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NFL

NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think | Week 7 Fantasy Lineup Constructions – Sunday Update

Terry McBride

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With other sports winding down, the fantasy sports world will be squarely focused on NFL DFS over the coming weeks, as the season reaches its midway point. By now we know some things are true about this season. The NFC East is a disaster. New York Football is in shambles until you get west of Interstate-390. This crop of rookie quarterbacks looks special. The league has seen an overall uptick in offense and a downturn in holding calls. Injuries are abundant and unpredictable. The turf at Met Life Stadium is uninsurable.

Some of these are actionable items for NFL DFS and are accounted for across the site in projections and analysis. Make sure to read through the game by game breakdowns, check out the shows and just consume as much content as we can churn out during the week. Information is king in NFL DFS, with a sharp public we need to be on top of every possible angle. The Sunday update is in, as are the boost recommendations and any in/outs or injury updates as they currently stand.

Be sure to monitor your results as you go, particularly if you add the boosts. I focus primarily on FanDuel for my NFL DFS constructions, but I will be sure to run DraftKings crunches and post any differences. Your outcomes will vary if you use different projections or run your optimizer based on something other than Awesemo’s published projection set.



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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 7 – Sunday Update

Stack Rules:

QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)

QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)

Limit Rules: 

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three

Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team

Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)

Construction: 

Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.

Sunday Update:

Lots of injuries are accounted for in the updated groups. Boosts have been added and will be tweaked as I run additional crunches.


NFL DFS Team Groups:

Arizona Cardinals

Key Player: Kyler Murray

Setting: At least two

Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake (-25%) (Hopkins is on track to play. I can take or leave Kenyan Drake as part of the stack, we should get him in some crunches anyway. If you’re feeling adventurous Andy Isabella can be added here. Our RB limiter will prevent the dual back builds across the NFL DFS slate)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Chris Carson (+10% if you want some contrarian Carson), Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Greg Olsen

Atlanta Falcons

Key Player: Matt Ryan

Setting: At least two

Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley (-5%), Russell Gage (-10%), Hayden Hurst

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Kenny Golladay, D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones (+15%), T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola

Buffalo Bills

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Devin Singletary (Tyler Kroft should see most of the TE action here, but he seems unnecessary)

Opposing Setting: At most one

Group: Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith, Denzel Mims, Braxton Berrios (Jamison Crowder out and removed, Mims and Berrios added, I’m not excited about anything from the Jets offense)

Carolina Panthers

Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater

Setting: At least one

Group: D.J. MooreRobby Anderson, Mike Davis (+15%) (Curtis Samuel removed, he is unlikely to play, Seth Roberts could see a few additional looks, I would sprinkle him in for some versions of this group. We should see a fair amount of lineups with one of the receivers plus Davis anyway, be sure to monitor your overall exposures)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Alvin Kamara (-25% – only on the run-back spot, not in the stack), Jared Cook (-15%), Tre’Quan Smith, Latavius Murray, Deonte Harris (Michael Thomas will not play due to lingering leg injuries)

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Player: Joe Burrow

Setting: At least two

Group: Giovani Bernard, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins (+15%), A.J. Green (+25%), Drew Sample (Joe Mixon is out, Bernard is already involved in the passing game and will see an increased workload, he should be popular yet justifiable for most NFL DFS formats)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Kareem Hunt (-10%), Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry (+10%), David Njoku

Cleveland Browns

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: At least one

Group: Odell Beckham, Kareem HuntJarvis Landry, David Njoku, Rashard Higgins (Njoku back, Hooper out. Higgins added here as a bit of a dice roll receiver, be sure to limit exposure to him)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green (+10%), Giovani Bernard, Drew Sample

Dallas Cowboys

Key Player: Andy Dalton

Setting: At least one

Group: Ezekiel Elliott (+10%), Amari Cooper (+25%), CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz

Opposing Setting: At most one

Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas

Denver Broncos

Key Player: Drew Lock

Setting: At most one

Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (Sammy Watkins out. Use Le’Veon Bell at your own risk, we can mix and match shares of him, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, though they play better as parts of the KC stack instead of in a run-back role)

Detroit Lions

Key Player: Matt Stafford

Setting: At least two

Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones (+15%), T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, D’Andre Swift (-10%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Julio Jones (+15%), Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst

Green Bay Packers

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: At least one (lowered, we should see plenty of lineups with multiple skill players without forcing two)

Group: Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jamaal Williams (-25%), Robert Tonyan (Q) (Aaron Jones removed, reports are he is unlikely to play, watch for any changes. Jamaal Williams added. Tonyan is expected to play)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Will Fuller, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks (+10%), Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins

Houston Texans

Key Player: Deshaun Watson

Setting: At least two

Group: David Johnson, Will FullerBrandin Cooks (+15%), Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins (Q) (Fells is an option for NFL DFS again if Akins sits)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan(Q) (Adams removed, Williams added)


Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.


 Jacksonville Jaguars

Key Player: Gardner Minshew

Setting: At least two

Group: James Robinson (-25%), DJ Chark (+15%), Laviska Shenault (+15%), Keelan Cole (+15%), James O’Shaughnessy

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Keenan Allen, Justin Jackson, Mike Williams (+10%), Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton

Kansas City Chiefs

Key Player: Patrick Mahomes

Setting: At least two

Group: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-25%), Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Le’Veon Bell, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle (Sammy Watkins is out again for week 7 NFL DFS. I want to be very careful with my shares of these last three)

Opposing Setting: At most one

Group: Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon, Tim Patrick

Los Angeles Chargers

Key Player: Justin Herbert

Setting: At least two

Group: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (+10%), Hunter Henry (-10%), Justin Jackson, Jalen Guyton (+10%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: James Robinson, DJ Chark (+10%), Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole

New England Patriots

Key Player: Cam Newton

Setting: At least one

Group: Julian Edelman, Damiere Byrd, James White (+15%), N’Keal HarryDamien Harris (Burkhead removed, feel free to mix him in. I want to manually limit the exposures to Patriots running backs across NFL DFS again this week)

Opposing Setting: At most one

Group: Jerick McKinnon (-15%), George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk

New Orleans Saints

Key Player: Drew Brees

Group Setting: At least two

Group: Alvin Kamara (-10%), Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith, Latavius Murray, Deonte Harris (+25%), Marquez Callaway (Michael Thomas is out with leg injuries and Emmanuel Sanders is on the Covid-19 list)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Mike Davis (+15%), DJ Moore, Robby Anderson

New York Jets

Key Player: Sam Darnold (Darnold is returning, be sure to reset saved lineups from Flacco)

Setting: At most one

Group: Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith, Denzel Mims, Braxton Berrios, Chris Herndon,  (Jamison Crowder out and removed. Any Jets running back value should take care of itself here)

Opposing setting: At least one

Group: Stefon Diggs, Devin SingletaryCole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Zack Moss


Check out the NFL DFS Content Schedule to keep up with all the latest articles, shows, podcasts and whatever else we come up with!


Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger

Setting: At least two

Group: James Conner (-10%), Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster (+25%), Diontae Johnson (+10%), James Washington, Eric Ebron (-15%)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Derrick Henry (+25%), A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (+15%), Adam Humphries

Seattle Seahawks

Key Player: Russell Wilson

Setting: At least two (this should be a popular option in NFL DFS, I want to open it up to some Carson shares to get different with this stack)

Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson, Greg Olsen, David Moore

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Kenyan Drake, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Chase Edmonds

San Francisco 49ers

Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo

Setting: At least one

Group: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel (+25%), Kendrick Bourne (+25%), Brandon Aiyuk (+25%), Jerick McKinnon

Opposing Setting: At most one

Group: Julian Edelman, James White (+15%), Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry

Tennessee Titans

Key Player: Ryan Tannehill

Setting: At least two (bumping to two)

Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries  (Henry wasn’t coming up as much as expected, no need to smash him down unless you’re getting too much)

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: James Conner, Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster (+15%), Diontae Johnson (+15%), Eric Ebron

Washington Football Team

Key Player: Kyle Allen (Washington Football could have some NFL DFS life in their matchup against Dallas this week)

Setting: At least one

Group: Terry McLaurinAntonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic, Dontrelle InmanIsaiah Wright

Opposing Setting: At least one

Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz


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Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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