OK, seriously, how is it Week Six already? Time is weird and malleable in 2020 and the NFL DFS season is flying by while life itself is crawling. With five weeks in the books, we have a fair idea of how some of these teams are playing this season, we’ve seen some massive changes and we’ve suffered some tragic injuries, there’s just a lot to keep track of. Be sure to tune in for shows or download the podcasts every day, keep up with the NewsGod for the latest breaking and check back here for the Sunday Update to these groups.
By the time I run the Sunday Update I will add some projection boost +/- data to some of these groups to take advantage of the new settings that Fantasy Cruncher provides. I assume other optimizers can do similar things, though Cruncher remains the class of the industry for my money. Hopefully that plug will help my karma and my groups will save on Saturday night so I don’t have to scramble on Sunday.
As you set your groups, it’s important to make sure that you’re also using the rules and limiters that are laid out below. If you aren’t, you will still get quality lineups, but you will be open to getting over-exposed to certain players and combinations based on pricing and a lack of limiters. Everything will come together properly with the combination of the rules and groups. Be aware of the difference between “at least” and “at most” as well, they are deliberately different across the slate.
It is also important to remember that these are guidelines and there are no right and wrong answers for this aspect of NFL DFS. You should be changing these groups and the combinations of settings to get a wide range of lineup constructions and capture different possible outcomes. At the same time, be sure to utilize the individual player ownership caps to ensure you are not over-exposed to all of the less-than-likely inexpensive options.
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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 6
Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
Groups have been updated with news through early Sunday morning. After running something like 50,000 lineups through Cruncher, I’ve added notes with any +/- suggestions for projection boost tools. I would also recommend using the Top Stacks Tool alongside your optimizer to ensure you’re building toward the best NFL DFS options on the slate.
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least two
Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst (no boosts needed, distributions look about right with baseline projections)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Adam Thielen +20%, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson +25% (Initial crunches were coming up with mostly Mattison, bumping the receiver projections levels all three exposures to around 50% each across resulting Ryan lineups)
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player:Â Lamar Jackson
Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, J.K. Dobbins, (Apply 25% bumps to get to small shares of anyone not named Andrews or Brown here. You might have to go higher on Dobbins if you want to get him, I’m getting zero shares in stacks. I can take or leave Miles Boykin, Willie Snead, and Devin Duvernay. This passing attack is largely focused on Andrews and Brown, limiting your shares of these remaining three receivers will be critical if you leave them in the group. Boykin and Snead each saw two targets in Week Five, while Duvernay got three, I am fine with eliminating them from the group entirely)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders, Travis Fulgham, Zach Ertz, Greg Ward +25% (base projections were getting plenty of the first three, the boost will add just a dash of Ward to the mix)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player:Â Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one (lowered)
Group: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel +15%, Mike Davis +15% (I wanted more Davis than I was getting, use that bump at your discretion. I was barely getting any Samuel and wanted to mix him in a little more. I removed Ian Thomas based on projection, feel free to include him, he feels unnecessary at the position this week)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Montgomery -15%, Allen Robinson, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller (I was getting Montgomery in 75% of Panthers stacks, so we’re reducing that here. Bump Mooney or Miller by 25% if you want to get to them. I will probably add Cordarrelle Patterson for a few runs in the optimizer as well, limiting the amount of him that ultimately makes it into entries of course)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Nick Foles (double-check that you don’t still have Trubisky keyed if you’re using old NFL DFS groups)
Setting: At least two
Group: David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, Cordarrelle Patterson
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player:Â Joe Burrow
Setting: At least two
Group: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins +25%, Drew Sample, A.J. Green (I want more Higgins than we’re getting naturally)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton +25%, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal (I wanted slightly more Hilton, this boost carves up the distribution between Taylor and the wideout properly)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player:Â Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least one (lowered)
Group: Odell Beckham +10%, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry +15%, Austin Hooper -15% (I was getting an overwhelming amount of Hooper and verty limited Landry initially, these changes provide more balance and favor Beckham overall)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Conner -20%, JuJu Smith-Schuster +35%, Chase Claypool, James Washington, Eric Ebron -15% (without these bumps we get a ton of Conner as the primary player coming back and very little Smith-Schuster, which isn’t necessarily wrong but I prefer the broader mix)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock (make sure to set this back to Lock if you’re using a saved group)
Setting: At least one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Phillip Lindsay, DaSean Hamilton (Hamilton added. Noah Fant removed, he’ll miss the game with an injury. Melvin Gordon removed, he’ll miss the game after his off-field incident)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Julian Edelman, Damiere Byrd, James White, N’Keal Harry, Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris (be careful with individual exposures and be sure dual-RB limiters are tight or you could see lineups with doubled-up low-cost OK projected backs from this team outside of the group restriction)
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matt Stafford
Setting: At least two
Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., T.J. Hockenson -15%, Danny Amendola, D’Andre Swift (We were getting slightly too much Hockenson and not enough of the wideouts before the -15% change. I plan to keep a tight individual cap on Swift’s exposure)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson, DJ Chark +15%, Laviska Shenault +15%, Keelan Cole +15% (This gives us a fair share of Robinson as well as with a mix of the primary receivers coming back)
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least two
Group: DaVante Adams, Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Robert Tonyan -15% (we were getting slightly too much Tonyan)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski (feel free to add Leonard Fournette to a few crunches here, I don’t find him particularly mandatory)
Houston Texans
Key Player:Â Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least two
Group: David Johnson -15%, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, Duke Johnson (Minor bump down to reduce the David Johnson pairings. Jordan Akins removed, he’ll miss another week. I want extremely limited shares of Stills and Duke Johnson here, feel free to remove them entirely)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Jonnu Smith, Adam Humphries, Kalif Raymond (added Raymond on projection)
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player:Â Philip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: T.Y. Hilton, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal (Trey Burton and Marcus Johnson can come and go in this group in various runs of your optimizer, there just hasn’t been much to the Colts’ passing game so far this season)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins +25%, Joe Mixon, Drew Sample, AJ Green
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 Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player:Â Gardner Minshew
Setting: At least two
Group: James Robinson -15%, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert -15% (Minor negative bumps to limit Robinson from 85% to closer to 50% of Minshew stacks and to cut Eifert)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kenny Golladay, Adrian Peterson, Marvin Jones Jr., TJ Hockenson, Danny Amendola, D’Andre Swift
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Setting: At least two
Group: DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin -10%, Mike Gesicki -15%, Preston Williams +15%, Isaiah Ford +15%
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith, Chris Herndon (I don’t think we need to force a Jets value running back dart throw here)
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Adam Thielen, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson (Add your choice of Irv Smith or Kyle Rudolph at Tight End if you’re feeling frisky, I don’t want much of either)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley +15%, Julio Jones +15%, Todd Gurley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst (The boosts get us slightly more of the wideouts and less Hurst)
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At least one
Group: Julian Edelman, Damiere Byrd, James White, N’Keal Harry, Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris (Again, be sure to properly limit the exposures to Patriots running backs across NFL DFS this week)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Phillip Lindsay (trimmed to relevant active players)
New York Giants
Key Player:Â Daniel Jones
Setting: At least one
Group: Darius Slayton +25%, Devonta Freeman +25%, Golden Tate +25%, Evan Engram
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, JD McKissic, Dontrelle Inman, Isaiah Wright (Wright added, I’ll be limiting shares of him and Inman)
New York Jets
Key Player: Joe Flacco
Setting: At least one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith, Chris Herndon (any Jets running back value should take care of itself here)
Opposing setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Mike Gesicki, Preston Williams, Isaiah Ford
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Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Carson Wentz
Setting: At least one (lowered)
Group: Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz, Travis Fulgham, Greg Ward, John Hightower (Alshon Jeffrey remains out for Week Six NFL DFS action)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least two
Group: James Conner -25%, JuJu Smith-Schuster +25%, Chase Claypool, James Washington, Eric Ebron -15% (More JuJu and normalizing shares of Conner and Ebron)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Odell Beckham +25%, Kareem Hunt -15%, Jarvis Landry +25%, Austin Hooper
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least two
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan (I don’t hate adding Jamaal Williams to this group)
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one (I’m leaving this at one and taking Henry shares as they come, feel free to bump to two but then be sure to limit overexposing Henry shares and tripling up on this offense)
Group: A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Adam Humphries +15%, Kalif Raymond +15%
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, (removed Duke and Akins)
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Kyle Allen (I prefer getting to individual shares of the skill players instead of the stack for this team for NFL DFS purposes in general)
Setting: At least one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Dontrelle Inman, Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic, Isaiah Wright
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Darius Slayton, Devonta Freeman, Golden Tate, Evan Engram
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Love the article! Was wondering if there is a way to get the groups to save? Example: I set up all these groups last night (Friday). Woke up this morning and my Limit and Stack rules are the same on FC, but the Groups have disappeared. That’s a lot of work to go back and duplicate.