The grind rolls on. Week 14 of the season brings us a large 13-game affair for out NFL DFS picks for the Sunday main slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The day features a six-game afternoon that should be a lot of fun for high scoring sweats atop GPP leaderboards across the NFL DFS industry. As always, our goal in this article is to review settings and groups for optimizers. We’re in search of a nicely balanced slate of lineups that is both highly correlated and properly leveraged against our projected ownership. Between this first look and the Sunday Update version, which is released first thing Sunday mornings, I will run thousands of combinations of lineups to dial in the correct boosts and combinations. Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool is a big part of this process. My strong recommendation is that you use these as building blocks along with those tools to make further tweaks of your own as we approach lock for NFL DFS Week 14.
NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 14 – Sunday Update
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update
This week’s update has been a project to get through, just ask anyone who was talking to me at 4 a.m. while I was crunching lineups. All the announced in/outs are accounted for and boost recommendations have been included. As always, the goal is to try to create properly correlated and leveraged lineups for each potential stack. These are intended for use alongside our Top Stacks Tool for the best overall approach. Adjusting which quarterbacks and stacks in line with Awesemo’s projected outcomes will impact your overall results.
NFL DFS Team Groups:
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella (+25%), Chase Edmonds (+15%), Larry Fitzgerald (+25%), Dan Arnold (I’m restricting Kenyan Drake but keeping Chase Edmonds based on passing game volume and overall projection. Larry Fitzgerald is due to return for Week 14 after being on the COVID-19 list the last two weeks. There are several similarly low-projected skill players in this group, making each option other than DeAndre Hopkins something of a dart throw on DraftKings and FanDuel. We’re barely getting to any of Fitgerald or Isabella despite the bumps)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton (+15%), Evan Engram (-10%), Golden Tate (+15%), Wayne Gallman (-35%) (I primarily want the pass catchers in the run-back spot here, but Gallman was coming up on his own with our “at most” setting, including him in the group allows us to limit him)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley(+15%), Hayden Hurst(-15%), Russell Gage (+5%), Christian Blake (+35%)(Julio Jones is out for Week 14 after a brief return. I’m pulling Todd Gurley from the group on passing game volume. Consider Christian Blake optional, we’re not getting much of him even with the boost. The minor bump on Gage is not a typo, I tried him at 10% and his exposure went berserk, bump it further at your own risk)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler (-25%), Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry (the -25% suppresses Ekeler’s otherwise over the top exposure in these stacks to a more manageable level)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis (-10%), Robby Anderson (-15%), Curtis Samuel, Brandon Zylstra (+15%) (Christian McCaffrey is out once again for Week 14, D.J. Moore will join him on the sidelines)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Tim Patrick (+10%), Jerry Jeudy (+10%), Noah Fant (-15%), KJ Hamler (+10%)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky
Setting: At least one (I was considering making this “at most” but the holes in the Lions’ secondary are massive enough for even Trubisky to put up a good start that supports multiple skill players. I don’t want to force it with two, but I won’t reject it off-hand)
Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney (+25%), Anthony Miller (+25%), David Montgomery, Cole Kmet (-15%) (Kmet appeared to take the reins at the tight end position, dominating targets last week. I would choose him over veteran Jimmy Graham at the tight end in this group for Week 14 DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Duke Johnson (-25%), Keke Coutee, Chad Hansen, Jordan Akins
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Brandon Allen
Setting: At least one
Group: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, A.J. Green (+10%), Giovani Bernard (Not many changes here, Joe Mixon will remain on the shelf for Week 14 DraftKings and FanDuel purposes. Drew Sample is the tight end in this offense if you want to mix him in to get some variance at the position.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott (-15%), Amari Cooper (+35%), CeeDee Lamb (+35%), Dalton Schultz (-10%), Michael Gallup (+35%)
Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper (+35%), CeeDee Lamb (+15%), Dalton Schultz (-15%), Michael Gallup (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Tyler Boyd (+25%), Tee Higgins (+25%), A.J. Green (+25%) (I’m restricting this to the three wideouts for the run-back from the Bengals offense for the first cut this week, our “at most” will allow some shares of Giovani Bernard without doubling up on the offense or including him in the group)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock
Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy (+25%), Tim Patrick, Noah Fant (-25%), K.J. Hamler (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis (-15%), Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Brandon Zylstra (+25%)
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift (Q) (+10%), Marvin Jones (+20%), Danny Amendola (+35%), T.J. Hockenson (-25%), Quintez Cephus (+25%) (D’Andre Swift is officially questionable but seems likely to play. Kenny Golladay will miss Week 14)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones (-15%), Allen Lazard (+10%), Robert Tonyan (+15%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: At least two
Group: Aaron Jones (-35%), Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard (+25%) (I’m including Jones again so we can control his exposures in Green Bay stacks correctly)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift (Q) (-10%), Marvin Jones (+10%), T.J. Hockenson, Quintez Cephus, Danny Amendola (+15%)
[CARUSO]
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks (+15%), Duke Johnson (-25%), Keke Coutee (+15%), Jordan Akins (-15%), Chad Hansen (David Johnson is out again, which should return Duke Johnson to relevance in this group. The Texans will be significantly less popular on DraftKings and FanDuel this week than they were last time around)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney (+15%), Anthony Miller (+15%), David Montgomery (-15%), Cole Kmet
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox (Feel free to decide between the tight ends, Burton is seeing more red zone volume while Cox is on the field more often. I am not going to force Jonathan Taylor here either, if someone is catching the ball out of the Colts backfield it will most likely be Hines, which is better for DraftKings purposes than FanDuel.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Mike Glennon
Setting: At most one
Group: D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, Tyler Eifert (-15%) (I’m keeping this at most one and without James Robinson in the group. Be wary of loading up on this Jaguars offense Robinson’s projection is pulling him naturally into some optimizer builds on both FanDuel and DraftKings)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firkser (similarly, we should get lots of Derrick Henry in lineups without forcing him in a negatively correlated run-back)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least two (the Chiefs are one of Awesemo’s top stacks among NFL DFS picks for Week 14)
Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson (+10%), Mecole Hardman (+10%) (I’m holding off on including either running back. I can see using Hardman and Robinson in a rotation on DraftKings and FanDuel instead of including both.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, DeAndre Washington (-35%) (Myles Gaskin is out, DeAndre Washington should be a popular value play. We would get some shares of Washington here without forcing him in the run-back, but I want to control his exposure more than that)
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: At least one
Group: Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow (Josh Jacobs is due back for Week 14 but I don’t think we need to force him)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox
Find The Best Betting Odds All In One Place
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re getting bang for your betting dollars. Hedge your NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel by enjoying our new FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real time. It’s a great way to hedge your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE.
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At most two
Group: Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler (-35%), Mike Williams, Hunter Henry (-25%), Jalen Guyton
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Christian Blake (+15%)
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant (+15%), Lynn Bowden (+15%), DeAndre Washington (Myles Gaskin is out, I added Lynn Bowden back into the group. Mack Hollins stays out on projection, but I will include him in a few versions of this group. DeAndre Washington will be a popular value play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson (+15%), Mecole Hardman (+15%) (Again, I would consider a rotation of Hardman and Robinson.)
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Irv Smith (I’m getting plenty of Dalvin Cook on his own, Irv Smith‘s return simplifies the target discussion in the passing game.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans (+15%), Antonio Brown (+15%), Rob Gronkowski
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Taysom Hill
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith (Once again I can take or leave Latavius Murray in this group for Week 14 DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert (-35%), Jalen Reagor (+50%), Greg Ward (+50%), Zach Ertz (-35%), Travis Fulgham (+50%) (It is difficult to get to anything but the tight end spot as the run-back here)
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones (Jones is due back from injury, be sure to switch this up from Colt McCoy if he does play)
Setting: At most one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton (+20%), Evan Engram (-35%), Golden Tate (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds (-15%), Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: At most one
Group: Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith, Braxton Berrios (Jamison Crowder is likely to miss Week 14, we’re adding Braxton Berrios in projections and in this group. Denzel Mims is out for Week 14 NFL DFS action on DraftKings and FanDuel)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jacob Hollister (-25%), David Moore
[NFL-Content-Links]
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Jalen Hurts (Carson Wentz has been benched for Week 14 in a continuation of 2020’s NFL quarterback carousel)
Setting: At most one
Group: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert (-50%), Jalen Reagor (+25%), Greg Ward (+25%), Zach Ertz (-50%), Travis Fulgham (+25%) (I’m getting only the tight end position without the adjustments here)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Thomas (-15%), Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At most two
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, Jacob Hollister (-35%), Chris Carson (-35%) (Adding Carson here to control exposures)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Jeff Smith
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Nick Mullens
Setting: At most one
Group: Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel, Jordan Reed (-25%), Brandon Aiyuk
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Cam Sims
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least two
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans (+25%_, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firsker
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, Tyler Eifert (-25%)
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Alex Smith
Setting: At most one
Group: Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic (+15%), Logan Thomas, Cam Sims (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kendrick Bourne (+15%), Deebo Samuel, Jordan Reed (-10%), Brandon Aiyuk(+10%)
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS picks content? Can’t get enough daily fantasy football? We have loads of NFL DFS picks articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
