The theme of the first cut at NFL DFS Week 5 is: Changes. The NFL has announced some schedule shuffling, with the Buffalo at Tennessee and Denver at New England games shifting dates, changing the Main Slate from 12 to 10 games. (Update: The Jets game that was originally mentioned here will play). It should go without saying that this will be a busy week for our NewsGod. We also got a massive update in Fantasy Cruncher, the primary optimizer that I use and focus on for these groups.
The new groups features that have been added are going to require you to rebuild the individual core team groups that we saved in Week One and have been revising week to week with any changes. Fortunately, the auto-build feature is free through this weekend, so that should be easy enough for everyone. Fantasy Cruncher Pro users will be able to utilize it at any time, as always. Be sure to save the new groups for future use, as with the previous version, I think the best approach is to create the opposing run-back groups separately week to week for tighter control.
Speaking of control, one of the major new features is the ability to bump player projections based on the utilization of key players. This enables us to greatly refine the wide receiver combinations that we’re getting to with quarterbacks, for example. In a lot of cases, disproportionate numbers of value plays can come up based simply on the way optimizers function. We can push this into delivering the appropriate amounts of wide receiver one, two, and so on by skewing projections to increase or decrease exposure within the eventual stack results. After I’ve had some time to make sure everything works how I think it will, we can look at layering in multiple tiers of control to reflect correlation between various skill players.
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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 5
Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
Numerous changes throughout the various lineups with the news we have so far. Be sure to stay on top of any news that impacts your groups as we crash into lock. For this week I am not making specific recommendations for projection bumps, I want to use them for a week to be sure (there’s a chance I update this later Sunday morning after running some crunches).
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player:Â Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Dan Arnold, Christian Kirk, Chase Edmonds, Andy Isabella (Added Isabella on projection; Edmonds soaking up targets out of the backfield, might be more DraftKings focused for full PPR. We should get enough Drake without adding him but you can and then bump the setting to two)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Le’Veon Bell, Jeff Smith, Chris Hogan, Chris Herndon (Added Bell and Smith, removed Perriman who is out)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least two
Group: Julio Jones (D), Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Olamide Zaccheaus (Julio is unlikely to play, Zaccheaus saw nine targets in his absence last week and makes the group on that volume, if Julio plays I would remove Zaccheaus)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player:Â Lamar Jackson
Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Boykin, Willie Snead
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, AJ Green, Tee Higgins, Drew Sample (accidentally deleted Boyd on the first cut, make sure he’s in your group)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player:Â Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least two (bumped up)
Group: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, Mike Davis
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Julio Jones (D), Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Todd Gurley, Olamide Zaccheaus (no Zaccheaus if Julio Jones plays)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player:Â Joe Burrow
Setting: At least two
Group: A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Drew Sample
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Miles Boykin, Mark Ingram (Added Ingram. Removed Snead, not enough volume for the run-back for me. We primarily want Andrews or Brown for NFL DFS, this is a spot where the new “bump projection if” function will come in very handy. Feel free to add the back of your choice from the three-headed monster, I don’t see reliable volume for any of the backs)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player:Â Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least two
Group: Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player:Â Dak Prescott
Setting: At least two
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Darius Slayton, Devonta Freeman, Evan Engram, Golden Tate
Houston Texans
Key Player:Â Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least two
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins, Kenny Stills, Duke Johnson
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player:Â Philip Rivers
Setting: At least one (lowered on passing volume though with a mid-range game total I will likely run some with a setting of two)
Group: T.Y. Hilton, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton, Marcus Johnson (Johnson added on Awesemo’s projection, be aware of your exposures for NFL DFS purposes)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper
Related NFL DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — Week 5 First Look: NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
- DraftKings NFL Lineup Review: Week 4
- First Look: Week 5 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
- NFL DFS Week 4 DraftKings Millionaire Maker Lineup Review and Strategy
 Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player:Â Gardner Minshew
Setting: At least two (bumped up)
Group: James Robinson, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert, Chris Conley
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least two
Group: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player:Â Derek Carr
Setting: At least two
Group: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor (Bryan Edwards out, Agholor in)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player:Â Jared Goff
Setting: At least one (lowered on passing game volume)
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Malcom Brown, Josh Reynolds
Opposing Group: At most one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Dontrelle Inman, JD McKissic, Isaiah Wright
Miami Dolphins
Key Player:Â Ryan Fitzpatrick
Setting: At least two
Group: DeVante Parker, Isaiah Ford, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin, Jakeem Grant
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, Jerrick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne
New York Giants
Key Player:Â Daniel Jones
Setting: At least two
Group: Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, Devonta Freeman, Damion Ratley
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliot, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
New York Jets
Key Player: Joe Flacco (note: Change this from Sam Darnold)
Setting: At least one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Le’Veon Bell, Chris Herndon, Chris Hogan, Jeff Smith (Perriman out and removed, Bell and Smith added, feel free to add Braxton Berrios, I don’t think I need him here)
Opposing setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Dan Arnold, Chase Edmonds, Andy Isabella (Edmonds and Isabella added, mind the exposures)
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Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Carson Wentz
Setting: At least two
Group: Zach Ertz, Greg Ward, Miles Sanders, John Hightower (Alshon Jeffrey remains out for Week Five NFL DFS action)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Conner, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron, James Washington
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least two
Group: James Conner, Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron, James Washington, Chase Claypool
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Zach Ertz, Greg Ward, Miles Sanders, John Hightower
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo
Setting: At least one
Group: George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, Jerrick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Mike Gesicki, Isaiah Ford, Preston Williams,
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Kyle Allen (change this from Dwayne Haskins, it’s always best in NFL DFS to play the guy actually starting the game)
Setting: At least one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Dontrelle Inman, Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic, Isaiah Wright
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Malcom Brown, Josh Reynolds
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