Thanksgiving is all about having way too much of everything. If you’re like me, your Thursday lineups flew up near the sun before Ezekiel Elliott sent you crashing back to Earth. In my specific case, fixing a rookie mistake — accidentally exporting the main slate from Cruncher — cost me a few precious minutes that would have been better served mixing up my running back exposures a bit more. But on the plus side, there really was a lot of turkey and, as much as that might have felt like Sunday, Week 12 is just getting started. More good news as we make NFL DFS picks this week, Taysom Hill is actually listed as a quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has an appropriate price this week.
The main slate has a full 11 games to offer us. Believe it or not the NFL is already done with bye weeks for the season. We have a number of high-upside stacking options and some explosive-looking game opportunities. Combining that with a ton of value created by injuries, COVID-19 absences and — this being 2020 and having 36 hours or so to go — probably a meteor strike, we should have a lot of lineups headed toward an extreme stars and scrubs focus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
As a quick note, if you made a bunch of changes to your existing rules the other day for the two game slate, make sure to reset to our usual norms. The list below is back to our typical setup. Be sure to check back first thing Sunday morning for changes and in-group boosts.
NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 12 – Sunday Update
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update:
Well, I mentioned that we were going to have a few changes and wow did we ever. With several unexpected COVID-19 scratches, including the entire Broncos QB depth chart, the value on the slate shook up like a fresh game of Boggle. Figuring out where everything is going to land is still a bit of a dicey proposition. If Royce Freeman is getting quarterback snaps at the running back position for Denver, he’ll be in play at his price. If Kendall Hinton sees all the action in the passing game, it’s going to be difficult to roster many Broncos. Either way, the Saints defense is likely to be popular at their price. Stay tuned for emerging news, for now I’ve accounted for all the in/outs that we know of at this point and added the boosts as usual.
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, Chase Edmonds, Kenyan Drake (I’m leaving the backs in the group but we aren’t getting to them very much without a boost, which I’m good with. Larry Fitzgerald is out)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry, James White (-15%)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least one (lowered)
Group: Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus (+15%) (Julio Jones is expected to miss this game. Todd Gurley is also out this week, Brian Hill is going to be popular and should come up on his own).
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Josh Jacobs (-15%), Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor (+10%), Henry Ruggs (+15%), Hunter Renfrow (+15%)
Buffalo Bills
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Zack Moss
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton (Austin Ekeler is expected to play, Kalen Ballage is expected to sit. At his price, we should get to some Ekeler in these lineups without forcing him)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater (Bridgewater is off of the injury report and is back to the starting role for Week 12)
Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore (+15%), Curtis Samuel (Christian McCaffrey is out again this week as expected)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Kyle Rudolph, Chad Beebe (+15%), Olabisi Johnson (+15%)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Brandon Allen (be sure to switch up from Joe Burrow)
Setting: At least one (lowered)
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard (Q) (Joe Mixon will miss Week 12 fantasy football)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate (+20%) (Running back Wayne Gallman will be popular and in play this week, we will get to him without forcing him into the run-back spot)
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At most one (changing this to at most given the lack of anything in the Cleveland passing game)
Group: Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins (Nick Chubb remains a player unlikely to get involved in the passing game. As such, Chubb is in play as an individual more than in stacks for Week 12 NFL DFS)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: James Robinson, Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, Collin Johnson, (knock James Robinson back by -15% if you’re inclined toward less of him in the run-back spot)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Kendall Hinton and/or Royce Freeman (keep an eye on news, if either gets the official nod or will officially be less involved, act accordingly. Ultimately, I don’t think we want much of this passing game at all)
Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy (+15%), Tim Patrick (+15%), Noah Fant (-25%), K.J. Hamler (+15%) (I’m keeping both Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon out on target volume again, the Broncos just are not throwing the ball to their running backs)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders (+25%), Jared Cook (+25%) (the Saints passing game is somewhat diminished with Taysom Hill at quarterback instead of Drew Brees. Hill threw the ball just 23 times in Week 11)
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines (+15%), T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal (Jonathan Taylor was a COVID-19 scratch this week. We should get to some of Mo Alie-Cox and Jordan Wilkins without including them in the group)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (-10%)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Mike Glennon (Glennon will take the reins in Jacksonville this week. For what it’s worth, Glennon apparently said he has no reason to hold back this week and plans to “let it rip” in the passing game.)
Setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson (+15%), Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, Collin Johnson
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Rashard Higgins
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least two
Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce (-15%), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (-35%), Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman (+25%), Demarcus Robinson (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski (I’m not going to force the running back situation here)
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least one
Group: Darren Waller (-15%), Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs (+15%), Hunter Renfrow (+15%), Josh Jacobs (we get about the same amount of Jacobs whether he’s in the group or not)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst (Julio Jones removed, he is expected to miss this one. I feel good limiting the run-back to these three options)
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Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least two
Group: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (+25%), Hunter Henry, Jalen Guyton (+25%), Austin Ekeler (-35%) (Ekeler is in, Kalen Ballage is out)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Zack Moss
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett (we don’t need to force the running backs with their limited volume)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Raheem Mostert, Richie James, Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel (+25%), Jordan Reed
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Ryan Fitzpatrick (Tua Tagovailoa is out, make sure to take care of this key player switch)
Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, Matt Breida (Myles Gaskin is out again, Salvon Ahmed will miss Week 12, I’m not sure we need either running back here but we’ll know by Sunday morning if we need to put them in our NFL DFS picks considerations)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Kyle Rudolph (-15%), Chad Beebe, Olabisi Johnson (This offense is going to be the Dalvin Cook show this weekend. Rudolph should see increased usage in the passing game with Adam Thielen and Irv Smith Jr. missing the game but we were getting slightly too much of him without the in-group downgrade)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore (+15%), Curtis Samuel
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd, N’Keal Harry, James White (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, Kenyan Drake (-15%), Chase Edmonds (-15%)
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Taysom Hill (Hill is actually a quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 12 NFL DFS)
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara (+15%), Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant (-15%), KJ Hamler
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: At least one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate (we should see plenty of Wayne Gallman on both DraftKings and FanDuel without forcing him)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard (-25%) (this should yield around 25% Bernard in Jones stacks instead of more than 50% without adjustment)
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold (be sure to change this one back from Joe Flacco)
Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki
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San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Nick Mullens
Setting: At least one
Group: Raheem Mostert, Richie James, Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel (+25%), Jordan Reed
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least two
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans (+10%), Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown (+10%) (I’m keeping both running backs out of this one)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown (+25%), Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith (-15%) (Derrick Henry should come up individually without forcing him into stacks)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines (-15%), T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Mo Alie-Cox (Jonathan Taylor removed)
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