Tyler Lockett, David Moore, DeeJay Dallas (Chris Carson will miss this week, Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas will split running back duties)
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant (The Dolphins lost Preston Williams from this offense and Matt Breida is unlikely to play once again. I am ignoring the rest of the ground game, I prefer to focus on the passing attack when making my NFL DFS picks from this team)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Joshua Kelley, Jalen Guyton
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Drew Brees
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara (-25%), Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook (-15%), Tre’Quan Smith (feel free to skip the Kamara limiter, I wanted to reduce him from around 75% of all Brees lineups to closer to 50% of Brees lineups)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Richie James, Jordan Reed (Tevin Coleman is out again, JaMycal Hasty could see relevant shares in the backfield)
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: At least one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Wayne Gallman, Evan Engram, (Golden Tate is now questionable with a knee issue, following his apology, which followed his disciplinary benching. I’d rather just stay away from the mercurial receiver. If he goes I will include him in a limited set of crunches. The Giants placed Devontae Freeman on the IR, Wayne Gallman will likely see the bulk of the work again)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward (we’ll see how Alshon Jeffrey looks on Sunday morning)
[NFL-Content-Links]
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Carson Wentz
Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffrey, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward (Alshon Jeffrey is returning from injury to make his 2020 debut. He is a major question mark for the NFL DFS slate. His position on this list does not reflect his projection relative to teammates, be sure to pay attention to how much Jeffrey you get to)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Wayne Gallman (Tate removed)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least two
Group: James Conner, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green, Giovanni Bernard (Mixon out, Bernard in)
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least two
Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, David Moore, Greg Olsen, DeeJay Dallas (-35%) (Chris Carson is out once again continuing to frustrate daily fantasy football players of all types. Deejay Dallas and Travis Homer will split the backfield duties. Will Dissly works as an alternate TE. I added David Moore back into this group in the initial pass.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Darrell Henderson, Josh Reynolds, Tyler Higbee
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Nick Mullens
Setting: At least one
Group: Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Reed, Richie James (Deebo Samuel will miss Week 10, Dwelley out of this original group, Reed returns. JaMycal Hasty is in play for some share of the running back workload with Tevin Coleman out again)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas (+25%), Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith, Latavius Murray (adding Murray for the run-back)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least two
Group: Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette (-25%), Mike Evans, Ronald Jones (-25%), Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski (-25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Alex Smith (be sure to change this from Kyle Allen anywhere the quarterback’s injury was relevant to your fantasy football life)
Setting: At most one
Group: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Cam Sims (Inman out, Sims in)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, Marvin Hall
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? Can’t get enough daily fantasy football? We have loads of daily fantasy football articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
