With other sports winding down, the fantasy sports world will be squarely focused on NFL DFS over the coming weeks, as the season reaches its midway point. By now we know some things are true about this season. The NFC East is a disaster. New York Football is in shambles until you get west of Interstate-390. This crop of rookie quarterbacks looks special. The league has seen an overall uptick in offense and a downturn in holding calls. Injuries are abundant and unpredictable. The turf at Met Life Stadium is uninsurable.
Some of these are actionable items for NFL DFS and are accounted for across the site in projections and analysis. Make sure to read through the game by game breakdowns, check out the shows and just consume as much content as we can churn out during the week. Information is king in NFL DFS, with a sharp public we need to be on top of every possible angle. The Sunday update is in, as are the boost recommendations and any in/outs or injury updates as they currently stand.
Be sure to monitor your results as you go, particularly if you add the boosts. I focus primarily on FanDuel for my NFL DFS constructions, but I will be sure to run DraftKings crunches and post any differences. Your outcomes will vary if you use different projections or run your optimizer based on something other than Awesemo’s published projection set.
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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 7 – Sunday Update
Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
Lots of injuries are accounted for in the updated groups. Boosts have been added and will be tweaked as I run additional crunches.
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least two
Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake (-25%) (Hopkins is on track to play. I can take or leave Kenyan Drake as part of the stack, we should get him in some crunches anyway. If you’re feeling adventurous Andy Isabella can be added here. Our RB limiter will prevent the dual back builds across the NFL DFS slate)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Carson (+10% if you want some contrarian Carson), Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Greg Olsen
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least two
Group: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley (-5%), Russell Gage (-10%), Hayden Hurst
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kenny Golladay, D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones (+15%), T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Devin Singletary (Tyler Kroft should see most of the TE action here, but he seems unnecessary)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith, Denzel Mims, Braxton Berrios (Jamison Crowder out and removed, Mims and Berrios added, I’m not excited about anything from the Jets offense)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one
Group: D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Mike Davis (+15%) (Curtis Samuel removed, he is unlikely to play, Seth Roberts could see a few additional looks, I would sprinkle him in for some versions of this group. We should see a fair amount of lineups with one of the receivers plus Davis anyway, be sure to monitor your overall exposures)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara (-25% – only on the run-back spot, not in the stack), Jared Cook (-15%), Tre’Quan Smith, Latavius Murray, Deonte Harris (Michael Thomas will not play due to lingering leg injuries)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: At least two
Group: Giovani Bernard, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins (+15%), A.J. Green (+25%), Drew Sample (Joe Mixon is out, Bernard is already involved in the passing game and will see an increased workload, he should be popular yet justifiable for most NFL DFS formats)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt (-10%), Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry (+10%), David Njoku
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least one
Group: Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Rashard Higgins (Njoku back, Hooper out. Higgins added here as a bit of a dice roll receiver, be sure to limit exposure to him)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green (+10%), Giovani Bernard, Drew Sample
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott (+10%), Amari Cooper (+25%), CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock
Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (Sammy Watkins out. Use Le’Veon Bell at your own risk, we can mix and match shares of him, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, though they play better as parts of the KC stack instead of in a run-back role)
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matt Stafford
Setting: At least two
Group: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones (+15%), T.J. Hockenson, Danny Amendola, D’Andre Swift (-10%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Julio Jones (+15%), Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least one (lowered, we should see plenty of lineups with multiple skill players without forcing two)
Group: Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jamaal Williams (-25%), Robert Tonyan (Q) (Aaron Jones removed, reports are he is unlikely to play, watch for any changes. Jamaal Williams added. Tonyan is expected to play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Will Fuller, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks (+10%), Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least two
Group: David Johnson, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks (+15%), Randall Cobb, Jordan Akins (Q) (Fells is an option for NFL DFS again if Akins sits)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robert Tonyan(Q) (Adams removed, Williams added)
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Gardner Minshew
Setting: At least two
Group: James Robinson (-25%), DJ Chark (+15%), Laviska Shenault (+15%), Keelan Cole (+15%), James O’Shaughnessy
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Keenan Allen, Justin Jackson, Mike Williams (+10%), Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least two
Group: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-25%), Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Le’Veon Bell, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle (Sammy Watkins is out again for week 7 NFL DFS. I want to be very careful with my shares of these last three)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon, Tim Patrick
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least two
Group: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (+10%), Hunter Henry (-10%), Justin Jackson, Jalen Guyton (+10%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson, DJ Chark (+10%), Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At least one
Group: Julian Edelman, Damiere Byrd, James White (+15%), N’Keal Harry, Damien Harris (Burkhead removed, feel free to mix him in. I want to manually limit the exposures to Patriots running backs across NFL DFS again this week)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jerick McKinnon (-15%), George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Drew Brees
Group Setting: At least two
Group: Alvin Kamara (-10%), Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith, Latavius Murray, Deonte Harris (+25%), Marquez Callaway (Michael Thomas is out with leg injuries and Emmanuel Sanders is on the Covid-19 list)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis (+15%), DJ Moore, Robby Anderson
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold (Darnold is returning, be sure to reset saved lineups from Flacco)
Setting: At most one
Group: Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith, Denzel Mims, Braxton Berrios, Chris Herndon, (Jamison Crowder out and removed. Any Jets running back value should take care of itself here)
Opposing setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Zack Moss
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least two
Group: James Conner (-10%), Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster (+25%), Diontae Johnson (+10%), James Washington, Eric Ebron (-15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry (+25%), A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (+15%), Adam Humphries
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least two (this should be a popular option in NFL DFS, I want to open it up to some Carson shares to get different with this stack)
Group: Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Chris Carson, Greg Olsen, David Moore
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins (Q), Kenyan Drake, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Chase Edmonds
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Jimmy Garoppolo
Setting: At least one
Group: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel (+25%), Kendrick Bourne (+25%), Brandon Aiyuk (+25%), Jerick McKinnon
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Julian Edelman, James White (+15%), Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least two (bumping to two)
Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries (Henry wasn’t coming up as much as expected, no need to smash him down unless you’re getting too much)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Conner, Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster (+15%), Diontae Johnson (+15%), Eric Ebron
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Kyle Allen (Washington Football could have some NFL DFS life in their matchup against Dallas this week)
Setting: At least one
Group: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, J.D. McKissic, Dontrelle Inman, Isaiah Wright
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz
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