Remember that episode of “The Simpsons” with the Flaming Homer Moe cocktail that Moe the bartender steals from Homer? At one point, Homer becomes so obsessed with enacting revenge on Moe that over dinner he can’t stop hearing the name Moe in everything his family says. My point is, there’s no way we’re getting through this without addressing the Taysom Hill situation, as much as we all might be sick of hearing his name on repeat across the industry this week. Hill is simply dominating all things fantasy football in Week 11 and is creating some very interesting situations for NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
As you’re likely aware — and to no one’s real surprise — the sites are handling the Hill situation in different ways. DraftKings was prepared from a positional sense, Hill is a quarterback on their site while he is outrageously listed as a tight end on FanDuel, despite his upcoming start at quarterback. There’s no going back, the slate was set before Hill was expected to get the nod as the signal-caller, but FanDuel should have exercised a modicum of foresight on this decision. Hill is also underpriced on both sites. He will be absurdly popular on DraftKings as a $4,800 quarterback. As a $4,500 tight end on FanDuel, he should arguably be in 100% of lineups. If you get Hill wrong this week, most of your other NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel just won’t matter.
The Hill situation on FanDuel also creates an interesting wrinkle for how we handle groups this week. With Hill coming in as a tight end, we can set groups with our usual stack plus opposing player model and get to two separate game stacks in every Hill lineup, we can pair him with a single skill player from his own team and no run-back, or we can run a mix of configurations. Unless this is your first week, you know the latter is my preferred option.
A final important Hill-related note, if you use the rules listed below you’ll want to add exceptions for the Saints this week for FanDuel crunches. If you don’t, leaving rules such as the “only one receiver from the same team unless paired with their quarterback” will severely limit your functional New Orleans lineups. They will be paired with a tight end for that game.
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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 11 – Sunday Update
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three (I would add an exception for the Saints here)
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team (I would add an exception for the Saints here)
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
The update is in, all of the news up to this morning has been accounted for but keep an eye for any additional changes. On the FanDuel front, I can take or leave many of the TE options listed whose names are not Taysom Hill.
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least two (Depending on what you’re looking for, you might want to lower this to an “at least one” so you are not getting too much weight in this game with the double-dip in lineups when Taysom Hill lands in the opposing tight end slot)
Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley (-25%), Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage
Opposing Setting: At least one (On FanDuel, I will consider crunches with this as an “at least two” to push constructions will Hill and a pass catcher coming back, fully capturing both sides of this game, though I believe that will be a popular build for people making their NFL DFS picks using Hill and Ryan as a starting point)
Group: Taysom Hill (FanDuel), Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At most one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Willie Snead, Mark Ingram (adding Ingram to the Ravens equation. Devin Duvernay could mix in but does not see a ton of volume)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry (-15%), A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (-15%)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater (Q) (P.J. Walker will start if Bridgewater is unable to go. The quarterback has been dealing with injuries but he was trending toward playing in Week 11 of NFL DFS as of late Saturday, keep an eye on this one for any changes.)
Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore (+10%), Curtis Samuel (Christian McCaffrey will be out again for Week 11)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Marvin Jones (+15%), Marvin Hall (+15%), Â T.J. Hockenson (-15%), Adrian Peterson (-25%), Kerryon Johnson (-15%)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: At least two (I will definitely run versions with this at one)
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard (-15%) (Joe Mixon will miss Week 11 fantasy football)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic, Cam Sims (apply minor down-bumps to the running backs if you are getting them too frequently, this will likely depend on how much randomness you are using)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins (Nick Chubb remains a player unlikely to get involved in the passing game. As such, Chubb is in play as an individual more than in stacks for Week 11 NFL DFS)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders (-15%), Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward (Alshon Jeffrey removed on projection and role, we can run some sets with him included)
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Andy Dalton (Dalton is expected back from a concussion and COVID-19, be sure to update any saved groups)
Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott (+15%), Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup +15%), Dalton Schultz (We don’t get a ton of Elliott with this group because the run-back Cook play, you can bump Elliott further or remove Cook from the opposing group to open this up for some crunches)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock
Setting: At least one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler (I’m keeping both Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon out on target volume for now and just focusing on the pass-catchers. Hamler led the Broncos in Week 10 with 10 targets, though he only caught four balls)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matt Stafford (Stafford is fully expected to play)
Setting: At least one (lowered)
Group: Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Marvin Hall, Quintez Cephus (Kenny Golladay is out again for Week 11 action. He will be joined by D’Andre Swift and Danny Amendola, taking a few key weapons away from this Lions offense. Adrian Peterson should be the featured back for Detroit and could be in play on DraftKings and FanDuel, though Kerryon Johnson projects similarly)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore (+10%), Curtis Samuel
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least two
Group: Davante Adams (Q), Aaron Jones (-15%), Allen Lazard, Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan (Adams is by all accounts ready to roll on Sunday morning)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least two
Group: Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins, Duke Johnson
Opposing setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Jake Luton
Setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert (Laviska Shenault removed, he will miss Week 11)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron (I’m dropping James Conner as a run-back given his recent downside production. For crunches where he is included I will probably apply a -25% downgrade in-group)
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Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least two
Group: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton, Kalen Ballage (-35%) (With injuries to key running backs, this continues to be all about Joshua Kelley and Kalen Ballage in the rushing game. Ballage has pulled ahead in Awesemo’s projections.)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, Salvon Ahmed
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Duke Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Taysom Hill (Drew Brees is out, Hill appears to be getting the nod over Jameis Winston. Hill’s price and positional eligibility are the key factors on DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 11 NFL DFS)
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas (+15%), Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders (+15%), Deonte Harris (+15%) (Harris added. With Hill at tight end on FanDuel there is no real need for Jared Cook, include him on DraftKings. It is important to be aware of how much Hill you will be getting on FanDuel, and that he will bring along skill players and a skill player from the Falcons if this group is always enabled. This could either force you down a very specific lane of constructions, given the pricing of the skill players in this game. It could also result in getting lineups that are more focused on only two games than you intended. For example, if you get a Cam Newton lineup that includes Hill as a tight end, you are likely to get Michael Thomas and one of Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones along with him, on top of the skill players that Newton will bring along from his game. If you want to get to stacks from other games in lineups featuring Hill at the tight end, but without any of his correlated skill players, I would run the crunch with this group disabled. This would not be my preferred approach to the build)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage (If you want to get cute about things with the blown-out game stack in you can add Matt Ryan to this group for a few crunches)
New York Jets
Key Player: Joe Flacco
Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Keenan Allen, Kalen Ballage, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry
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Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Carson Wentz
Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward (Alshon Jeffrey is back from injury but likely to remain limited, he is not going to be among my leading NFL DFS picks)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least two
Group:Â Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron (James Conner can come and go in versions of this group, I’m using a -35% limiter on him in-group)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson (-50%), D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole (Laviska Shenault removed, he will miss Week 11)
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (Derrick Henry should come up individually without forcing him into stacks)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Ingram
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Alex Smith
Setting: At most one
Group: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Cam Sims
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Giovani Bernard, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green
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