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DraftKings

NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think | Week 11 Fantasy Lineup Constructions – Sunday Update

Terry McBride

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NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel week 13 contrarian dfs picks

Remember that episode of “The Simpsons” with the Flaming Homer Moe cocktail that Moe the bartender steals from Homer? At one point, Homer becomes so obsessed with enacting revenge on Moe that over dinner he can’t stop hearing the name Moe in everything his family says. My point is, there’s no way we’re getting through this without addressing the Taysom Hill situation, as much as we all might be sick of hearing his name on repeat across the industry this week. Hill is simply dominating all things fantasy football in Week 11 and is creating some very interesting situations for NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.

As you’re likely aware — and to no one’s real surprise — the sites are handling the Hill situation in different ways. DraftKings was prepared from a positional sense, Hill is a quarterback on their site while he is outrageously listed as a tight end on FanDuel, despite his upcoming start at quarterback. There’s no going back, the slate was set before Hill was expected to get the nod as the signal-caller, but FanDuel should have exercised a modicum of foresight on this decision. Hill is also underpriced on both sites. He will be absurdly popular on DraftKings as a $4,800 quarterback. As a $4,500 tight end on FanDuel, he should arguably be in 100% of lineups. If you get Hill wrong this week, most of your other NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel just won’t matter.

The Hill situation on FanDuel also creates an interesting wrinkle for how we handle groups this week. With Hill coming in as a tight end, we can set groups with our usual stack plus opposing player model and get to two separate game stacks in every Hill lineup, we can pair him with a single skill player from his own team and no run-back, or we can run a mix of configurations. Unless this is your first week, you know the latter is my preferred option.

A final important Hill-related note, if you use the rules listed below you’ll want to add exceptions for the Saints this week for FanDuel crunches. If you don’t, leaving rules such as the “only one receiver from the same team unless paired with their quarterback” will severely limit your functional New Orleans lineups. They will be paired with a tight end for that game.


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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 11 – Sunday Update

DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)

Limit Rules: 

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three (I would add an exception for the Saints here)

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team (I would add an exception for the Saints here)

Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)

Construction: 

Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.

Sunday Update:

The update is in, all of the news up to this morning has been accounted for but keep an eye for any additional changes. On the FanDuel front, I can take or leave many of the TE options listed whose names are not Taysom Hill.


NFL DFS Team Groups:

Atlanta Falcons

Key Player: Matt Ryan

Setting: At least two (Depending on what you’re looking for, you might want to lower this to an “at least one” so you are not getting too much weight in this game with the double-dip in lineups when Taysom Hill lands in the opposing tight end slot)

Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley (-25%), Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage

Opposing Setting: At least one (On FanDuel, I will consider crunches with this as an “at least two” to push constructions will Hill and a pass catcher coming back, fully capturing both sides of this game, though I believe that will be a popular build for people making their NFL DFS picks using Hill and Ryan as a starting point)

Group: Taysom Hill (FanDuel), Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook

Baltimore Ravens

Key Player: Lamar Jackson

Setting: At most one

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Willie Snead, Mark Ingram (adding Ingram to the Ravens equation. Devin Duvernay could mix in but does not see a ton of volume)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Derrick Henry (-15%), A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (-15%)

Carolina Panthers

Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater  (Q) (P.J. Walker will start if Bridgewater is unable to go. The quarterback has been dealing with injuries but he was trending toward playing in Week 11 of NFL DFS as of late Saturday, keep an eye on this one for any changes.)

Setting: At least one

Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore (+10%), Curtis Samuel (Christian McCaffrey will be out again for Week 11)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Marvin Jones (+15%), Marvin Hall (+15%),  T.J. Hockenson (-15%), Adrian Peterson (-25%), Kerryon Johnson (-15%)

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Player: Joe Burrow

Setting: At least two (I will definitely run versions with this at one)

Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard (-15%) (Joe Mixon will miss Week 11 fantasy football)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic, Cam Sims (apply minor down-bumps to the running backs if you are getting them too frequently, this will likely depend on how much randomness you are using)

Cleveland Browns

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: At least one

Group: Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin HooperRashard Higgins (Nick Chubb remains a player unlikely to get involved in the passing game. As such, Chubb is in play as an individual more than in stacks for Week 11 NFL DFS)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Miles Sanders (-15%), Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward (Alshon Jeffrey removed on projection and role, we can run some sets with him included)

Dallas Cowboys

Key Player: Andy Dalton (Dalton is expected back from a concussion and COVID-19, be sure to update any saved groups)

Setting: At least one

Group: Ezekiel Elliott (+15%), Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup +15%), Dalton Schultz (We don’t get a ton of Elliott with this group because the run-back Cook play, you can bump Elliott further or remove Cook from the opposing group to open this up for some crunches)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen

Denver Broncos

Key Player: Drew Lock

Setting: At least one

Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler (I’m keeping both Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon out on target volume for now and just focusing on the pass-catchers. Hamler led the Broncos in Week 10 with 10 targets, though he only caught four balls)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki

Detroit Lions

Key Player: Matt Stafford (Stafford is fully expected to play)

Setting: At least one (lowered)

Group: Marvin Jones, T.J. HockensonMarvin Hall, Quintez Cephus (Kenny Golladay is out again for Week 11 action. He will be joined by D’Andre Swift and Danny Amendola, taking a few key weapons away from this Lions offense. Adrian Peterson should be the featured back for Detroit and could be in play on DraftKings and FanDuel, though Kerryon Johnson projects similarly)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore (+10%), Curtis Samuel

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Green Bay Packers

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: At least two

Group: Davante Adams (Q), Aaron Jones (-15%), Allen Lazard, Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan (Adams is by all accounts ready to roll on Sunday morning)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal

Houston Texans

Key Player: Deshaun Watson

Setting: At least two

Group: Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins, Duke Johnson

Opposing setting: At most one

Group: Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry

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Indianapolis Colts

Key Player: Phillip Rivers

Setting: At least one

Group: Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard, Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Player: Jake Luton

Setting: At most one

Group: James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert (Laviska Shenault removed, he will miss Week 11)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron (I’m dropping James Conner as a run-back given his recent downside production. For crunches where he is included I will probably apply a -25% downgrade in-group)


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Los Angeles Chargers

Key Player: Justin Herbert

Setting: At least two

Group: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton, Kalen Ballage (-35%) (With injuries to key running backs, this continues to be all about Joshua Kelley and Kalen Ballage in the rushing game. Ballage has pulled ahead in Awesemo’s projections.)

Opposing Setting: At most one

Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman

Miami Dolphins

Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa

Setting: At least one

Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, Salvon Ahmed

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler

Minnesota Vikings

Key Player: Kirk Cousins

Setting: At least one

Group: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Alexander Mattison

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz

New England Patriots

Key Player: Cam Newton

Setting: At most one

Group: Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Duke Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb

New Orleans Saints

Key Player: Taysom Hill (Drew Brees is out, Hill appears to be getting the nod over Jameis Winston. Hill’s price and positional eligibility are the key factors on DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 11 NFL DFS)

Setting: At least one

Group: Michael Thomas (+15%), Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders (+15%), Deonte Harris (+15%) (Harris added. With Hill at tight end on FanDuel there is no real need for Jared Cook, include him on DraftKings. It is important to be aware of how much Hill you will be getting on FanDuel, and that he will bring along skill players and a skill player from the Falcons if this group is always enabled. This could either force you down a very specific lane of constructions, given the pricing of the skill players in this game. It could also result in getting lineups that are more focused on only two games than you intended. For example, if you get a Cam Newton lineup that includes Hill as a tight end, you are likely to get Michael Thomas and one of Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones along with him, on top of the skill players that Newton will bring along from his game. If you want to get to stacks from other games in lineups featuring Hill at the tight end, but without any of his correlated skill players, I would run the crunch with this group disabled. This would not be my preferred approach to the build)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage (If you want to get cute about things with the blown-out game stack in you can add Matt Ryan to this group for a few crunches)

New York Jets

Key Player: Joe Flacco

Setting: At most one

Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Keenan Allen, Kalen Ballage, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry



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Philadelphia Eagles

Key Player: Carson Wentz

Setting: At least one

Group: Miles Sanders, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward (Alshon Jeffrey is back from injury but likely to remain limited, he is not going to be among my leading NFL DFS picks)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins

Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger

Setting: At least two

Group: Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron (James Conner can come and go in versions of this group, I’m using a -35% limiter on him in-group)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: James Robinson (-50%), D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole (Laviska Shenault removed, he will miss Week 11)

Tennessee Titans

Key Player: Ryan Tannehill

Setting: At least one

Group: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (Derrick Henry should come up individually without forcing him into stacks)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Ingram

Washington Football Team

Key Player: Alex Smith

Setting: At most one

Group: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Cam Sims

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Giovani Bernard, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green


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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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